UNC @ Charlotte

[Calheel]

I think you're probably right about Gio, but you're way overrating Johnson imo. He's decently athletic but he's so slow to recognize pressure that it doesn't matter, defenders gain too much ground on him and he takes a bunch of sacks and it's why he's gotten injured every single season he's started as a college quarterback. His career pressure-to-sack ratio per PFF is ~18%, compared to Lopez's ~12% - 15 is about average. And his downfield processing is just as bad; the primary issue I had with his tape when he transferred was how long he held on to the ball even when he had open reads.

Johnson's one advantage over Gio right now is that he can make some timing throws, where he doesn't have to read a defense and the ball's location is pre-determined, with regularity to the short and intermediate parts of the field. Similar to what we've already seen, that's good for a scripted series or in garbage time, but a defense can pretty easily adjust to him after a quick look. the ceiling and floor for this offense are much much lower if he's named starter.

Max looked much better in his last two quarters of football (3d Q Minnesota and 4th Q TCU). It would be hard for anyone to be as bad as Gio the last two games. I think the floor with Gio is much, much lower - even if the ceiling is potentially higher.

I mean Gio had a 1.9 QBR against TCU. A 1.9. That is almost impossibly bad.

 

[HeelYeah2012]

I’d be fine putting one of the freshmen in. The replacement doesn’t need to be Max. And I’d be fine giving Gio one more game to get it figured out. But Gio needs to get significantly better to justify his role with this team.

No question Gio had a horrible game against TCU. I didn’t think he was nearly as horrible against Charlotte.

There is a lot working against whoever the QB is right now (awful center play, awful OC, etc) so I’m not sure anyone is going to look great for us unfortunately. But here are my thoughts:

With Max, the issue is it’s his last year of eligibility and he’s a statue back there. Almost literally lost his leg 12 months ago and wasn’t very mobile even before that.

With the freshmen, throwing them into a seemingly no win situation before they are ready could shatter their confidence and harm their future.

With Gio, neither of those things apply. We need to figure out if he’s our guy for the next two years or not.

And it helps that I happen to think Gio is our best option at this moment. Clearly I would be fine starting Max if I thought Max could win us 8 games and Gio only 4. But I think we are most likely headed towards 5-7 wins regardless, and based on that premise I think Gio is who should be starting right now.

 

[Calheel]

No question Gio had a horrible game against TCU. I didn’t think he was nearly as horrible against Charlotte.

There is a lot working against whoever the QB is right now (awful center play, awful OC, etc) so I’m not sure anyone is going to look great for us unfortunately. But here are my thoughts:

With Max, the issue is it’s his last year of eligibility and he’s a statue back there. Almost literally lost his leg 12 months ago and wasn’t very mobile even before that.

With the freshmen, throwing them into a seemingly no win situation before they are ready could shatter their confidence and harm their future.

With Gio, neither of those things apply. We need to figure out if he’s our guy for the next two years or not.

And it helps that I happen to think Gio is our best option at this moment. Clearly I would be fine starting Max if I thought Max could win us 8 games and Gio only 4. But I think we are most likely headed towards 5-7 wins regardless, and based on that premise I think Gio is who should be starting right now.

Gio is going to need to get A LOT better for us to win anywhere near 5-7 games. Right now I only feel good about Richmond, and even that is questionable.

 

[akillesheel]

Max looked much better in his last two quarters of football (3d Q Minnesota and 4th Q TCU). It would be hard for anyone to be as bad as Gio the last two games. I think the floor with Gio is much, much lower - even if the ceiling is potentially higher.

I mean Gio had a 1.9 QBR against TCU. A 1.9. That is almost impossibly bad.

we've had this argument about johnson on IC, it's not really worth rehashing. he "looked much better" against minnesota because he was throwing exclusively within 5 yards of the LOS; the first time he was asked to do more was when he got injured. he "looked much better" against TCU because he was playing against a garbage time defense.

 

[Zoo_View]

No question Gio had a horrible game against TCU. I didn’t think he was nearly as horrible against Charlotte.

There is a lot working against whoever the QB is right now (awful center play, awful OC, etc) so I’m not sure anyone is going to look great for us unfortunately. But here are my thoughts:

With Max, the issue is it’s his last year of eligibility and he’s a statue back there. Almost literally lost his leg 12 months ago and wasn’t very mobile even before that.

With the freshmen, throwing them into a seemingly no win situation before they are ready could shatter their confidence and harm their future.

With Gio, neither of those things apply. We need to figure out if he’s our guy for the next two years or not.

And it helps that I happen to think Gio is our best option at this moment. Clearly I would be fine starting Max if I thought Max could win us 8 games and Gio only 4. But I think we are most likely headed towards 5-7 wins regardless, and based on that premise I think Gio is who should be starting right now.

Let’s definitely NOT “Chuckie Burnette” any of the freshmen QB’s behind this mediocre offensive line.

 

[HeelYeah2012]

Gio is going to need to get A LOT better for us to win anywhere near 5-7 games. Right now I only feel good about Richmond, and even that is questionable.

Even if you took the extreme position that Richmond is the last game we’ll be favored in, we aren’t going to be a heavy underdog in any game other than Clemson. Probability tells you we’ll win at least a few more. Plus, we have a home game against Stanford still on the schedule, road game against a horrible Wake team, plus several toss ups.

The following are my estimated win probabilities of the remaining games. Taking these on top of our current 1-1 record yields 6.03 expected wins. I threw these together quickly but even if you tinker with these quite a bit, a clear path to 5+ wins is easily there.

Richmond 0.98
@ UCF 0.40
Clemson 0.05
@Cal 0.45
Virginia 0.55
@ Syracuse 0.35
Stanford 0.75
@ Wake 0.65
Duke 0.50
@ State 0.35

 

[farce©]

I don’t think UNC is paying Gio $4 million to wear a ball cap on the sideline.

 

[HeelYeah2012]

Let’s definitely NOT “Chuckie Burnette” any of the freshmen QB’s behind this mediocre offensive line.

At least not yet. The freshmen, like the whole team, will get more and more comfortable in practice each week. The offensive line will also get healthier.

I can see a path where Baker is ready to start @ Cal or something coming off a bye week on October 17th, with Blaske and Christo Kelly both starting on the OL. That’s a lot different than throwing him in against TCU would’ve been.

 

[HeelYeah2012]

I don’t think UNC is paying Gio $4 million to wear a ball cap on the sideline.

He’s being paid $1 million this year per Ben Sherman’s reporting. Your point still stands but just wanted to set it straight what we paid him. Originally it was reported 2 years at $2 million per year, but that was overstated.

 

[farce©]

He’s being paid $1 million this year per Ben Sherman’s reporting. Your point still stands but just wanted to set it straight what we paid him. Originally it was reported 2 years at $2 million per year, but that was overstated.

Good. I was using this article as my reference.

 

[Zoo_View]

At least not yet. The freshmen, like the whole team, will get more and more comfortable in practice each week. The offensive line will also get healthier.

I can see a path where Baker is ready to start @ Cal or something coming off a bye week on October 17th, with Blaske and Christo Kelly both starting on the OL. That’s a lot different than throwing him in against TCU would’ve been.

You’re too young to remember Chuckie Burnette.

 

[Calheel]

Even if you took the extreme position that Richmond is the last game we’ll be favored in, we aren’t going to be a heavy underdog in any game other than Clemson. Probability tells you we’ll win at least a few more. Plus, we have a home game against Stanford still on the schedule, road game against a horrible Wake team, plus several toss ups.

The following are my estimated win probabilities of the remaining games. Taking these on top of our current 1-1 record yields 6.03 expected wins. I threw these together quickly but even if you tinker with these quite a bit, a clear path to 5+ wins is easily there.

Richmond 0.98
@ UCF 0.40
Clemson 0.05
@Cal 0.45
Virginia 0.55
@ Syracuse 0.35
Stanford 0.75
@ Wake 0.65
Duke 0.50
@ State 0.35

There is no way Richmond is 98%. Take off the blue shaded glasses or you will be sorely disappointed. Richmond has a history of beating mediocre ACC teams, including us. No way the crap fest we have put on the field the last two weeks has a 98% chance to beat anyone.

 

[Calheel]

we've had this argument about johnson on IC, it's not really worth rehashing. he "looked much better" against minnesota because he was throwing exclusively within 5 yards of the LOS; the first time he was asked to do more was when he got injured. he "looked much better" against TCU because he was playing against a garbage time defense.

Gio was playing against that same garbage time defense and was getting stripped sacked for a defensive TD.

Again, I am not saying Max is the answer. I am saying Gio isn’t. Or at least he hasn’t been. I am not willing to give up on him but that leash better be short.

 

[HeelYeah2012]

There is no way Richmond is 98%. Take off the blue shaded glasses or you will be sorely disappointed. Richmond has a history of beating mediocre ACC teams, including us. No way the crap fest we have put on the field the last two weeks has a 98% chance to beat anyone.

If you really think we should change it to 0.90 instead of 0.98 that’s fine. It’s at least 90% likely to be a win.

 

[Calheel]

If you really think we should change it to 0.90 instead of 0.98 that’s fine. It’s at least 90% likely to be a win.

I think it is probably closer to 80%. Richmond is a good bit better than Charlotte, but we are at home and I keep holding out hope, perhaps naively, that Bill can actually improve this team.

FWIW, Sagarin projects an 18 point spread, which would make an 88% win probability.

 

[05C40]

You want to knowhow stupid I am? Well it wasn't until about 60m seconds ago that I realized that this entire thread is about the football game between the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and the University of North Carolina at Charlotte, played in Charlotte, NC. I has assumed that game was merely a pretext for a thread discussing the pros and cons of UNC-C. And I legitimately thought the thread tilte was for UNC at Charlotte, shortened to UNC@Charlotte. Every time I reviewed the thread, the posts were mostly about the game and the team, really nothing about UNC-C. Damn, I am stupid.