HeelYeah2012
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You don’t think? Why not?
TCU is -3.5 at the moment and I’m not sure a lot is going to change one way or the other between now and kickoff.
UNC Football Catch-all | Bill Belichick Era underway
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TCU is -3.5 at the moment and I’m not sure a lot is going to change one way or the other between now and kickoff.
Those opening lines are very soft right now, with very little money bet. We were a favorite over TCU earlier in the summer. There is more movement in opening week lines than any other week of the year (recall we went from being a 2 point underdog to a favorite against Minnesota before kickoff last year).
Moreover, Sunday and especially Monday will be non-stop Belichick ball washing by ESPN. The line will move in response as the public starts to put money on UNC. I am confident UNC will be a favorite by kickoff.
superrific
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Whew! I was worried our season wasn't going to be all that successful.
If only public confidence = success, then maybe Colorado would have won more than 4 games in Prime's first year.
superrific
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Just ask Duke hoops -- or state for that matter -- how much happiness pre-season expectations ultimately bring . . .
CFordUNC
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I've about settled on my season W/L predictions for this fall. Right now I've got:
TCU- L
Charlotte- W
Richmond- W
UCF- W
Clemson- L
California- W
Virginia- W
Syracuse- L
Stanford- W
Wake Forest- W
Duke- W
NC State- L
8-4 (5-3 ACC)
"Eight wins is pretty good around here..." and all of that.
TCU- L
Charlotte- W
Richmond- W
UCF- W
Clemson- L
California- W
Virginia- W
Syracuse- L
Stanford- W
Wake Forest- W
Duke- W
NC State- L
8-4 (5-3 ACC)
"Eight wins is pretty good around here..." and all of that.
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superrific
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wait, ncsu is a loss?
CFordUNC
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Unfortunately, until I see a University of North Carolina football team start to beat NC State with any regularity, I've got to begrudgingly put it down as a loss. I hate them more than I can put into words but they own us this century- 16-9 I believe it is- and I'd bet that we were favored in maybe 22 or 23 or those. I know that Belichick ain't Mack, Fedora, or Butch Davis, but until I see UNC actually come out and match State's annual piss and vinegar in that game with my own eyes, I can't in good faith project UNC to win- and especially not on the road.
superrific
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I know nothing about the relative strengths of the two teams. I just thought you tended to be more of an optimist than that. Not saying you're wrong. Just surprised.
CFordUNC
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Hey, 8-4 overall is pretty optimistic I think! I just have been broken by UNC football against NC State over the last several years to be able to confidently predict a win in Raleigh. Hopefully with a new sheriff in town things will be different.
superrific
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So don't do it confidently LOL.
That's my first emoji ever so if I used it wrong -- well, that's why I don't use emojis. I generally don't know what they are supposed to convey
You would lose that bet -- by a lot. I think you have selective amnesia about how bad some of our teams have been this millennium.
Game 1 is so important. Maybe the most important game for Carolina football since the ACCCG against Clemson ten years ago. GOAT coach in his first college game on national TV with the gameday crew in town against a good opponent. We win against TCU and we're looking at a lot of positive publicity as we should be able to get a run for the first half of the season.
CFordUNC
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I don't think so. Since I started at UNC in fall 2009, the only years where NC State would have been favored would have been 2017 and 2018, and possibly in 2021. I know for a fact that UNC was favored in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2019, 2020, 2022, 2023, and 2024.
Well you conveniently ignored the first nine years of the millennium, which included some of our very worse teams.
We were underdogs in 17, 18 & 21 (by six points). I also believe we were underdogs in 2014, but I am looking for confirmation. Historical point spread data before 2015 is hard to locate.
CFordUNC
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Sorry, I should have said "in the last decade and a half."
We'd have likely been favored in 2000 and 2001, they'd have certainly been favored in 2002, 2003, and 2004, maybe in 2005, and we'd have been favored in 2006, 2007, and 2008.
I know we weren't underdogs in 2014 because the game was in Kenan and Dave Doeren made a huge deal out in the postgame presser of beating us 35-7 as underdogs.
Point remains, though, that they've been kicking our asses way more often than not this century, and way more often than not UNC is favored.
State was favored in 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2017, 2018, and 2021 -- basically all our crap years. So State has been favored 10 of the last 25 and we have been favored 15 of the last 25.
Davis and Brown were not good against State. Fedora was pretty good -- as was Bunting.
CFordUNC
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Awesome find! That's fascinating. That all makes sense now seeing the data. So it basically confirms what both of us were saying after my initial flub: State was favored a lot more frequently in the early 2000's when we had our worst teams, and UNC has been favored way more frequently since 2009 (which is my best frame of reference since it's when I started with UNC).
Regardless, though, UNC has no business being 5-11 against them over the last decade-and-a-half. With the exception of their two 9-win teams in 2017 and 2018, they've really sucked, and they've still beaten us even when we've had some of our most prolific quarterbacks in school history (Renner, Williams, Trubisky, Howell, Maye).
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