UNC Football Catch-all | Bill Belichick Era underway

[Carolina Fever]

I think football will remain ultra popular...and it will remain so in college. For about 20-30 schools who truly can and will compete.

I dont think college football will maintain its popularity everywhere else.

By the way, we will never be one of those 20 or 30. We dont have the alumni numbers or statewide buy-in for it.

I think what will happen everywhere else will be the realization that they aren't even playing the same sport as the big boys and thus a relative disinterest in their own school's team.

I'm not sure. Look at somewhere like App State. They play in a crappy conference and are not a big time program, but they still manage to get every home game sold out, and the students and people up there in Boone are really into it. I do think it was a better product for them, though, when they played in the playoff subdivision and had rivalries with other schools in their conference that were closer. Schools like them and Marshall and James Madison are in a weird mid tier where they are still popular with the students and locals but will never be a real playoff contender in the FBS playoffs.

 

[Zoo_View]

I'm not sure. Look at somewhere like App State. They play in a crappy conference and are not a big time program, but they still manage to get every home game sold out, and the students and people up there in Boone are really into it. I do think it was a better product for them, though, when they played in the playoff subdivision and had rivalries with other schools in their conference that were closer. Schools like them and Marshall and James Madison are in a weird mid tier where they are still popular with the students and locals but will never be a real playoff contender in the FBS playoffs.

I don’t know if the App State or JMU or Marshall football programs make money or are at least “revenue neutral.”

I doubt those football programs make money. Even if the football programs break even, the athletic departments lose money.

 

[Carolina Fever]

I don’t know if the App State or JMU or Marshall football programs make money or are at least “revenue neutral.”

I doubt those football programs make money. Even if the football programs break even, the athletic departments lose money.

The most recent I could find online was from 2022, and it showed App's expenses were more than their revenue by about $23,000. I guess they are making more money now in the FBS division than they did in the FCS division. But I can see a point in the future where the bigger programs just break off and have a smaller league with everyone under one umbrella with divisions like the NFL and conferences are done away with all together for them. I would say at least 32 schools and no more than 64.

 

[Zoo_View]

The most recent I could find online was from 2022, and it showed App's expenses were more than their revenue by about $23,000. I guess they are making more money now in the FBS division than they did in the FCS division. But I can see a point in the future where the bigger programs just break off and have a smaller league with everyone under one umbrella with divisions like the NFL and conferences are done away with all together for them. I would say at least 32 schools and no more than 64.

Agree, mostly.

App State went FBS in 2014. If the football program was going to make money, it would have done so by now.

 

[Bigs23]

Most programs have never had a shot at a title. This isn’t new. People like football. That’s not changing.

 

[SnoopRob]

Coming into our football season this year is the most excited I've been about Carolina Football since July 14, 2010, which was the most excited I'd been about Carolina Football since 7:29pm on November 8, 1997.

I don't think this team has the ceiling (or possibly not even the floor) of either of those teams, but I'm excited about the possibilities for Carolina Football. For so much of my time as a fan (especially since Mack left for Texas), Carolina Football has often seemed to aim for a little better than decent and typically falls just short of that goal. While I don't know if we'll have great success this year, or even at all under Belichick, at least it feels like we're finally trying.

 

[SnoopRob]

Totally agree. That’s where I’m at too. I think we’ve probably got a 6-win roster but that the Belichick Effect will have us win 8 almost solely by virtue of not beating ourselves.

I think we have a 6-win roster and a 10-win schedule...so 8-wins feels like the mid-point of that.

I think 8-wins would be a good enough season, but it's hard not to want more given how weak this schedule is.

 

[SnoopRob]

I think football will remain ultra popular...and it will remain so in college. For about 20-30 schools who truly can and will compete.

I dont think college football will maintain its popularity everywhere else.

By the way, we will never be one of those 20 or 30. We dont have the alumni numbers or statewide buy-in for it.

I think what will happen everywhere else will be the realization that they aren't even playing the same sport as the big boys and thus a relative disinterest in their own school's team.

It appears that we're headed toward a future where the SEC & B1G break away with a few additional schools to form a new top tier for CFB. I think that all the teams that are included in that transition will be very excited about CFB, at least in the near to medium term future. For those 40-50 teams, while every team won't really be an NC contender, being in the highest tier will be enough to maintain high interest and momentum.

I think for the G5 programs, where competing for the NC was never consistently (or even occasionally) realistic, that not a lot will change. Football at those schools have often been about conference championships and rivalries and getting back to campus to cheer for your team. It's possible that the popularity of CFB at those schools fall off, but the way that football is perceived at those schools doesn't have to change.

I think the biggest unknown is what is going to happen to the former P5 schools who don't make it into the new SEC/B1G top tier and end up being the new 2nd tier of CFB. A lot of those schools, while not NC contenders on anything like a consistent basis, at least (A) had a reasonable path to being an NC contender if the stars lined up for a year or two and (B) got to play legit NC contenders within conference on an annual basis. If that goes away based on the potential breakaway of the SEC/B1G + a few other schools, I'm not sure how the fans of those schools respond to this change. Do they accept that winning whatever national-level championship is available plus a conference championship is worthwhile and stay engaged in CFB? Or do they see themselves as the victims of all the realignment which has and will occur and simply check out of CFB based on no longer being in the highest tier? I have no idea what fans of these schools left behind by the potential breakaway of the SEC/B1G/other teams do when they are no longer in the top tier of CFB.

 

[Calheel]

I think we have a 6-win roster and a 10-win schedule...so 8-wins feels like the mid-point of that.

I think 8-wins would be a good enough season, but it's hard not to want more given how weak this schedule is.

We don't really know how weak the schedule is. Arizona State was preseason last in the Big12 last year. Preseason rankings have not been very accurate -- especially in the ACC. Let's revisit schedule strength in about three months.

 

[Calheel]

Agree, mostly.

App State went FBS in 2014. If the football program was going to make money, it would have done so by now.

Absent some evidence to the contrary, I suspect App State football has been making money for quite a long time. If there is an athletic department deficit, that is because of the nonrevenue sports.

 

[ZZLPHeels]

I’m stoked for this season. We have the greatest living NFL coach and arguably the GOAT on the sidelines for us. We have an entirely new roster and an easy schedule. We have every single game sold out. We have the eyes of the nation on us. Our first game is prime time, under the lights, with the Gameday crew in town. Let’s fucking go.

 

[sringwal]

 

[DiehardHeelFan]

 

[SnoopRob]

We don't really know how weak the schedule is. Arizona State was preseason last in the Big12 last year. Preseason rankings have not been very accurate -- especially in the ACC. Let's revisit schedule strength in about three months.

You're correct that there could be some reevaluation of the schedule difficulty later in the year based on the performance of the teams we play. Of course, to make a major difference in our expectations, numerous teams we play would have to end up being significantly better than expected now, but that is possible and, if it occurred, we'd need to adjust what our expectations should have been for this schedule.

But barring that type of unforeseen change, and we certainly can't know that from here, it's a bit difficult to not wish that we were in a better spot to take advantage of what is currently perceived as a weak schedule.

 

[Calheel]

You're correct that there could be some reevaluation of the schedule difficulty later in the year based on the performance of the teams we play. Of course, to make a major difference in our expectations, numerous teams we play would have to end up being significantly better than expected now, but that is possible and, if it occurred, we'd need to adjust what our expectations should have been for this schedule.

But barring that type of unforeseen change, and we certainly can't know that from here, it's a bit difficult to not wish that we were in a better spot to take advantage of what is currently perceived as a weak schedule.

I think the weak schedule thing is a bit overblown. The teams we play are mostly bunched around the 40-70 overall category, just like us. The difference between a team ranked 14th in the ACC and 6th in the ACC is not that big. This schedule seems very similar to all of our other schedules of the past decade or so. If we are successful compared to our historical norm, I don't think it will be because of the schedule.

 

[Oddball]

I still enjoy watching competitive athletics especially at a high level with high stakes.

I consume almost none of the pre and post game stuff. That shit just doesn’t interest me.

I actually started to enjoy soccer (EPL) specifically bc once I was 30-ish i couldn't sleep past 9am anyway, so was up on weekend mornings.

And the pregame shows were such ass that I eventually found my way to the live sporting action that was on and enjoyed it since it was the highest level soccer I had ever seen... the game at that level (and world cup) is just different. So i have the shitty pregame shows to thank for that!

Also agree that the force feeding of the NFL upon us regardless of time of year is nothing short of gavage. I checked out back in the "Tim Tebow" era, that shit killed my espn viewership and overall nfl care factor

 

[SnoopRob]

I think the weak schedule thing is a bit overblown. The teams we play are mostly bunched around the 40-70 overall category, just like us. The difference between a team ranked 14th in the ACC and 6th in the ACC is not that big. This schedule seems very similar to all of our other schedules of the past decade or so. If we are successful compared to our historical norm, I don't think it will be because of the schedule.

I agree that a lot of the teams we play are bunched around 40-70. There are a handful of likely wins on this schedule (Charlotte, Richmond, Stanford, Wake, Virginia?) and only 1 likely loss (Clemson). If these games go as they should, we're 5-1 in the "should be" games. The remainder of our games (TCU, UCF, Cal?, Cuse, dook, State) are toss-ups that will likely be close games. If we go .500 in those games, we'll end 8-4...which is why I say that we should be an 8-win team based on the schdule. If we finish with less than 8 wins, it means we either blew at least one of the "should win" games or we failed to go .500 in the toss up games. And either of those outcomes are a disappointment based on expectations for the season.

I also would argue that the "weak schedule" thing is pretty appropriate. Using Phil Steele's numbers, we have the 67th hardest schdule in CFB this year. The only P4 teams with an easier schedule are UCF (70), Texas Tech (72), SMU (74), FSU (75), & Virginia (89). That leaves us with the 6th easiest schedule among the P4. We only have one game where we shouldn't be favored or essentially a toss-up. That is an easy schedule, even compared to our normal schedules where we often have 2-3 games where we're a distinct underdog.

The fact that a schedule this weak doesn't have us placed for a potential 10-win season is a part of what is frustrating. If we were even a fringe top-30 team, we would likely be distinctly favored in 10 of our games, with Clemson a likely loss and TCU a toss-up (but likely marginally favored due to being at home). The fact that we're counting on simply playing to a mediocre standard to get to 8 wins is a part of what is frustrating.

As I said earlier, I'm excited about the potential for Carolina Football under Belichick, but it's a bit disheartening to look at this year's schedule and know that with just a "very good" (top-30) team, we could be looking at a 10-win season (which we haven't had in 10 years and of which we've only had 4 in the last 40 years).

 

[Calheel]

I agree that a lot of the teams we play are bunched around 40-70. There are a handful of likely wins on this schedule (Charlotte, Richmond, Stanford, Wake, Virginia?) and only 1 likely loss (Clemson). If these games go as they should, we're 5-1 in the "should be" games. The remainder of our games (TCU, UCF, Cal?, Cuse, dook, State) are toss-ups that will likely be close games. If we go .500 in those games, we'll end 8-4...which is why I say that we should be an 8-win team based on the schdule. If we finish with less than 8 wins, it means we either blew at least one of the "should win" games or we failed to go .500 in the toss up games. And either of those outcomes are a disappointment based on expectations for the season.

I also would argue that the "weak schedule" thing is pretty appropriate. Using Phil Steele's numbers, we have the 67th hardest schdule in CFB this year. The only P4 teams with an easier schedule are UCF (70), Texas Tech (72), SMU (74), FSU (75), & Virginia (89). That leaves us with the 6th easiest schedule among the P4. We only have one game where we shouldn't be favored or essentially a toss-up. That is an easy schedule, even compared to our normal schedules where we often have 2-3 games where we're a distinct underdog.

The fact that a schedule this weak doesn't have us placed for a potential 10-win season is a part of what is frustrating. If we were even a fringe top-30 team, we would likely be distinctly favored in 10 of our games, with Clemson a likely loss and TCU a toss-up (but likely marginally favored due to being at home). The fact that we're counting on simply playing to a mediocre standard to get to 8 wins is a part of what is frustrating.

As I said earlier, I'm excited about the potential for Carolina Football under Belichick, but it's a bit disheartening to look at this year's schedule and know that with just a "very good" (top-30) team, we could be looking at a 10-win season (which we haven't had in 10 years and of which we've only had 4 in the last 40 years).

I just don't see the schedule as materially different than in years past.

Let's just look at last year.
Charlotte and Central is basically the same as Charlotte and Richmond.
Minnesota and JMU is easier than TCU and UCF.
Our ACC schedule last year was easier than this year projects to be.
And yet, we were 6-7.

Or look at 2023
App and Campbell about the same as Charlotte and Richmond
Minnesota and SCAR about the same as TCU and UCF
The ACC schedule was about the same, too.

Or we could go on and on. Playing in the ACC Coastal meant fairly easy schedules. Unless we had Clemson or ND, there wasn't much meat on the bone. And this year is basically the same as all those prior years.

I mean if we are playing the 50th easiest schedule or the 60th easiest or the 70th easiest, it really does not make a difference in terms of our overall record. The record will turn much more on injuries, preparation and ability to win evenly matched games.

 

[uncjhodges]

I just don't see the schedule as materially different than in years past.

Let's just look at last year.
Charlotte and Central is basically the same as Charlotte and Richmond.
Minnesota and JMU is easier than TCU and UCF.
Our ACC schedule last year was easier than this year projects to be.
And yet, we were 6-7.

Or look at 2023
App and Campbell about the same as Charlotte and Richmond
Minnesota and SCAR about the same as TCU and UCF
The ACC schedule was about the same, too.

Or we could go on and on. Playing in the ACC Coastal meant fairly easy schedules. Unless we had Clemson or ND, there wasn't much meat on the bone. And this year is basically the same as all those prior years.

I mean if we are playing the 50th easiest schedule or the 60th easiest or the 70th easiest, it really does not make a difference in terms of our overall record. The record will turn much more on injuries, preparation and ability to win evenly matched games.

Our last 2-3 years under Mack the schedule was a joke, which is why a lot of people were done with Mack well before he got let go

 

[Calheel]

Our last 2-3 years under Mack the schedule was a joke, which is why a lot of people were done with Mack well before he got let go

Our last 10-15 years our schedule was a joke. That is basically my point. I am looking at this schedule and it does not look materially different than any schedule we have played since John Bunting was coach.