UNC Football Catch-all | Bill Belichick Era underway

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uncjhodges said:
If their evaluations are great, and no one gets hurt, and we get about 5 more starters in the portal over the next ~week (classes start Wednesday) and some freshman surprise with how ready they are to compete, we could go 6-6. Yay
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Can we make the Duke’s Mayo Bowl and possibly fulfill my dream of watching Belichick take the mayo bath?
 
uncjhodges said:
Doubtful if they watched him play.
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I doubt if anyone getting excited or upset about any of our portal pickups have watched them play either. Excitement or lack thereof appears to be based on brands, not on observing the actual talent level of the player.
 
New names popping up including Arkansas olineman who was top 200 recruit, Richmond DL who has one season.left who was first team all conference and Michigan state db who has played in 70 games.
 
Calheel said:
I doubt if anyone getting excited or upset about any of our portal pickups have watched them play either. Excitement or lack thereof appears to be based on brands, not on observing the actual talent level of the player.
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You have no idea how many OVC/Big south partnership conference games i watched last year (it was 0)
 
Calheel said:
Dare to dream!

I think it is highly unlikely that we can make it to 6-6 next year. 3-9 looks like a best case scenario right now.
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This season was quite poor, but saying 3-9 is the "best case" is unbelievably pessimistic. It isn't a stretch to believe that Petrino can deliver a functional offense, which should make a difference at the very least.
 
fuheel said:
This season was quite poor, but saying 3-9 is the "best case" is unbelievably pessimistic. It isn't a stretch to believe that Petrino can deliver a functional offense, which should make a difference at the very least.
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8/29 vs. TCU (Dublin) loss 0-1
9/12 vs. East Tennessee State - win 1-1
10/3 vs. Notre Dame - loss 1-2
11/7 at UConn loss 1-3

Home
Louisville loss 1-4
Miami loss 1-5
NC State loss 1-6
Syracuse win 2-6

Road
Clemson loss 2-7
Duke loss 2-8
Pitt loss 2-9
Virginia loss 2-10

I don't see how we win 3 games, much less 6. And I don't think that is pessimistic. I think a mayo bath and 6 wins is wildly optimistic.
 
fuheel said:
This season was quite poor, but saying 3-9 is the "best case" is unbelievably pessimistic. It isn't a stretch to believe that Petrino can deliver a functional offense, which should make a difference at the very least.
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Still need really good LBs (or OLB if we're mixing scheme) for the D trenches to take a step fwd though.
 
Calheel said:
8/29 vs. TCU (Dublin) loss 0-1
9/12 vs. East Tennessee State - win 1-1
10/3 vs. Notre Dame - loss 1-2
11/7 at UConn loss 1-3

Home
Louisville loss 1-4
Miami loss 1-5
NC State loss 1-6
Syracuse win 2-6

Road
Clemson loss 2-7
Duke loss 2-8
Pitt loss 2-9
Virginia loss 2-10

I don't see how we win 3 games, much less 6. And I don't think that is pessimistic. I think a mayo bath and 6 wins is wildly optimistic.
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How can you judge UVA yet? Their O graduates a ton of seniors, probably the QB.

And this Virginia Football Named One Of the Transfer Portal's Biggest Losers Through The First Few Days
 
gregh1 said:
How can you judge UVA yet? Their O graduates 10 seniors, the only returning starter is a WR.
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How can you judge UNC yet?

I know that the game is at UVa, and the most recent data point on each program is in UVa's favor.

Of course there is always the potential that UNC surprises to the upside and we can celebrate the end of the year in a glorious bath of mayo. But I saw nothing this past year that gave even a hint that this program is ready to elevate.

The one good thing about our schedule is that we play a lot of mid teams. So if we some how manage to elevate from terrible to good, we should be competitive in 10 of the 12 games. Only Miami and Notre Dame are impossible.
 
CFordUNC said:
Hey, in their defense, if they only ever watched him play against them in the Orange Bowl, he looked like a five star!
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Some truth in this. I attended the Orange Bowl and the Aggie folks I spoke with after the game were singing the praise for that Grimes youngster. He put on quite a show for his 15 minutes of fame.
 
I am firmly on board with the BB Train being a total fucking Train Wreck... but that said

Anyone who thinks they can accurately assess the coming season is an all-time dumbfuck and should be henceforth known as such. The portal is still WIDE open, and even then the new CFB world has made pre-season prognostics an absurd exercise (see Penn St and Clemson in top 5 this season).

I will be rooting like hell for the Heels to be the surprise great team of 2026, but do not think it is likely based on where we stand now. That is all I got, suggest any and all of us (sane) people should be similarly measured as well.
 
Ramrouser said:
Some truth in this. I attended the Orange Bowl and the Aggie folks I spoke with after the game were singing the praise for that Grimes youngster. He put on quite a show for his 15 minutes of fame.
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Oh nice, I was there too for that game. It was such a bizarre thing. Biggest bowl game for UNC in like 60 years, but played in front of 13,000 people in a Caverness NFL stadium. I so wish we had made it there in a normal year and not in a global pandemic, because that would’ve been an all-time fun party, especially with Texas A&M fans.

The more I think about it, the more I feel like that particular game was a significant inflection point for me as it pertains to my fandom. It was so unbelievably disheartening to have pretty much all of our best players with a few exceptions- like Howell- opt out of the biggest bowl game we had had in decades.
 
fuheel said:
This season was quite poor, but saying 3-9 is the "best case" is unbelievably pessimistic. It isn't a stretch to believe that Petrino can deliver a functional offense, which should make a difference at the very least.
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Shoot, everyone knows I am exceedingly pessimistic about this staff and the current trajectory of our football program, and even I don’t see us being anywhere close to 3-9 bad next year even if the roster doesn’t gain much more talent than it currently has and even if the schedule is tougher. Put it this way, if we are that bad next year, Bill needs to be fired before he makes it to the post game locker room of our seventh loss. I think the dual additions of competent quarterbacking (not even exceptionally good quarterbacking, just competent) and competent offensive scheming/play calling by themselves should enable us to contend for bowl eligibility. The sobering thing is that we could improve by leaps and bounds next year and still be 6-6/7-5 or so (which I still find to be unacceptable, but that’s a different conversation) but I just don’t see it being bad enough to bottom out at 3-9 or 4-8 again.
 
CFordUNC said:
Shoot, everyone knows I am exceedingly pessimistic about this staff and the current trajectory of our football program, and even I don’t see us being anywhere close to 3-9 bad next year even if the roster doesn’t gain much more talent than it currently has and even if the schedule is tougher. Put it this way, if we are that bad next year, Bill needs to be fired before he makes it to the post game locker room of our seventh loss. I think the dual additions of competent quarterbacking (not even exceptionally good quarterbacking, just competent) and competent offensive scheming/play calling by themselves should enable us to contend for bowl eligibility. The sobering thing is that we could improve by leaps and bounds next year and still be 6-6/7-5 or so (which I still find to be unacceptable, but that’s a different conversation) but I just don’t see it being bad enough to bottom out at 3-9 or 4-8 again.
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You've looked at our schedule right?

You see six wins there?

This seems like a redux of our discussions in August 2024 when you were insisting that 8-4/9-3 would not be jig worthy for a team helmed by Max Johnson. I insisted that it would be an amazing record given what we were working with. And I was correct and you were overly optimistic. I fear you are setting yourself up for disappointment again if you think 3-9 is not reasonably likely next year.
 
Calheel said:
You've looked at our schedule right?

You see six wins there?
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Oh, trust me, I don’t think we’ll be all that good by any means. It’s just that I have got to think we can at least push for six potential wins somewhere among the likes of Josh Hoover-less TCU, ETSU, UConn, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Duke, Virginia, NC State, Louisville, etc. Maybe I’m being too charitable.
 
CFordUNC said:
Oh, trust me, I don’t think we’ll be all that good by any means. It’s just that I have got to think we can at least push for six potential wins somewhere among the likes of Josh Hoover-less TCU, ETSU, UConn, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Duke, Virginia, NC State, Louisville, etc. Maybe I’m being too charitable.
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You unfortunately are
 
CFordUNC said:
Oh, trust me, I don’t think we’ll be all that good by any means. It’s just that I have got to think we can at least push for six potential wins somewhere among the likes of Josh Hoover-less TCU, ETSU, UConn, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Duke, Virginia, NC State, Louisville, etc. Maybe I’m being too charitable.
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Yes. Calheel is uncharacteristically committing a statistical faux pas. Even if we are massive underdogs to most of the teams on the schedule, that does not mean we will win none of the games. He is counting probabilities as if they are certainties.
 
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