UNC Football Catch-all | Bill Belichick Era underway

[Calheel]

Yes. Calheel is uncharacteristically committing a statistical faux pas. Even if we are massive underdogs to most of the teams on the schedule, that does not mean we will win none of the games. He is counting probabilities as if they are certainties.

Nope, if I were doing that, I'd have us at 1-11 or 2-10. I credited us with an upset to get 3-9.

The only sure win on the schedule is ETSU.

 

[Peppers49]

Oh nice, I was there too for that game. It was such a bizarre thing. Biggest bowl game for UNC in like 60 years, but played in front of 13,000 people in a Caverness NFL stadium. I so wish we had made it there in a normal year and not in a global pandemic, because that would’ve been an all-time fun party, especially with Texas A&M fans.

The more I think about it, the more I feel like that particular game was a significant inflection point for me as it pertains to my fandom. It was so unbelievably disheartening to have pretty much all of our best players with a few exceptions- like Howell- opt out of the biggest bowl game we had had in decades.

Same man, same. Me and a few buddies were so excited to finally be in a major bowl so we all made plans to take a mini vacation to Miami, then of course all of our best players opted out. So on brand for that to happen to UNC lol.

Anyways, we still had a blast in Miami for a few days and even the game was fun, although that was definitely the weirdest stadium environment I’ve ever been in because of how empty it was. I remember it being pretty quiet for most of the game, but once A&M came back and took control in the 4th quarter it got very loud. Their fans don’t mess around.

I foolishly had hope that things were finally on the upswing for UNC football after that season. Hard to believe how quickly it all came unraveled and how different I feel about the program 5 years later.

 

[superrific]

Nope, if I were doing that, I'd have us at 1-11 or 2-10. I credited us with an upset to get 3-9.

The only sure win on the schedule is ETSU.

One sure fire win makes 2-10 almost impossible. 3-9 remains unlikely.

If we are uniformly 20% chance to win each of the 11 non-ETSU games, we'd be about even odds to get to 4 wins. Let's say ND is a guaranteed loss. IF we are at least 40% in two games; 33% in another 4 and 10-15% for the remainder, we'd still be more likely to win 4 than less. Obviously I'm just making up numbers here, but I'm illustrating that even if we are decided underdogs in each game, we still probably win 4.

 

[heel79]

Since I have been crowned the BB Apologist, I figured clarifying my position might have some value, so here goes. First, I am an optimistic person, and it helps in life. I recommend it. I have been watching UNC football for 60 years, eight season tickets, did not miss a game this year, know a bunch of former players, blah, blah, blah ... . So I am infected with all of that. I guess the reason I am not as down as most of you guys, is because my expectations of BB are really not that astray from the beginning. Now I know when I articulate this, some will want to counter point by point. But I am simply sharing where I am coming from, not trying to change minds. I did not get this hire at all, although in hindsight, if we hire Campbell and he goes 6-6, and we learn BB wanted the job, probably going to be hell to pay. But moving on. It was the age thing, and I was unaware of Jordan, and yes, if she went away I am happy for UNC football, but sad for Bill. To the point: While I certainly expected better than 4-8, I did not expect magic. My belief then, and now, is that BB wants to build a program by stockpiling talent and selling the notion we will get you in the NFL. Kids that sign up talk about that. See how many games he could win in 3 to 5 years, perhaps something special, and then retire at the Governor's Club and play golf, and be the godfather of UNC football, perhaps with Steve coaching. Sounded good to me, and it is really not off track. Everyone wants to talk about wins next year, and I get it, and I will be accused of moving the goal posts. But what I want to see, yes, better on the field, more stockpiling of talent through HS recruiting, more discipline on field, less Jordan, stability, etc. And the fact that BB is still here, and it seems to me, working hard, makes me believe maybe he does want to do that.

Sorry to interrupt the regular program of "BB and Lombo suck, and we will be 0-12 next year" but I guess I just did. That's a big bone for those who want to chew.

 

[Zoo_View]

That is good. Honestly, I hope it means they intend to play them. If we are paying them (and we are), then we need them in game reps. We are going to be not good next year anyway so those kids need to learn as expeditiously as possible.

Exactly, play these classes of incoming FR and the RS-FR and the rising SO’s.

Take the lumps on the field. We’re already looking at 4-8 as a best case scenario record. Get the young guys experience.

Here’s to 2028!

 

[Calheel]

One sure fire win makes 2-10 almost impossible. 3-9 remains unlikely.

If we are uniformly 20% chance to win each of the 11 non-ETSU games, we'd be about even odds to get to 4 wins. Let's say ND is a guaranteed loss. IF we are at least 40% in two games; 33% in another 4 and 10-15% for the remainder, we'd still be more likely to win 4 than less. Obviously I'm just making up numbers here, but I'm illustrating that even if we are decided underdogs in each game, we still probably win 4.

Any way you slice it, a mayo bath for Bill remains highly unlikely - even with an upgraded roster and coaching.

 

[gregh1]

Nope, if I were doing that, I'd have us at 1-11 or 2-10. I credited us with an upset to get 3-9.

The only sure win on the schedule is ETSU.

You admitted you know nothing about our team or UVA's roster, yet assigned an L due to some recency bias which shouldn't be much of a thing anymore in this nil era for ACC teams.

 

[SnoopRob]

Fuck.

He's gonna go to VT and then light us up, isn't he?

 

[Zoo_View]

Maybe so...but the term "discount" is relative when they have demonstrated no value up to that point. That's kind of what I'm saying. BB seems to be using the portal more like a draft and hoping that people work out vs. using it like free agency and getting known quantities. Sometimes you get a Tom Brady. Often, you don't.

I’ve said it before. The Patriots front office and coaching staff didn’t think much of Tom Brady when he was coming out of college. They took him in the 6th round.

 

[superrific]

I’ve said it before. The Patriots front office and coaching staff didn’t think much of Tom Brady when he was coming out of college. They took him in the 6th round.

Is this a dig at the Patriots front office? Because what you're actually saying is that nobody in the NFL thought much of him.

 

[superrific]

Any way you slice it, a mayo bath for Bill remains highly unlikely - even with an upgraded roster and coaching.

That might be true. I wouldn't know.

 

[heel79]

I’ve said it before. The Patriots front office and coaching staff didn’t think much of Tom Brady when he was coming out of college. They took him in the 6th round.

They thought more of him than everyone else. If the question is does BB recognize talent and can he coach there is really no shortage of testimonials.

 

[Zoo_View]

The Falcons may be interested in Belichick/Hudson...

Please let it be so.

 

[Callatoroy]

Since I have been crowned the BB Apologist, I figured clarifying my position might have some value, so here goes. First, I am an optimistic person, and it helps in life. I recommend it. I have been watching UNC football for 60 years, eight season tickets, did not miss a game this year, know a bunch of former players, blah, blah, blah ... . So I am infected with all of that. I guess the reason I am not as down as most of you guys, is because my expectations of BB are really not that astray from the beginning. Now I know when I articulate this, some will want to counter point by point. But I am simply sharing where I am coming from, not trying to change minds. I did not get this hire at all, although in hindsight, if we hire Campbell and he goes 6-6, and we learn BB wanted the job, probably going to be hell to pay. But moving on. It was the age thing, and I was unaware of Jordan, and yes, if she went away I am happy for UNC football, but sad for Bill. To the point: While I certainly expected better than 4-8, I did not expect magic. My belief then, and now, is that BB wants to build a program by stockpiling talent and selling the notion we will get you in the NFL. Kids that sign up talk about that. See how many games he could win in 3 to 5 years, perhaps something special, and then retire at the Governor's Club and play golf, and be the godfather of UNC football, perhaps with Steve coaching. Sounded good to me, and it is really not off track. Everyone wants to talk about wins next year, and I get it, and I will be accused of moving the goal posts. But what I want to see, yes, better on the field, more stockpiling of talent through HS recruiting, more discipline on field, less Jordan, stability, etc. And the fact that BB is still here, and it seems to me, working hard, makes me believe maybe he does want to do that.

Sorry to interrupt the regular program of "BB and Lombo suck, and we will be 0-12 next year" but I guess I just did. That's a big bone for those who want to chew.

Did you see on the field what you expected to see after the hiring of BB? If yes, great. If not, what failed to meet your expectations?

 

[farce©]

Please let it be so.

Arthur Blank didn’t hire him last time because he was too old. He didn’t get younger in two years.

 

[Calheel]

He's gonna go to VT and then light us up, isn't he?

I may not get @Peppers49 support on this, but I highly doubt we ever play against Baker at Va Tech (absent very significant QB injuries). My guess is that he transfers again within 2 years (and that really isn't a knock against Baker; most QBs who transfer once into a backup role will transfer again).

 

[Zoo_View]

They thought more of him than everyone else. If the question is does BB recognize talent and can he coach there is really no shortage of testimonials.

The 73 or 74 year-old Bill Belichick?

Or the <60 Belichick?

 

[Ramrouser]

Oh nice, I was there too for that game. It was such a bizarre thing. Biggest bowl game for UNC in like 60 years, but played in front of 13,000 people in a Caverness NFL stadium. I so wish we had made it there in a normal year and not in a global pandemic, because that would’ve been an all-time fun party, especially with Texas A&M fans.

The more I think about it, the more I feel like that particular game was a significant inflection point for me as it pertains to my fandom. It was so unbelievably disheartening to have pretty much all of our best players with a few exceptions- like Howell- opt out of the biggest bowl game we had had in decades.

It was bizarre but I opted to attend because I don’t take it for granted that UNC will make it back for a major bowl game/Playoff game in my lifetime.

 

[Zoo_View]

Maybe Gio got a decent offer from someone. Presumably he was aware we’d be bringing in a new transfer QB, but who knows.

Maybe he’s hoping to land somewhere with a decent OLine and WR’s?

 

[gregh1]

They thought more of him than everyone else. If the question is does BB recognize talent and can he coach there is really no shortage of testimonials.

Recognizing talent when reviewing a static list of guys leaving college, knowing all your competitors have the same cap, and all your players are bound by contract is a different art or science than the tampering, retaining, guesswork juggling-act required now with no contracts and relatively mediocre sized wallets.