UNC Men’s Basketball 25-26 | Seth HEALED arm!

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Kentucky’s neutral court, double digit win vs. #22 team has to help UNC even if just a little bit.
 
duluoz said:
He looks like that Davion Mitchell or Jamal Shead type, except he can shoot lights out. Looks like a surefire first rounder.
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But look at his age. He might be a first-rounder, but being a senior puts a player at a disadvantage.
 
superrific said:
But look at his age. He might be a first-rounder, but being a senior puts a player at a disadvantage.
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Basically the same relative age and college career arc as Mitchell and Shead at the time. 4-year guys.

Not in the same mold but Will Richard is a 4-year guy who won a title at Florida and is now having big games as a rookie for GSW, including last night.

Especially now with NIL, guys who are in college longer won’t carry the same stigma or stain on their resumes that they used to. GM’s are valuing experience and steady hands more and more, and looking to plug guys into lineups sooner. Lots more G-league and two-way guys finding their way into rotations that way.
 
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duluoz said:
Basically the same relative age and college career arc as Mitchell and Shead at the time. 4-year guys.

Not in the same mold but Will Richard is a 4-year guy who won a title at Florida and is now having big games as a rookie for GSW, including last night.

Especially now with NIL, guys who are in college longer won’t carry the same stigma or stain on their resumes that they used to.
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Seth guarded him well but I thought Thornton was pretty unimpressive. He bulled in for some drives and short jumpers but he’s not particularly fast and he’s short (listed at 6’2” - puh-leeze). Didn’t look like an NBA player in this game, more like an RJ Davis, just-short-of-the-mark type player.
 
Missed free throws and giving up too many offensive rebounds have been the team's biggest problem so far. They also have a tendency to have a scoring drought when they get up by double digits for some reason. But I think overall the defense and offense have been good, even though I'm not a big fan of the type of offense Hubert runs.
 
duluoz said:
Basically the same relative age and college career arc as Mitchell and Shead at the time. 4-year guys.

Not in the same mold but Will Richard is a 4-year guy who won a title at Florida and is now having big games as a rookie for GSW, including last night.

Especially now with NIL, guys who are in college longer won’t carry the same stigma or stain on their resumes that they used to. GM’s are valuing experience and steady hands more and more, and looking to plug guys into lineups sooner. Lots more G-league and two-way guys finding their way into rotations that way.
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the problem that teams have with drafting older players (at least high, like in the lottery) isn't some kind of "stigma," it's a worry that a 22-year old is going to be physically more mature than most of the college opposition he faces and thus his numbers might be juiced in a way that won't be sustainable when he's up against other grown men. Plus the development curve of an older player is not going to be as sharp as that of a younger one.

It's a nice theory, but I think the evidence shows that an upperclassman is just as likely to bust as an OAD. For every Jaime Jacquez, there's a Dalton Knecht.
 
akillesheel said:
the problem that teams have with drafting older players (at least high, like in the lottery) isn't some kind of "stigma," it's a worry that a 22-year old is going to be physically more mature than most of the college opposition he faces and thus his numbers might be juiced in a way that won't be sustainable when he's up against other grown men. Plus the development curve of an older player is not going to be as sharp as that of a younger one.

It's a nice theory, but I think the evidence shows that an upperclassman is just as likely to bust as an OAD. For every Jaime Jacquez, there's a Dalton Knecht.
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Well I can speak more for the Warriors since I watch every game and am entrenched in their news cycle. The local talking heads (and evidently Kerr and staff, based on minutes) are far higher on guys like Pat Spencer, Will Richard, Gary Payton Jr… who despite their ages and much longer routes to the league, have been much better plug and play options. Lottery pick Jonathan Kuminga, on the other hand, has been a constant f’ing headache despite his high ceiling, relative youth, and occasional scoring outbursts. He’s a ball stopper and only sometimes plays D — not a mature player and it has mattered immensely. And don’t get me started on James Wiseman.

If a GM is in win-now mode, which most are these days, they usually don’t have the luxury of being saddled with youthful projects and their development curve, waiting for guys to pack on muscle, mature, and adjust. No, they’re looking for plug and play guys ready to contribute right now. Thornton looks like one of those guys to me. Regardless of where or if he’s drafted, I’d bet he’ll be in somebody’s rotation next year.
 
duluoz said:
Basically the same relative age and college career arc as Mitchell and Shead at the time. 4-year guys.

Not in the same mold but Will Richard is a 4-year guy who won a title at Florida and is now having big games as a rookie for GSW, including last night.

Especially now with NIL, guys who are in college longer won’t carry the same stigma or stain on their resumes that they used to. GM’s are valuing experience and steady hands more and more, and looking to plug guys into lineups sooner. Lots more G-league and two-way guys finding their way into rotations that way.
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Donovan Mitchell was two and done. If you mean Davion Mitchell, I do not think he would be taken #9 in a redraft. He played a fair amount as a rookie, but he got 10-15 mpg his next two years. Then they shipped him to Toronto, where he got enough PT for Toronto to decide they didn't like him much. So he's on his third team.

Would Davion be a first rounder? Maybe. He appears to have found his groove finally with Miami, but obviously teams are not in the business of drafting players who become good on their third team.

If this Thornton guy can actually shoot close to 50% from 3, yes he will taken first round. Like Cam Johnson, who went much higher than expected; he was also an older prospect who didn't get all that much better in the pros, but does shoot 40%+ from 3 which is quite valuable and I'm sure Phoenix does not regret picking him in the lottery.

Thornton shot 37% and 33% his first two years. Then 42%. If he can match 42% this year, he'll have a decent chance at the first round. Right now he's at 46%. We'll have to see what happens. I would guess slight regression to the mean from the 42%, but of course some guys genuinely improve. His FT shooting is solid.
 
Of course I mean Davion Mitchell, since I typed Davion Mitchell. Nobody mentioned Donovan.

My points stand, and I certainly didn’t expect them to be this controversial — Thornton looks like a first rounder to me… but either way, other 4-year guys like him are finding their way into NBA rotations whether through the draft or else the long way around. GMs are increasingly valuing mature players they don’t have to nurture and can just insert them into the lineup with confidence.

Combine that with NIL incentives, and the stigma toward guys who stay longer is receding. I watch a lot of League Pass and these guys are everywhere, even though the flashy one-and-dones will always get the headlines and compose the lottery picks, whether or not they’re ready to contribute.

Having seasoned college/G-League players excelling in the NBA is ultimately good for both the NCAA as well as the NBA.
 
duluoz said:
Of course I mean Davion Mitchell, since I typed Davion Mitchell. Nobody mentioned Donovan.

My points stand, and I certainly didn’t expect them to be this controversial — Thornton looks like a first rounder to me… but either way, other 4-year guys like him are finding their way into NBA rotations whether through the draft or else the long way around. GMs are increasingly valuing mature players they don’t have to nurture and can just insert them into the lineup with confidence.

Combine that with NIL incentives, and the stigma toward guys who stay longer is receding. I watch a lot of League Pass and these guys are everywhere, even though the flashy one-and-dones will always get the headlines and compose the lottery picks, whether or not they’re ready to contribute.

Having seasoned college/G-League players excelling in the NBA is ultimately good for both the NCAA as well as the NBA.
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I didn't see your original post. Geez. I think there are plenty of these guys getting into the league, but they aren't being drafted first round and I don't expect them to be. The ones who succeed aren't observably different from the ones who don't -- it's a crapshoot. That's second round and undrafted area.
 
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