UNC’s Next Basketball Coach

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CarolinaFever said:
I think they would have to split with Duke at least and win the rest of their games and then get into the semi final of the ACC tournament to be a 4 or higher. Everyone else on the schedule besides Duke is ranked lower than them, so if they lose to anyone else it's going to drop them to a 5 or 6 seed.
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Their metrics currently has them around a 7 seed.
 
Rock said:
For the record, I am able to be dispassionate about this conversation and honestly look at it from a pretty removed viewpoint. Which is why I am saying I don’t see a lot of programs firing their coach if the season ends with a top 15 ranking and a four seed or better.

If Carolina beats Duke once and wins some of these hard games, I think that’s good enough for a four seed or better?

But, I am aware that they could get swept by Duke and lose most of the upcoming games and that perhaps does it.

We’ll find out a bit on Saturday.
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That's a fair answer.

I'd agree that if we consistently play closer to our potential then we can certainly be a 4-seed or better given where we are now.

I don't put a lot of stock in our poll rankings when we know those are not nearly as good of a metric as the advanced metrics rankings, but that's a different discussion.
 
CarolinaFever said:
I think they would have to split with Duke at least and win the rest of their games and then get into the semi final of the ACC tournament to be a 4 or higher. Everyone else on the schedule besides Duke is ranked lower than them, so if they lose to anyone else it's going to drop them to a 5 or 6 seed.
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So you think a no. 14 team has to win 9 of 10 including a win at state and against duke to be a top 16 seed?. I think you misspoke.
 
heel79 said:
So you think a no. 14 team has to win 9 of 10 including a win at state and against duke to be a top 16 seed?. I think you misspoke.
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They are ranked 14 now. Duke is the only team ranked higher than them. If the lose a couple of games to anyone but Duke they won't be a 4 seed.
 
CarolinaFever said:
They are ranked 14 now. Duke is the only team ranked higher than them. If the lose a couple of games to anyone but Duke they won't be a 4 seed.
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It won't happen so we won't know. But by your scenario we have wins at state, Miami, home against Clemson, lville and dook and all W's in other games and we drop? You do realize other teams like us will be playing and some losing as well. This is idiot take.
 
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CarolinaFever said:
I think they would have to split with Duke at least and win the rest of their games and then get into the semi final of the ACC tournament to be a 4 or higher. Everyone else on the schedule besides Duke is ranked lower than them, so if they lose to anyone else it's going to drop them to a 5 or 6 seed.
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That's probably not going to happen. I think 6-3 would is a reasonable outcome over the next 9. Anything better gives them a shot at 4 seed depending on what other teams do.

The difference between being a 4,5, or 6 seed isn't that significant. Winning 2 games in the NCAAT is more important.
 
heel79 said:
It won't happen so we won't know. But by your scenario we have wins at state, Miami, home against Clemson, lville and dook and all W's in other games and we drop? You do realize other teams like us will be playing and sine losing as well. This is idiot take.
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He's looking at strictly by ranking without factoring in other variables like that road wins against ranked teams are pluses if they are ranked behind you.
 
heel79 said:
It won't happen so we won't know. But by your scenario we have wins at state, Miami, home against Clemson, lville and dook and all W's in other games and we drop? You do realize other teams like us will be playing and some losing as well. This is idiot take.
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CF's take is far from idiotic, if you understand that the NCAA Committee depends far more on advanced metrics than on the voter rankings.

BartTorvik has a functionality where you can determine the outcome of all remaining games and see how, using his model, the team would be ranked by his formula and what seed that would mean in the NCAAT.

As a caveat, you can't predict MOV for the upcoming games, only W/L.

If we go 8-1 from here on out and only lose @dook, he has us 18th and a 5 seed going into the ACCT.

If you think we're likely to end up an overall top 16 seed, then you are assuming we will finish the season really, really strongly.
 
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The committee isn't in lock step with the metrics. If the Heels go 10-2 the rest of the way with a win over dook I'd bet they get a 4 seed.
 
What do metrics say about we have win over Kansas that has win over Texas tech that has win over dook?. We go 10-2 we are a lock for a top 4 seed.
 
Rock said:
Completely agree. I meant that if they play as they are, meaning beat Virginia but yes lost two in California, that likely means they win some and lose some. I know my post sounds vague but I’m more saying, I don’t see many programs firing their coach if they’re a 4 seed or better and have some post season success with whatever résumé gets you a four seed or better.
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If we can get a 4 seed, I think Hubert is probably safe with a split and round of 32, but I wouldn't feel great going into next year -- it would be another year with the Sword of Damocles over his head. It would help everyone if he could put a run together here and win out, or at least win at all but Duke. If he could pull that off, it would get us back to that good post-Kansas buzz.
 
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