If Canada could get 2 senators for every province (I know, I know) how many democratic senators would that add and how many republican senators? I assume Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba would skew Republican and the other 7 provinces would skew democratic, but I don't know Canadian politics to know for sure.
US Foreign Policy Trump47 | Threatens all hell to break loose in Gaza; won't rule out military force in Panama, Greenland, threatens economic force
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The Biggest Foreign-Policy Challenges Facing Trump in 2025
The U.S. president-elect’s second term will begin in a vastly different global landscape than his first.
foreignpolicy.com
The Biggest Foreign-Policy Challenges Facing Trump in 2025
The U.S. president-elect’s second term will begin in a vastly different global landscape than his first."... Among Trump’s first foreign-policy priorities will be addressing Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine, which will hit its three-year mark just over a month into Trump’s new term. The president-elect has vowed to end the conflict before his inauguration on Jan. 20, 2025. But the introduction of North Korean forces on Russia’s front lines and Ukraine receiving permission from the Biden administration to use Western-supplied long-range missile systems to strike deep inside Russian territory could make that campaign pledge difficult to achieve.
Trump has threatened to increase U.S. military aid to Kyiv or halt such assistance entirely if Putin or Zelensky, respectively, refuse to come to the negotiating table. However, he appears to be placing the onus of peace talks on Europe, not the United States—a marked shift from the outgoing Biden administration’s approach to Russia-Ukraine diplomacy. ..."
Middle East
China
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Black Swan
"...Analysts use the term “black swan” to describe events that are hard to see coming and have an outsized impact. By definition, they are rare. But with the COVID-19 pandemic, the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Israel-Hamas war, and the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, historic events have become a seemingly regular occurrence in the last few years.
The sudden rebel offensive that ended five decades of Assad family rule has been described as the Middle East’s 1989 moment. It will set off a chain of events and accelerate shifting power dynamics in the Middle East, the results of which are impossible to predict at this point. Add to the mix a reeling Iran, a defiant Russia, a Europe in chaos, and escalating competition with China, and you have all the ingredients for a rocky road ahead. ..."
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I agree with Lavrov, but the root cause of the conflict is Putin’s expansionist impulses, and I doubt Lavrov will agree to eliminate Putin.
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“… Trump's decision in 2018 to withdraw from an Obama-era nuclear dealprompted Tehran to accelerate its nuclear program, such that it's now a de facto "nuclear threshold state." Officials and diplomats from the U.S., EU and Israel all told Axios they expect Trump to face an Iran crisis in 2025.
State of play: Trump and his advisers are planning to quickly return to the "maximum pressure" campaign they conducted against Iran between 2018 and 2020.
Behind the scenes: Several Trump advisers privately concede Iran's program is now so far along that the strategy might not be effective. That makes a military option a real possibility. …”
ChileG
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TDS won’t allow MAGA to admit Trump majorly fucked up.
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lawtig02
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I think one of the most shocking things over the next four years, even to most of MAGA, will be how quickly the geopolitical world deteriorates under Trump's (lack of) stewardship. Quite a few regions have become much more complicated over the last four years. Trumpers like to attribute that to Biden. I have a very strong feeling Biden will be remembered for keeping the trains relatively on the tracks in the face of enormous challenges. We're about to see what happens when you turn the trains over to a bunch of toddlers. It's going to be ugly.
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I've read repeatedly that Putin has been discussing with Trump a meeting to carve out spheres of influence in the world for Russia and the United States, and this sounds an awful lot like the kinds of actions that might come up in such discussions.
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Trump Ratchets Up Campaign to Gain Control of Greenland, Panama Canal
President-elect threatens to hit Denmark with high tariffs if officials there don’t cooperate with his bid for Greenland
"...During Tuesday’s news conference, Trump threatened to hit Denmark with tariffs “at a very high level” if Danish officials don’t cooperate with his bid to take over Greenland. He also questioned whether Denmark has any legal right to control the territory.
“People really don’t even know if Denmark has any legal right to it, but if they do, they should give it up, because we need it for national security,” Trump said.
Trump and transition officials have offered no details on the president’s apparent plans for territorial expansion, and officials in Denmark, Greenland, Canada and Panama have so far rejected his entreaties.
The president-elect said he would consider using economic coercion to convince Canada to become part of the U.S., but he ruled out using military force. ..."
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Cont'd
"...Trump’s national security team has had preliminary discussions about a process by which Trump would direct the State Department to undertake negotiations with the governments of Denmark and Greenland, according to people close to the transition. That could potentially happen through a Compacts of Free Association agreement—a financial assistance pact similar to what the U.S. currently has with several Pacific Island nations.
Trump’s advisers hope to launch potential negotiations once the president-elect takes office, the people said. The governments of Denmark and Greenland continue to publicly dismiss any discussion of a potential “sale” of Greenland. ..."
"...Trump’s national security team has had preliminary discussions about a process by which Trump would direct the State Department to undertake negotiations with the governments of Denmark and Greenland, according to people close to the transition. That could potentially happen through a Compacts of Free Association agreement—a financial assistance pact similar to what the U.S. currently has with several Pacific Island nations.
Trump’s advisers hope to launch potential negotiations once the president-elect takes office, the people said. The governments of Denmark and Greenland continue to publicly dismiss any discussion of a potential “sale” of Greenland. ..."
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Donald Trump to a question about providing security guarantees for Ukraine: "Russia for many years said you could never have NATO involved with Ukraine. That's been like written in stone. And Biden said no, they should be able to join NATO. Then Russia has somebody right on their doorstep. I could understand their feelings about that."
superrific
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A few observations:
1. If the US tried to use military force against Greenland, all NATO countries -- including the United States! -- would be obliged to come to Denmark's defense. This would be an opening for Trump to be deposed as president, because treaties have a higher legal status than executive decisions. Quite literally, Trump would be giving an illegal, self-defeating order and I would expect no military person would obey it.
2. Does Trump really want to get in a war with all of NATO? Hopefully someone is telling him how badly that will go for him. Remember how American military forces in Vietnam were crippled by the low morale of people fighting Vietnamese people for reasons they didn't understand? Imagine putting your life on the line because Trump wants Greenland. I have a feeling that American forces would be unenthusiastic participants.
3. I am 90% sure that Trump cannot tariff Denmark because the country of origin for Denmark is the European Union. I do not think American law authorizes sub-tariffs (e.g. tariffing part of Mexico, or part of the EU).
4. I am 99% sure that in practice Trump cannot effectively tariff Denmark because free movement of goods means that Denmark could just route their exports through another EU company.
5. Trump has no idea that Denmark holds all the leverage here. There is one four letter word that makes Denmark immune to Trump's pressure: LEGO. It might be hard to cleave MAGAs from their cult, but taking away their ability to occupy their children with lego toys, minifigures, TV shows, movies would do the trick.
1. If the US tried to use military force against Greenland, all NATO countries -- including the United States! -- would be obliged to come to Denmark's defense. This would be an opening for Trump to be deposed as president, because treaties have a higher legal status than executive decisions. Quite literally, Trump would be giving an illegal, self-defeating order and I would expect no military person would obey it.
2. Does Trump really want to get in a war with all of NATO? Hopefully someone is telling him how badly that will go for him. Remember how American military forces in Vietnam were crippled by the low morale of people fighting Vietnamese people for reasons they didn't understand? Imagine putting your life on the line because Trump wants Greenland. I have a feeling that American forces would be unenthusiastic participants.
3. I am 90% sure that Trump cannot tariff Denmark because the country of origin for Denmark is the European Union. I do not think American law authorizes sub-tariffs (e.g. tariffing part of Mexico, or part of the EU).
4. I am 99% sure that in practice Trump cannot effectively tariff Denmark because free movement of goods means that Denmark could just route their exports through another EU company.
5. Trump has no idea that Denmark holds all the leverage here. There is one four letter word that makes Denmark immune to Trump's pressure: LEGO. It might be hard to cleave MAGAs from their cult, but taking away their ability to occupy their children with lego toys, minifigures, TV shows, movies would do the trick.
superrific
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My conversation with ChatGPT:
Me: can the united states tariff a single EU country, or do tariffs have to be imposed for the entire customs union?
GPT: The United States cannot generally impose tariffs on a single EU country because the European Union functions as a customs union. Within a customs union, all member states adopt a unified external trade policy, meaning tariffs imposed on goods entering the EU apply uniformly across all member states. If the U.S. imposes tariffs on products from the EU, those tariffs apply to the entire customs union and not individual member states.
Me: All right. Forget the WTO for a minute. Our president-elect is threatening to tariff Denmark unless it hands over Greenland to America. Yes, that is actually happening. Next time you get trained, you're going to learn a lot of really crazy shit. But anyway, do you know if US law would permit him to levy tariffs on Denmark without Congressional action?
GPT: Well, that's a plot twist right out of an alternate history novel! Here's the deal: under U.S. law, the president does have significant power to impose tariffs unilaterally in certain situations, but the authority to target a specific country like Denmark (outside of the EU context) is complex and legally constrained. The president could try, but targeting Denmark alone without applying the tariffs to the broader EU would be legally dubious and likely face lawsuits, pushback from Congress, and international complications. Denmark might give him a very polite nej tak, and we’d all just have to brace for the sequel to this geopolitical circus.
LOL. Even ChatGPT gets it.
BTW, ChatGPT also tried to bring the uniformity clause of Article I into the analysis, which is simply wrong (as it admitted in a follow up). So, for those of you looking to ChatGPT for sophisticated analysis, don't. It's pretty good in math and science, from my experience, but as to law it's not even at Ramrouser level.
Me: can the united states tariff a single EU country, or do tariffs have to be imposed for the entire customs union?
GPT: The United States cannot generally impose tariffs on a single EU country because the European Union functions as a customs union. Within a customs union, all member states adopt a unified external trade policy, meaning tariffs imposed on goods entering the EU apply uniformly across all member states. If the U.S. imposes tariffs on products from the EU, those tariffs apply to the entire customs union and not individual member states.
Me: All right. Forget the WTO for a minute. Our president-elect is threatening to tariff Denmark unless it hands over Greenland to America. Yes, that is actually happening. Next time you get trained, you're going to learn a lot of really crazy shit. But anyway, do you know if US law would permit him to levy tariffs on Denmark without Congressional action?
GPT: Well, that's a plot twist right out of an alternate history novel! Here's the deal: under U.S. law, the president does have significant power to impose tariffs unilaterally in certain situations, but the authority to target a specific country like Denmark (outside of the EU context) is complex and legally constrained. The president could try, but targeting Denmark alone without applying the tariffs to the broader EU would be legally dubious and likely face lawsuits, pushback from Congress, and international complications. Denmark might give him a very polite nej tak, and we’d all just have to brace for the sequel to this geopolitical circus.
LOL. Even ChatGPT gets it.
BTW, ChatGPT also tried to bring the uniformity clause of Article I into the analysis, which is simply wrong (as it admitted in a follow up). So, for those of you looking to ChatGPT for sophisticated analysis, don't. It's pretty good in math and science, from my experience, but as to law it's not even at Ramrouser level.
lawtig02
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