US Foreign Policy Trump47 | Will US or China figure out AI first?

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ChileG said:
Yeah, I bought a new home last February. My decision, and it is still the correct decision.
But if anyone other than Trump were elected president, I would have been able to refinance and save about $600 per month.
Thanks, Trump.
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Just hang on a little while. All those tariffs will tank the economy so interest rates will be heading down soon.
 
Callatoroy said:
Yep, excitement in the economy of trump taking office. Fed doesn't know whether to shit or go blind.
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Do you really not understand that the rise in bond yields is the market's prediction of rampant inflation? Trump has not actually gotten any deal in Gaza done (it's not even done, and of course Trump had nothing to do with it), but he has already caused interest rates to increase by over 25 bps.

In case you're counting, 25 bps on $30T of debt is 75B a year. That is what Trump has ALREADY added to the deficit. He hasn't taken office, and he has already cost the US more than all of his DOGE efficiencies put together.

Winning! God you people are so fucking blind.
 
ChileG said:
What does the Fed have to do with mortgage rates rising? And why would “excitement in the economy” lead to higher interest rates?
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Cuts in the fed rate almost always lead to cuts in other rates. The 10 yr T rates will fall and then mortgage rates will fall. Of course you know that so
 
Callatoroy said:
Just hang on a little while. All those tariffs will tank the economy so interest rates will be heading down soon.
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The problem is that the tariffs will tank the economy AND lead to higher interest rates. Because the inflation that's coming is not cyclical. It's not a recession. It can't be addressed with lower interest rates. That's because tariffs are an intentional effort by the president to increase prices. And decrease the competitiveness of our exports. Intentionally.
 
ChileG said:
You don’t seem to understand how any of this works. No big deal. A lot of people don’t. Like Trump, for example.
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Yea, I do. I have 3 homes, 2 of which at one point had mortgages, as well as commercial property that had a mortgage. I have refinanced numerous times on those mortgages. While mortgage rates aren't tied to fed rates, fed rates falling has a domino effect on other rates. Play semantics with someone else.
 
Callatoroy said:
Yea, I do. I have 3 homes, 2 of which at one point had mortgages, as well as commercial property that had a mortgage. I have refinanced numerous times on those mortgages. While mortgage rates aren't tied to fed rates, fed rates falling has a domino effect on other rates. Play semantics with someone else.
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Yet the fed has cut rates but bond yields are increasing. Why do you suppose that is?
 
farce© said:
Yet the fed has cut rates but bond yields are increasing. Why do you suppose that is?
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because there is uncertainty in the market. the economy is chugging along and inflation is sill a concern. Kind of hard for the fed to keep cutting isn't it? But according to you guys, all these tariffs will kill the economy so not to worry. Won't take long for the tariffs to take their toll and mortgage rates will be back under 5%.
 
Callatoroy said:
because there is uncertainty in the market. the economy is chugging along and inflation is sill a concern. Kind of hard for the fed to keep cutting isn't it? But according to you guys, all these tariffs will kill the economy so not to worry. Won't take long for the tariffs to take their toll and mortgage rates will be back under 5%.
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This is not correct. None of it.

Edit: I will make one correction to my statement above.

Inflation is now a concern. It was no longer a concern up until November 5th, 2024, but then it became a concern to the markets again. This is not my opinion. This can easily be Googled if one were inclined to learn.
 
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Callatoroy said:
Just hang on a little while. All those tariffs will tank the economy so interest rates will be heading down soon.
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You're claiming that inflation will force interest rates down? Did Arthur Laffer mark up a different, secret napkin that we don't know about?
 


“…
President Harry Trumantold the assembled delegates that “the responsibility of the great states is to serve, and not to dominate, the peoples of the world.”

Today, these lofty principles look quaint, if not outright irrelevant, as the world returns to what was presumed to be the natural law of statecraft since the dawn of history: The strong do as they please and the weak suffer as they must. Russia, one of five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, is three years into a war of conquest in Ukraine, annexing parts of the country and seeking to eliminate the independence of the remainder.

Russian leaders openly talk about their designs on other neighboring states, including members of the European Union and NATO.

China, another permanent member of the Security Council, supports the Russian war machine and is preparing for a war to take over Taiwan, while bullying the Philippines and other countries with its claims on the South China Sea.

And in the U.S., President-elect Donald Trump has begun to indulge in imperialist rhetoric of his own, repeatedly threatening to absorb Canada, Greenland and the Panama Canal zone.

… Today the concept of a rules-based international order looks more and more utopian—and the survival of the United Nations increasingly uncertain. “It’s a real question to ask, 80 years after the end of World War II, whether that structure can be saved, what it would take, and whether it would be replaced,” Norway’s Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide said in an interview. …”
 
Continued

“… Many strategists and diplomats see the world returning to something like the Concert of Nations that emerged in Europe after the Napoleonic wars of the early 19th century. Under that system, praised by the late Henry Kissinger for preventing global war for nearly a century, empires recognized each other’s spheres of influence worldwide, including the right to oppress and dominate less powerful countries and peoples within those spheres.

The Monroe Doctrine of 1823 was the American version of this idea, proclaiming U.S. hegemony over the Americas and a refusal to get involved in European wars. This month Mike Waltz, Trump’s incoming national-security adviser, described the president-elect’s vision as “Monroe 2.0.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s frequent pronouncements about a multipolar world reflect a similar nostalgia for 19th-century imperial power. The idea of multipolarity appeals to many people in the developing world eager to shake off American domination, but in practice it would take even more power away from the weaker nations, said German diplomat Volker Perthes, a former U.N. Undersecretary-General.

… There is widespread agreement around the world that the U.N. system is increasingly out-of-date. The U.K. and France, both Allied powers in World War II, were made permanent members of the U.N. Security Council in 1945 and so have veto power over its decisions. Much larger countries do not, including India, Germany, Brazil and Japan. Attempts at reform have been thwarted since the 1960s.

“The United Nations system was formed when most of the countries of the world were not sovereign entities, and whether we like it or not, it cannot reflect a true representation of the world’s current realities,” said Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley.

“If we want to hold on to the past, we better get eyes in the back of our head rather than on the front of our head, because we are seeing the dying of the current world order.”

… Cooperation among the great powers at the U.N. began to unravel following the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, and ground to a halt after Russia’s full-scale war on Ukraine in 2022. Now the Security Council is deadlocked on all major issues, making the world body largely irrelevant.

… Yet it’s too early to write off the world body completely, said Michael Keating, executive director of the European Institute of Peace and a former senior U.N. diplomat in Somalia, Afghanistan and the Palestinian territories.

“People may come back to the U.N.—or something very like it—having been through the pain of realizing that the U.N. may be terrible, but the alternative to it is even worse,” he said.

“I just don’t know what the alternative is, other than a dog-eat-dog world.” …”
 

“Jake Sullivan — with three days left as White House national security adviser, with wide access to the world's secrets — called us to deliver a chilling, "catastrophic" warning for America and the incoming administration:

  • The next few years will determine whether artificial intelligence leads to catastrophe — and whether China or America prevails in the AI arms race.
Why it matters: Sullivan said in our phone interview that unlike previous dramatic technology advancements (atomic weapons, space, the internet), AI development sits outside of government and security clearances, and in the hands of private companies with the power of nation-states.

  • Underscoring the gravity of his message, Sullivan spoke with an urgency and directness that were rarely heard during his decade-plus in public life. …”
 
“…Somehow, government will have to join forces with these companies to nurture and protect America's early AI edge, and shape the global rules for using potentially God-like powers, he says.

  • U.S. failure to get this right, Sullivan warns, could be "dramatic, and dramatically negative — to include the democratization of extremely powerful and lethal weapons; massive disruption and dislocation of jobs; an avalanche of misinformation."
Staying ahead in the AI arms race makes the Manhattan Project during World War II seem tiny, and conventional national security debates small. It's potentially existential with implications for every nation and company.

  • To distill Sullivan: America must quickly perfect a technology that many believe will be smarter and more capable than humans. We need to do this without decimating U.S. jobs, and inadvertently unleashing something with capabilities we didn't anticipate or prepare for. We need to both beat China on the technology and in shaping and setting global usage and monitoring of it, so bad actors don't use it catastrophically. Oh, and it can only be done with unprecedented government-private sector collaboration — and probably difficult, but vital, cooperation with China.
"There's going to have to be a new model of relationship because of just the sheer capability in the hands of a private actor," Sullivan says. …”
 
nycfan said:

“Jake Sullivan — with three days left as White House national security adviser, with wide access to the world's secrets — called us to deliver a chilling, "catastrophic" warning for America and the incoming administration:

  • The next few years will determine whether artificial intelligence leads to catastrophe — and whether China or America prevails in the AI arms race.
Why it matters: Sullivan said in our phone interview that unlike previous dramatic technology advancements (atomic weapons, space, the internet), AI development sits outside of government and security clearances, and in the hands of private companies with the power of nation-states.

  • Underscoring the gravity of his message, Sullivan spoke with an urgency and directness that were rarely heard during his decade-plus in public life. …”
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When it comes to the LLM models that everyone is familiar with, open AI, Google and Facebook are at the top right now but Alibaba and a company called deepseek, both from China, are very close. I think the path that they are all taking is going to end up a commodity anyway, but I could be wrong and any one of them are a breakthrough away from changing the game. The French of all countries have two really good companies that are also in the conversation.

The US also has some of the best vision based AI companies out there.

Nvidia followed somewhat distantly by Google have the best chips out there. They are American companies while the chips are mostly manufactured in Taiwan.

I suspect the LLM models, example ChatGPT, are going to become pretty commoditized. It will take longer but I suspect the chips will be the same.

The real question is which companies and countries are able to leverage AI most effectively, ie build stuff on top of the commodity.

And of course who knows what any country is developing behind their classified walls.
 
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