US STRIKES VENEZUELA / CAPTURES MADURO

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“At this point, taking the actual operation, Trump’s press conference, and Delcy Rodriguez’s press conference into consideration, it seems fairly certain (though of course, unconfirmed) that Maduro was given up by the remaining government apparatus in a back channel deal. They likely used the only card they had to play: only we can ensure stability; the alternative - a full regime change with oppo installed in power - would result in chaos and bloodshed that the US would then have to manage with troops on the ground. In exchange, they gave Trump two things: oil (for cash) and Maduro (for show). Plus ancillary players get some of what they wanted: Hegseth gets his macho moment and Rubio gets to strangle Cuba. But, anti imperialist chest beating aside, the remaining Ven gov’t now has to do Trump’s bidding with a massive Damocles sword over its head. Not that they mind: ideology has long been dead for them. Of course, in geopolitics everything can change on a dime. But that’s what it looks like to me as this long day turns to night, with MCM as the biggest loser among the notable players. And as always, those who will bear the biggest brunt are Venezuelans, in Ven and out. For them, the tragedy continues.”

Alejandro Velasco, a leading historian of twentieth century Venezuela.

 
Anyone seen any estimates of to what degree US sanctions and other economic acts of sabotage directed at Venezuela have contributed to the ruin of the economy?
 


🎁 —> https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/...c?st=dQL7w2&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Also, accidentally copied this gift link for last month’s NYT article referenced previously that built up Delcy Rodriguez as a moderate — essentially wasted one of my 10 gift links for the month but oh well —> Trump Wants Venezuela’s Leader to Go. Here’s Who Could Replace Him.

I subscribe and never use the gift links (or even know how to). Let me know if you need my login to use them.
 
So there's some sort of deal between the Venezuelan Government and Trump? There are reports that the milbloggers in Moscow are freaking out about this. Guess they thought Venezuela had its uses for evading sanctions and what not.

Perhaps there will be a tug of war between Putin and Trump over which way Venezuela swings, so time will be needed to see if this actually plays out to Trump's benefit.
 
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“… Speaking to The Post on Sunday, Trump brushed aside questions about backing opposition figures — including leader and Nobel Peace Prize winner Maria Corina Machado — saying none currently command the support needed to lead the country.

“I don’t think she’s got the support of the people that she has to have,” Trump said. “That’s all.”

… Pressed on whether he would support Machado if she won an election, Trump was noncommittal — arguing that Venezuela’s collapse makes elections a secondary concern.

“We should run the country properly,” Trump said.

About Machado, he said, “She could only win an election if I did support her. But I like her very much.”…”
 
“… Speaking to The Post on Sunday, Trump brushed aside questions about backing opposition figures — including leader and Nobel Peace Prize winner Maria Corina Machado — saying none currently command the support needed to lead the country.

“I don’t think she’s got the support of the people that she has to have,” Trump said. “That’s all.”

… Pressed on whether he would support Machado if she won an election, Trump was noncommittal — arguing that Venezuela’s collapse makes elections a secondary concern.

“We should run the country properly,” Trump said.

About Machado, he said, “She could only win an election if I did support her. But I like her very much.”…”
“… “We should run the country with law and order. We should run the country where we can take advantage of the economics of what they have — which is valuable oil and valuable other things.”…
 


🎁 —> https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/...c?st=dQL7w2&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Also, accidentally copied this gift link for last month’s NYT article referenced previously that built up Delcy Rodriguez as a moderate — essentially wasted one of my 10 gift links for the month but oh well —> Trump Wants Venezuela’s Leader to Go. Here’s Who Could Replace Him.

I rarely share more than one or two links each month. Let me know if there’s something you want to share.
 
Anyone seen any estimates of to what degree US sanctions and other economic acts of sabotage directed at Venezuela have contributed to the ruin of the economy?
IIRC, the economic collapse was already underway before the 2017 sanctions. Oil dependence, combined with Chavista mismanagement of PDVSA, left Venezuela vulnerable. Then oil prices collapsed in 2014, and the economy entered free fall. The later sanctions in 17 and 19 made a bad situation much worse and actively contributed to the humanitarian crisis.

WOLA study: https://www.wola.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Oliveros-report-summary-ENG.pdf
 
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