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USA Impacts of bombing Iran

p5mmr9 said:
Not really.

The Fifth Fleet is stationed in Bahrain. It is really unlikely the try to close the strait. Also it would be self defeating since their own oil industry uses the strait to export to China.
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On paper, Iran could mine the strait west and south of a passage that allows exports from Bandar Abbas to move out.

Iran's Bandar Abbas Port Explosion: A Geopolitical Flashpoint for Oil Markets

Iran's Bandar Abbas Port Explosion: A Geopolitical Flashpoint for Oil Markets
www.ainvest.com


Regardless, man we really need to get back on the Green Energy path!
 
Slightly unrelated, but has anyone else ever thought about gas prices after Katrina?

If I remember correctly, it was still only around $2/gallon or so at the time. May have still been $1 something.

Anyhow, skyrocketed after. And they never took the prices back down, even after recovering.

I guess they figured we were willing to pay. And we were.
 
Wheels81 said:
That would be met with resistance from the Drill, Baby, Drill crowd.
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Ironically, oil futures were too low before all this to encourage more exploration. The US already can produce plenty of oil. But our refining capacity is finite and were close to max...and oil is a global market. Even with the US and Canada increasing oil production and exports, O&G futures would still skyrocket.

The Saudis would not be able to export a lot of their oil. They've have to use the Suez Canal, which often is traffic jammed.
 
MendotoManteo said:
Slightly unrelated, but has anyone else ever thought about gas prices after Katrina?

If I remember correctly, it was still only around $2/gallon or so at the time. May have still been $1 something.

Anyhow, skyrocketed after. And they never took the prices back down, even after recovering.

I guess they figured we were willing to pay. And we were.
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Rocket up, then feather float down consumer pricing is profit making, price gouging tactic, is always done in any crisis-shaped-looking-like thing. As it was during Covid-19, too. It has little or sometimes nothing to do with actual production shortage, but CEO decisions on how much to do it, and any risk of being called on it.
 
Completely hypothetical, but this scenario would allow Iran to export substantial oil flows, but would restrict Iraq, Saudis, Qatar, and UAE.



mines.jpg
 
an0maly said:
Rocket up, then feather float down consumer pricing is profit making, price gouging tactic, is always done in any crisis-shaped-looking-like thing. As it was during Covid-19, too. It has little or sometimes nothing to do with actual production shortage, but CEO decisions on how much to do it, and any risk of being called on it.
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Absolutely. And would happen again. Until a couple of weeks ago, oil futures had sunk into the high 50s and low 60/ba without any reduction in gasoline $.
 
Duke Mu said:
On paper, Iran could mine the strait west and south of a passage that allows exports from Bandar Abbas to move out.

Iran's Bandar Abbas Port Explosion: A Geopolitical Flashpoint for Oil Markets

Iran's Bandar Abbas Port Explosion: A Geopolitical Flashpoint for Oil Markets
www.ainvest.com


Regardless, man we really need to get back on the Green Energy path!
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Then we would clear the mines and destroy their ports and their ability to mine the strait again.

There is a lot of doomsaying here. I think the most likely outcome is that a regime that has spent the last 45 years preserving and maintaining its grip on power in spite of all the pressure the west could provide outside a military invasion will walk back from the abyss and self preserve its position of power on Iran by trying to de-escalate. The real question is whether or not the Trump administration will take the win.
 
p5mmr9 said:
Then we would clear the mines and destroy their ports and their ability to mine the strait again.

There is a lot of doomsaying here. I think the most likely outcome is that a regime that has spent the last 45 years preserving and maintaining its grip on power in spite of all the pressure the west could provide outside a military invasion will walk back from the abyss and self preserve its position of power on Iran by trying to de-escalate. The real question is whether or not the Trump administration will take the win.
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Careful with your logic and reason here. The people are convinced that World War III is imminent. To suggest otherwise is to run afoul of the groupthink.
 
ZZLPHeels said:
Careful with your logic and reason here. The people are convinced that World War III is imminent. To suggest otherwise is to run afoul of the groupthink.
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Jesus. Man. Post and engage all you want, but this passive aggressive pity party is a bad look.

Is there a liberal bias here just as there was on the zzl? Sure, there is.

Do republican viewpoints often get criticized more? Absolutely.

But bringing it up constantly isn't going to change anything, but it will make it less likely that your actual points are heard.
 
p5mmr9 said:
Then we would clear the mines and destroy their ports and their ability to mine the strait again.

There is a lot of doomsaying here. I think the most likely outcome is that a regime that has spent the last 45 years preserving and maintaining its grip on power in spite of all the pressure the west could provide outside a military invasion will walk back from the abyss and self preserve its position of power on Iran by trying to de-escalate. The real question is whether or not the Trump administration will take the win.
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I assume that you are in the military and have access to public and classified information that we have the minesweepers at the ready. I also assume that you were awake during some portion of 2001-2021 when a handful of terrorists in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria bogged us down for 20 years and drained $5T out of the US budget. Add an additional $6 trillion due to Bush and Trump tax breaks for the rich. With an addition $37T if the current bill is passed.


Once a war is entered, things are aren't always so clear and finite. "Mission accomplished."

centerformaritimestrategy.org

Don’t Sweep Minesweepers Under the Rug: America’s Critical Naval Vulnerability - Center for Maritime Strategy

The Trump Administration has prioritized making the American military more lethal, agile, and capable, with a hyper-focus is on making sure the U.S. Navy is ready for the next war. The Navy intends to invest in drones and a "hybrid fleet" of manned and unmanned systems. Unfortunately, while...
centerformaritimestrategy.org centerformaritimestrategy.org
 
sringwal said:
Jesus. Man. Post and engage all you want, but this passive aggressive pity party is a bad look.

Is there a liberal bias here just as there was on the zzl? Sure, there is.

Do republican viewpoints often get criticized more? Absolutely.

But bringing it up constantly isn't going to change anything, but it will make it less likely that your actual points are heard.
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I'm not worried about a liberal/conservative balance. At this point, reality has a liberal bias because the conservatives have gone full-on anti-science. I'm simply annoyed at being personally attacked for expressing a viewpoint that is barely even controversial. It is tiring.
 
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