Venezuela Elections

[superrific]

I hate it when the press uses the phrase "irregularities" to refer to straight up election fraud. It both covers up the nature of what is really happening (i.e. who cares about whether the election was regular? We care about whether the person who wins gets to take power) and makes the phrase "irregularity" seem ominous. There were irregularities in 2020; the Covid absentee ballot procedures were not regular. But there was nothing wrong with the irregularities, as they were not fraudulent.

The media -- and election observers and pro-democracy think tanks -- do the world a grave disservice when conflating fraud and things that don't happen all the time.

 

[donbosco]

This is the authoritarian playbook now.

 

[donbosco]

I give the blog, “Latin America Risk Report,” of James Bosworth (aka Boz) regular reads

“Venezuela post-election scenario memo - 30 July 2024”

Venezuela post-election scenario memo - 30 July 2024

Edmundo Gonzalez won the election. Maduro is trying to steal it. Here are the scenarios in which change occurs.

boz.substack.com

 

[donbosco]

 

[Centerpiece]

That my friends is how you steal an election.

 

[CRHeel94]

Saw reports that the opposition kept record of their voting tables representing a little over 73% of the tables with a sizable advantage for Gonzalez (more than a million votes, about a 60-30 split).

The CNE still has not published the results by voting table, something they said they would do when they declared Madure the winner at midnight on Sunday.

Today will be another day of massive protests. Maduro and his defense minister are saying they will arrest Machado and Gonzalez for terrorist acts. There have been some reports of police and army units turning but its hard to determine how many and confirm veracity.

Venezuela broke diplomatic ties with 9 countries who questioned the electoral results. Was happy to see Costa Rica on the list. Was shocked that Buckle came out and criticized the electoral result; he usually doesn't issue opinions so that no one meddles with him.

Fresh protests in Venezuela as anger grows at disputed election result

The opposition says it has proof President Maduro's victory claim is fraudulent; his defence minster has warned of a "coup".

www.bbc.com

Carter Center unable to verify Venezuela election results, blasts officials for lack of transparency

The Carter Center said it was unable to verify the results of Venezuela’s presidential election and blamed authorities for a “complete lack of transparency” in declaring Nicolas Maduro the winner without providing any individual polling tallies.

apnews.com

 

[nycfan]

 

[nycfan]

 

[superrific]

Now he's talking about how great our oil is? Seriously?

 

[CRHeel94]

The US State Department recognizing Edmundo Gonzalez as the winner. The CNE has still not published the "actas" (results by voting table).

https://www.state.gov/assessing-the-results-of-venezuelas-presidential-election/

 

[CRHeel94]

This is a good piece by the BBC explaining how Maduro is trying to use the courts to stay in power. This is what happens when your institutions break down and democracy goes off the rails.

Venezuela election: Maduro's manoeuvres to stay in power

Under pressure to back up claims he won the election, President Maduro turns to the country's top court.

www.bbc.com

 

[CRHeel94]

Still waiting to see the "official" voting acts. Large street protest on Saturday, but the military and police apparatus are standing behind Maduro.

Evidence shows Venezuela’s election was stolen – but will Maduro budge?

Analyses indicate Nicolás Maduro lost the presidential election, but country’s leader shows no signs of stepping aside

www.theguardian.com

 

[nycfan]

 

[altmin]

when you can't stop things from slipping through your fingers as you tighten the fist, the next step is almost always to use it to start punching

 

[donbosco]

This interview/debate was instructive for me:

In Venezuela, tensions are rising over the contested results of last Sunday’s presidential election. In the latest developments, opposition candidate Edmundo González published a count of thousands of vote tally sheets alleging that he received more votes than sitting President Nicolás Maduro, who is claiming to have secured a third term fairly. Protesters from both sides have taken to the streets; more than a dozen have been killed by Venezuelan armed forces. Maduro has called for a “new revolution” if the U.S. and other foreign actors continue to back his opposition and dispute the integrity of the election. We hear opinions from both camps on the show today. “There’s no doubt that Maduro lost these elections,” says Venezuelan sociologist Edgardo Lander, who contends that sufficient evidence of Maduro’s win “that’s expected and established by the law is completely absent,” while legal scholar Nina Farnia, who served as electoral observer in this year’s election, says she witnessed a “free and fair election process” and supports the Electoral Council’s decision.

There is a transcript at the link. The interchange is short but worthy of anyone’s time IMO.


For me, I most definitely don’t trust Maduro - his government of authoritarian. The choice given the Venezuelans was piss poor but that’s part of the overall anti-democracy. Pro-authoritarian playbook - as is sowing the kind of chaos that results in elections being thrown into the courts, where partisan judges decide for the old adage of the caudillo national security state - “Progress and Order.” Of course you have to extract the Cold War Environment from that equation and insert a new one that leans on a new type of 21st Century Fascism versus a fuzzy-around-the-edges Reformist Constitutional Democratic Republican Electoral movement/dream.

 

[donbosco]

Maduro orders X/Twitter blocked in Venezuela for 10 days.

 

[SmilingJack]

Corporations are absolutely not people they are soulless bastards and deserve nothing. For the sake of God can we stop the trickle down shit and empower each other instead of the rich. We all want to be rich no doubt but we all need it to be fair.
Elon Musk is a South Africa racist fascist and gives no damn about anything but money and where he can stick his privileged dick. Dude thinks we are stupid and I'm starting to realize what's always been true...Rich Folks are different and hate us. There's no way in hell that any of the idiots in the Republican party at least top of the ticket give a s*** about poor people like us.

 

[CRHeel94]

Choices were poor by design of the Maduro regime.

What's been interesting to watch is how the other LatAm countries have chimed in.
Boric (Chile) has been a beacon of rectitude.
A group of nine countries that includes Costa Rica, Guatemala, and others have come out against Maduro.
Milei (Argentina) was against, even before any results came in.
AMLO (Mexico), Petro (Colombia) and Lula have been varying degrees of milquetoast, finding ways to contort themselves to find a way out for Maduro. Metro has been straight
Ortega (Nicaragua) and Diaz (Cuba): nothing but full-throated support
Bukele (El Salvador) has been a very curious case, he usually sits these out...he has taken a line of not opining about situations in other countries, so that others don't have opinions about what he's doing (rolling back democracy in ES). He has taken this to a point where he abstains from any vote in the OEA with a very specific disclaimer. I wonder why he changed his mind. In any event, he's come out hard against Maduro.

 

[donbosco]

World Politics Review - As Maduro Cracks Down, Venezuela's Opposition Plots Its Next Move: As Maduro Cracks Down, Venezuela’s Opposition Plots Its Next Move



NYT - 'Operation Knock-Knock': https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/10/world/americas/venezuela-election-maduro.html?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=emailVenezuela Sweeps Up Dissenters After Disputed Vote



CNN - Venezuela opposition: A black X is appearing on the doors of Maduro critics: https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/15/amer...dex.html?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

 

[superrific]

Choices were poor by design of the Maduro regime.

What's been interesting to watch is how the other LatAm countries have chimed in.
Boric (Chile) has been a beacon of rectitude.
A group of nine countries that includes Costa Rica, Guatemala, and others have come out against Maduro.
Milei (Argentina) was against, even before any results came in.
AMLO (Mexico), Petro (Colombia) and Lula have been varying degrees of milquetoast, finding ways to contort themselves to find a way out for Maduro. Metro has been straight
Ortega (Nicaragua) and Diaz (Cuba): nothing but full-throated support
Bukele (El Salvador) has been a very curious case, he usually sits these out...he has taken a line of not opining about situations in other countries, so that others don't have opinions about what he's doing (rolling back democracy in ES). He has taken this to a point where he abstains from any vote in the OEA with a very specific disclaimer. I wonder why he changed his mind. In any event, he's come out hard against Maduro.

By find a way out for Maduro, do you mean, "find a way out of the country," or "find some justification to allow Maduro to stay in power"?