2 Days out predictions for Electoral College

EhringhausSouth

EhringhausSouth

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Harris starting with 215 safe electoral votes.

Harris wins Minnesota by 6.7% to get to 225 Electoral votes
Harris wins Michigan by 3.9% to get to 240 Electoral Votes
Harris wins Wisconsin by 2.7% to get to 250 Electoral Votes
Harris wins Nevada by 2.1% to get to 256 Electoral Votes
Pennsylvania is the tipping point state, Harris wins by 1.9% to get to 275 Electoral Votes
Harris tacks on North Carolina by 1.1% to get to 291 Electoral Votes
Harris picks up Nebraska's 2nd district to make her final tally 292 Electoral votes.






Trump starting with 179 safe electoral votes

Trump wins Texas by 5.5%. To move to 219 Electoral Votes
Trump wins Georgia by a narrow 0.9% to move to 235 Electoral Votes
Trump wins Arizona by a narrow 0.6% to move to 246 Electoral Votes




Final Score in Electoral College

Harris 292
Trump 246


Popular Vote %

Harris 51.2%
Trump 46.8%
others 2.0%

This is my prediction. I'm sticking to it
 
The trends make me think Trump will win but I think the idea that Trump voters are undercounted isnt supported by data when really examined. The undecided usually breaks for the newbie so I will say Harris wins the blue wall and takes NC because of Stein/Robinson.
 
If it’s a Harris win I think the blue wall + nc.

If it’s a trump win I think he takes 2/3 of the blue wall plus the rest of the bgs.
 
It breaks my heart but my current prediction is that Trump wins. He takes Nevada and Arizona plus 1 or 2 of the "blue wall" states and that's all he needs. He probably adds one or both of GA/NC.

There is an undeniable polling shift towards Trump, even when you ignore "red wave" pollsters. He has the best polling he's ever had this close to election day. It blows my mind but people are actually buying the BS on the economy and immigration. Many people will realize within six months that they made a horrible mistake when we have chaos on "deportation" and a renewed burst of inflation, but it won't matter anymore.

Trump could still blow it, especially if he holds another couple rallies like his MSG rally before election day. But I'm bracing for the worst. MAGA trolls and the "dirtbag right" have taken hold of the male demographic in this country, especially young males of all races, and are taking us to a dark place. I'm just not sure what will bring them back to reality. It may take military and/or economic disasters to do it; to shake us out of this drift towards authoritarianism.

If MAGA wins we all lose. We have to do whatever we wan to stop it. I'm right there with you hoping that Dem turnout and "ground game" will make the pollsters look clueless. But my suspicion is that this is hopium more than reality.
 
rodoheel said:
It breaks my heart but my current prediction is that Trump wins. He takes Nevada and Arizona plus 1 or 2 of the "blue wall" states and that's all he needs. He probably adds one or both of GA/NC.

There is an undeniable polling shift towards Trump, even when you ignore "red wave" pollsters. He has the best polling he's ever had this close to election day. It blows my mind but people are actually buying the BS on the economy and immigration. Many people will realize within six months that they made a horrible mistake when we have chaos on "deportation" and a renewed burst of inflation, but it won't matter anymore.

Trump could still blow it, especially if he holds another couple rallies like his MSG rally before election day. But I'm bracing for the worst. MAGA trolls and the "dirtbag right" have taken hold of the male demographic in this country, especially young males of all races, and are taking us to a dark place. I'm just not sure what will bring them back to reality. It may take military and/or economic disasters to do it; to shake us out of this drift towards authoritarianism.

If MAGA wins we all lose. We have to do whatever we wan to stop it. I'm right there with you hoping that Dem turnout and "ground game" will make the pollsters look clueless. But my suspicion is that this is hopium more than reality.
Click to expand...
This is how it feels to me.
 
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