2024 National & State Elections (Not POTUS)

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Jackson opens lead over Bishop in race for NC attorney general, WRAL News Poll finds

A large number of undecided voters could decide the race between two sitting congressmen.
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Forty-three percent of likely November voters support Jackson and 36% support Bishop, with 21% undecided, according to the poll of 676 likely voters, which was released Tuesday. The gap has widened significantly since March, when a previous WRAL News Poll showed Jackson with a 41%-to-40% lead over Bishop.
 
If the Democrats win the White House, which I feel is more likely than not, and if Republicans flip the Senate 51-49, which I feel is more likely than not, Democrats should offer Susan Collins a position in the administration and let the Democratic governor of Maine appoint a Democratic Senate member to replace her. Voila! Back to 50/50 with Tim Walz able to cast a deciding vote when necessary.
 
CFordUNC said:
If the Democrats win the White House, which I feel is more likely than not, and if Republicans flip the Senate 51-49, which I feel is more likely than not, Democrats should offer Susan Collins a position in the administration and let the Democratic governor of Maine appoint a Democratic Senate member to replace her. Voila! Back to 50/50 with Tim Walz able to cast a deciding vote when necessary.
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Actually not a bad idea at all. Harris has said she’s open to a Pub member of her Cabinet and Collins would be 80 by the end of a 2nd Harris term.
 
CFordUNC said:
Yep. And she has voted with Democrats in the past on issues like protecting IVF treatments, protecting gay marriage, etc.
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Seems like the power Collins would have in that scenario as the swing vote in the Senate would dwarf anything she could do in the administration. Not sure why she’d even think about giving that up.
 
I think Tester pulls it out, by the way. Incumbency always seems to count for a few unexpected points in those small state Senate races.
 
lawtig02 said:
Seems like the power Collins would have in that scenario as the swing vote in the Senate would dwarf anything she could do in the administration. Not sure why she’d even think about giving that up.
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Yeah, that's a great point, too. I hadn't thought of it like that but that's a good point.
 
lawtig02 said:
Seems like the power Collins would have in that scenario as the swing vote in the Senate would dwarf anything she could do in the administration. Not sure why she’d even think about giving that up.
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True, but she wouldn’t have to worry about another re-election run if she took a Cabinet position. Probably wishful thinking, but she is probably the best one to target in a Dem state, with a less-than-MAGA voting record, working for the first female POTUS.
 
Collins doesnt seem in the best health. She might take something for a couple of years because who knows when retirement or death is coming
 
RockyMtnHoo said:
Actually not a bad idea at all. Harris has said she’s open to a Pub member of her Cabinet and Collins would be 80 by the end of a 2nd Harris term.
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What federal agency do you hate so much that you'd put Susan Collins in charge of it?

I would maybe let her guard the bee in the basement of a nuclear plant, but nothing more than that.
 
aGDevil2k said:
. . .. Forty-three percent of likely November voters support Jackson and 36% support Bishop, with 21% undecided, according to the poll of 676 likely voters, which was released Tuesday. The gap has widened significantly since March, when a previous WRAL News Poll showed Jackson with a 41%-to-40% lead over Bishop.
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Bonus points for not starting a sentence with numerals.
 
lawtig02 said:
Seems like the power Collins would have in that scenario as the swing vote in the Senate would dwarf anything she could do in the administration. Not sure why she’d even think about giving that up.
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She would have zero power in a GOP Senate with a Dem president. Zero. The GOP Senate would be an exercise in pure obstruction and being a swing vote would be a bug, not a feature. She would be sidelined forever. She would only get leverage if she went with Angus King and started to caucus with the Dems.

If this scenario comes to pass, I'd take a different approach. I'd call her in for a meeting to talk judges. "Susan, we told you that Kav was going to overturn Roe the first chance he had. You didn't listen to us. Instead, you asked the man himself, and predictably he lied to your face. For some reason, you believed him despite having every indication that he was being untruthful. The point is, you owe the country at least one Supreme Court justice, probably two. So it's time for you to either caucus with us to keep Schumer in his job, or to resign so someone else can do what has to be done for women in this country."
 
superrific said:
She would have zero power in a GOP Senate with a Dem president. Zero. The GOP Senate would be an exercise in pure obstruction and being a swing vote would be a bug, not a feature. She would be sidelined forever. She would only get leverage if she went with Angus King and started to caucus with the Dems.

If this scenario comes to pass, I'd take a different approach. I'd call her in for a meeting to talk judges. "Susan, we told you that Kav was going to overturn Roe the first chance he had. You didn't listen to us. Instead, you asked the man himself, and predictably he lied to your face. For some reason, you believed him despite having every indication that he was being untruthful. The point is, you owe the country at least one Supreme Court justice, probably two. So it's time for you to either caucus with us to keep Schumer in his job, or to resign so someone else can do what has to be done for women in this country."
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Yeah, her power would be a threat to vote with the Dems, which would make it 50-50 and give the tiebreaker to Walz. That may be political suicide for her (although I’m not sure that’s the case in Maine), but at least for this term, it would give her a good bit of power.

Now, we all know Collins caves when push comes to shove, so I’m not suggesting she’d actually be willing to use that power. But she’d be in a position where she could at least threaten to do so.
 
Sad to say the power will be spent on milking the maximal amount of pork to deliver to Maine, but in no event would she ever buck the Pubs and cast a vote with the Dems (not necessarily because she wouldn't in theory, more because it will never not be worth it to the Pubs to buy her vote with whatever pork she's requesting).
 
I read that Stein's lead over Robinson in the polls continues to grow. Haven't heard anything about the race for the superintendent of public education, but hope the same is happening for Green over Morrow.
 
lawtig02 said:
Yeah, her power would be a threat to vote with the Dems, which would make it 50-50 and give the tiebreaker to Walz. That may be political suicide for her (although I’m not sure that’s the case in Maine), but at least for this term, it would give her a good bit of power.

Now, we all know Collins caves when push comes to shove, so I’m not suggesting she’d actually be willing to use that power. But she’d be in a position where she could at least threaten to do so.
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But, as we saw with Merrick Garland in 2016, she won't be allowed to vote with the Dems because the majority leader won't let anything come up for a vote if he's going to lose.

The only leverage she has is to caucus with the Dems. And that's not much leverage. Politicians who change parties rarely profit from it. Richard Shelby is a rare example from this century, and that was largely because Alabama just isn't competitive at all. Arlen Specter switched and did it help him? No. The reason he switched was that his position was weak, and switching didn't help. Sinema wasn't helped by party switching. Back when Jim Jeffords switched, he didn't last long IIRC. If Susan Collins is now going to be a Dem, why wouldn't Maine voters just vote for a real Dem?

Because of the way the Senate operates, Senators just don't have much leverage when the president is of the opposite party. And again, we saw that in 2016. Did Susan Collins want to vote for Merrick Garland? I believe she did, quite heartily. That's in part because Garland is the non-ideological centrist that Susan Collins fashions herself to be (she said that when she asked Garland about his judicial philosophy, and he said that he didn't really have one, she got practically giddy), and in part because it would help her electorally. And . . . there was no way for her to turn that into pressure. None. That would have been true even if Susan Collins had a spine.
 
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