superrific
Legend of ZZL
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I hope so. But in past cycles, IIRC, he's never been down this far. And my guess is that Cook knows plenty about the power of incumbency in those Western states, and has taken it into account. I mean, the race is "lean R" and not "likely R," so it's not over. Still, I don't know nearly enough about Montana politics to be able to say that the polls aren't telling the right story right now.
IOW, I can't see your "I think" as more than a "gut feel."
Senate candidates can only swim against the current for so long, and they often need good luck to hang on. Because Senate terms are so long, it can seem that they have been there forever, but Tester has only won three Senate races. The first was in the blue wave of '06. The third was in the blue wave of '18. He hung on in '12, but I don't think his opponent was strong (he had already run for Senate once and lost).
It reminds me of Claire McCaskill. She also won in the blue wave of '06. She held on in '12 because her opponent was the incredibly awful guy, Mr. "Legitimate rape" himself, Todd Akin. But her goose was cooked. She lost in '18, running against an opponent who managed to keep his misogyny at least a little bit under wraps.
I fear the same outcome for Sherrod Brown, but he's in a bit stronger position than Claire McCaskill (I can't really speak to Tester vs Brown). Ohio isn't THAT red, and at least some of the red there are union folk who tend to put culture war stuff ahead of their own economic interests. But as they showed in 2012, they won't necessarily do that infinitely. They did not like Mitt Romney one bit. And Bernie Moreno is a car salesman who was sued multiple times for wage theft. Gotta think he won't be popular in the union households, or at least less popular than a generic R.
