2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
  • Start date Start date
  • Replies: 6K
  • Views: 183K
  • Politics 
nycfan said:
Missouri:

emersoncollegepolling.com

Missouri September 2024 Poll: Republican Candidates Lead in President, Governor, Senate Races - Emerson Polling

Majority support ballot measures on abortion access & sports gambling An Emerson College Polling/The Hill…Full Release & Results
emersoncollegepolling.com emersoncollegepolling.com

Republicans are about +10 across the board, but "A majority of voters (58%) plan to vote in favor of the ballot measure to amend the Missouri Constitution to provide the right to reproductive freedom, while 30% plan to vote against it. Twelve percent are unsure."
Click to expand...

About 20% are voting *FOR* reproductive freedom AND *FOR* the guy who is against reproductive freedom. That's a lot of people trying to thread that needle. (more likely a bunch of low-info voters)
 
Last edited:
TarHeelGrad said:
I think it is more along the lines of "am I happy where I am right now". If the answer is yes, vote for the same party. If not, vote for the other party, because "different has to be better".
Click to expand...
That could be true. But I think the "am i happy right now" is largely tied to economy (i typed economics, but meant personal feelings about economy), like questions: do I feel good about job prospects, do I feel wages are okay, can I afford things.
 
theel4life said:
Kamala wins North Carolina and it’s over early on election night.
Click to expand...
This isn't true. A trade of NC and PA is not favorable to her. If she wins NC but loses PA she has work to do out west. Need at least NV in that case.

I think I know what you're saying: if Kamala wins NC, it means she's having a great night and will probably win other states. That would be my instinct. But at the moment, Kamala is polling basically identically in NC and PA, and historically they haven't been terribly correlated. So winning NC and losing PA is a possibility.

I do wonder if, in our age of polarized politics, all correlations are headed towards unity. Imagine a world in which there are only two options, call them R or D. Everyone is one or the other; there's no middle ground; and people have more or less the same issues that animate them. In that world, all states would be highly correlated and states would go Pub or Dem based on the numbers and enthusiasm of the voters within.

We're not there yet, but as the GOP manages to transform elections into all-purpose referenda about something bad happening somewhere while making themselves look like idiots to reasonable people, it's getting more that way. There's no middle ground on Haitians eating pets. Either you believe it's happening, in which case you're also likely to believe that severe immigration restrictions are necessary; or you don't, in which case you (hopefully) view Trump and Vance as tools of the greatest magnitude. Either way, it doesn't depend on where you live.
 
superrific said:
This isn't true. A trade of NC and PA is not favorable to her. If she wins NC but loses PA she has work to do out west. Need at least NV in that case.

I think I know what you're saying: if Kamala wins NC, it means she's having a great night and will probably win other states. That would be my instinct. But at the moment, Kamala is polling basically identically in NC and PA, and historically they haven't been terribly correlated. So winning NC and losing PA is a possibility.
Click to expand...
NC and PA haven't been terribly correlated (at the POTUS election level) because NC has been a fairly reliable Pub state and PA has been a fairly reliable Dem state over the last 30+ years. The only two times that hasn't been the case are in outlier elections (2008 and 2016) when one of them went the other way by a very small margin as part of a greater groundswell in that direction.

So it would be very, very unexpected for PA to go Trump while NC went Harris in the same election as the states would both have to go against type in opposite directions.

If Harris wins NC, I'd be fairly confident that she wins the election and that she carries PA. And if Trump wins PA, I'd be fairly confident that he wins the election and carries NC.

(That said, if she carries NC I doubt we'll actually know that on election night or at least anywhere near "early" on election night.)
 
SnoopRob said:
(That said, if she carries NC I doubt we'll actually know that on election night or at least anywhere near "early" on election night.)
Click to expand...
Your last point is what I said last time this issue came up. Unless this is a landslide election, NC and PA will likely not be called until fairly late on election night or the next morning.
 
More on Quinnipiac results: Swing State Poll 2024: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin: Harris Ahead In 2 Key Battleground States, 3rd State Up For Grabs, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; U.S. Senate Races: Democrats Have Leads In All 3 States | Quinnipiac University Poll

The economy:
  • PA: 50 percent say Trump, while 48 percent say Harris;
  • MI: 50 percent say Trump, while 48 percent say Harris;
  • WI: 51 percent say Trump, while 47 percent say Harris.

Immigration:
  • PA: 50 percent say Trump, while 46 percent say Harris;
  • MI: 49 percent say Trump, while 48 percent say Harris;
  • WI: 52 percent say Trump, while 45 percent say Harris.

Preserving democracy in the United States:
  • PA: 45 percent say Trump, while 52 percent say Harris;
  • MI: 45 percent say Trump, while 51 percent say Harris;
  • WI: 47 percent say Trump, while 50 percent say Harris.

Abortion:
  • PA: 38 percent say Trump, while 57 percent say Harris;
  • MI: 42 percent say Trump, while 53 percent say Harris;
  • WI: 40 percent say Trump, while 53 percent say Harris.

A crisis that put the country at great risk:
  • PA: 47 percent say Trump, while 49 percent say Harris;
  • MI: 47 percent say Trump, while 51 percent say Harris;
  • WI: 48 percent say Trump, while 49 percent say Harris.
 
nycfan said:


Wisconsin remains ... weird in polling data.
Click to expand...

How population is changing in Wisconsin and the Upper Midwest since the pandemic – Marquette University Law School Faculty Blog

law.marquette.edu law.marquette.edu

The pandemic and its aftermath is still the big story in this data. Cities across the country shrank. Some, like Detroit, have begun to grow. Despite Milwaukee Mayor Cavalier Johnson’s well-publicized goal of “1 million Milwaukeeans,” the city’s population recovery has yet to begin.

The latest estimates show positive signs for Wisconsin, but continued struggles for Milwaukee, relative to our midwestern peers. Wisconsin has largely returned to pre-pandemic form, while Milwaukee County is continuing to shrink at twice the rate of the 2010s.

Wisconsin added 20,000 net new residents from July 2022 to July 2023, a growth rate of 0.35%, which is practically identical to the state’s average growth rate during the previous decade. That growth was nearly double the state’s increase of 11,000 in 2022, which came on the heels of a 17,000-person loss in the first year of the pandemic.

Population change can be broken down into two components — net migration and natural change (births minus deaths). The next graph shows why each state grew or shrank over the past three years. Wisconsin’s 2023 growth rate falls below Minnesota and Indiana but above Michigan and Iowa. Illinois is still shrinking badly.

...
Milwaukee County’s population fell by an estimated 1,800 during the 12-month period ending July 2023. That was an improvement over the previous two years, when the population fell by 6,200 and 14,300, respectively. Still, the county shrank by 0.2% in 2023, compared with an average annual decline of less than 0.1% throughout the 2010s.

...
If the healthiest counties grow from births and migration, then the most troubled counties are shrinking for both reasons. These counties — which have more deaths than births and more leavers than comers — are found most commonly in rural Illinois and Iowa. In Wisconsin they include just Columbia, Crawford, Juneau, and Jackson counties.

Seven of the region’s largest 10 counties fall into the next category — where natural change is positive, but offset by out-migration. To put it reductively, people seem to have kids in these counties, then they leave. This status includes Milwaukee County; Cook, Kenosha, Lake, and DuPage counties in the Chicago metro; Wayne and Oakland counties in the Detroit metro; and Marion County (containing Indianapolis).
 
Also Quinnipiac:

PA:

Incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey leads Republican challenger David McCormick 52 - 43 percent, essentially unchanged from August.

Michigan:

"With a gender gap as wide as Lake Michigan, Harris leads Trump by about 20 percentage points among women and Trump leads Harris among men by half that," added Malloy.

Democratic Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin has a slight lead over former Republican Congressman Mike Rogers 51 - 46 percent in the U.S. Senate race in Michigan.

WI:

In a tight race, incumbent Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin has a slight lead over Republican challenger Eric Hovde 51 - 47 percent.
 
Seems like Wisconsin is bleeding blue area voters and it is being masked a bit by births, but those are non-voters.
 
nycfan said:
More on Quinnipiac results: Swing State Poll 2024: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin: Harris Ahead In 2 Key Battleground States, 3rd State Up For Grabs, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; U.S. Senate Races: Democrats Have Leads In All 3 States | Quinnipiac University Poll

The economy:
  • PA: 50 percent say Trump, while 48 percent say Harris;
  • MI: 50 percent say Trump, while 48 percent say Harris;
  • WI: 51 percent say Trump, while 47 percent say Harris.

Immigration:
  • PA: 50 percent say Trump, while 46 percent say Harris;
  • MI: 49 percent say Trump, while 48 percent say Harris;
  • WI: 52 percent say Trump, while 45 percent say Harris.

Preserving democracy in the United States:
  • PA: 45 percent say Trump, while 52 percent say Harris;
  • MI: 45 percent say Trump, while 51 percent say Harris;
  • WI: 47 percent say Trump, while 50 percent say Harris.

Abortion:
  • PA: 38 percent say Trump, while 57 percent say Harris;
  • MI: 42 percent say Trump, while 53 percent say Harris;
  • WI: 40 percent say Trump, while 53 percent say Harris.

A crisis that put the country at great risk:
  • PA: 47 percent say Trump, while 49 percent say Harris;
  • MI: 47 percent say Trump, while 51 percent say Harris;
  • WI: 48 percent say Trump, while 49 percent say Harris.
Click to expand...

Confused Always Sunny GIF by It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top