2024 Political Polls

[finesse]

Bout the same as Hillary had going in. Eyes on the prize.

I doubt there is nearly the same number of Trump supporters unwilling to admit it as there were in 2016. Currently, most seem to revel in it.

I do get your point, though.

 

[HeelingAg]

“… Morning Consult pollsters surveyed 11,022 likely U.S. voters from Sept. 13-15 in the poll, which had an unweighted margin of error of +/-1 percentage point.

• Morning Consult notes that its survey showing support for Harris at 51% compared to 45% for Trump was a "new record" for the Democratic presidential nominee.
• "Her 51% of support among likely voters, which is also at a record high, is driven largely by her best figures to date among Democrats, Biden 2020 voters, liberals, women, 18- to 34-year-olds and millennials," it said. …”

https://www.axios.com/2024/09/17/harris-leads-trump-poll-after-debate-record?utm_campaign=editorial&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

Bout the same as Hillary had going in. Eyes on the prize.

Agree, eyes on the prize. Donate, phone bank, door knock, write letters, etc.

Also, the polling methodologies from 2016 and 2024 have been adjusted quite a bit [sign of the cross].

 

[nycfan]

 

[theel4life]

We need to get that up to 8-10.

 

[kickazzz2000]

o das coo

 

[HeelingAg]

We need to get that up to 8-10.

Not sure that number is feasible given ttump will receive 45% of the vote, even if he strokes out at his next Nuremberg rally.

Eight+ in high quality polls on election day will allow me to watch election night with moderately anxious excitement; anything less than eight and I won't eat, BP up, breath shallow, pacing ... just a whole mess of sympathetic nervous system responses.

 

[Geisterfahrer]

We need to get that up to 8-10.

Not remotely realistic.

 

[finesse]

Not remotely realistic.

Not so sure. The more it expands, the more likely that Trump goes so apoplectic that fewer and fewer people can ignore it. It's a trend that might even feed on itself.

I don't particularly picture Vance as the cavalry coming to the rescue ,either.

 

[milom98]

If you don't have any contact with MAGAs, just know that "all the polls" they show on the Fox News primetime opinion programs have Trump winning every swing state and it's only getting worse from here on out for Harris.

At least that is how it was told to me out of the blue by my Fox News Trump loving father. We were having a conversation about the Titans stinking and I guess he decided to drop that little nugget of information in there right at the end as a "Go team!!!! Yeah, I've got a winning team" dunk on me. Idk, but I just laughed and said "uh oh, if all the polls shown on Fox News are saying that, then it's probably over for Harris." and ended the whole conversation before more bs started flowing. But he definitely understood that I was trolling him by the tone I used when saying that.

 

[lawtig02]

Not sure that number is feasible given ttump will receive 45% of the vote, even if he strokes out at his next Nuremberg rally.

Eight+ in high quality polls on election day will allow me to watch election night with moderately anxious excitement; anything less than eight and I won't eat, BP up, breath shallow, pacing ... just a whole mess of sympathetic nervous system responses.

Barring something really strange happening in the swing states, 6+ on Election Day would probably be safe, and Kamala would be strongly favored at anything above 4. I get what you’re saying about feeling safe though.

 

[HeelingAg]

Barring something really strange happening in the swing states, 6+ on Election Day would probably be safe, and Kamala would be strongly favored at anything above 4. I get what you’re saying about feeling safe though.

Yeah, I don't think I'll ever get past the "it's over feeling" from 2016.

I was on the west coast, and as I left a microbiology practical I looked at the early returns from PA and NC, and immediately said "nothing matters". I proceeded to an election gathering, as planned, with a feeling of genuine anhedonia, which other partygoers didn't understand b/c "it's so early". I left about 30 minutes later because I didn't want to sink deeper as the others individually came to the same realization, and I knew a second beer would release a cynicism I did not want to ply upon friends.

It was that night I learned my habit of tracking politics far exceeded my milieu.

 

[nycfan]

 

[lawtig02]

Awfully nice to see presidential candidates in positive territory. It’s been a while.

 

[nycfan]

 

[nycfan]

 

[HeelingAg]

Realizing there are millions of extremely low information voters might be my biggest political blind spot.

 

[nycfan]

 

[gregh1]

If they vote they're simply voting on economic guesses and "strong pres" vs "weak pres".

 

[nycfan]

Missouri:

Missouri September 2024 Poll: Republican Candidates Lead in President, Governor, Senate Races - Emerson Polling

Majority support ballot measures on abortion access & sports gambling An Emerson College Polling/The Hill…Full Release & Results

emersoncollegepolling.com

Republicans are about +10 across the board, but "A majority of voters (58%) plan to vote in favor of the ballot measure to amend the Missouri Constitution to provide the right to reproductive freedom, while 30% plan to vote against it. Twelve percent are unsure."

 

[lawtig02]

Recent high quality polls have been very good for Kamala. If you discount the red wave polls, I think her advantage is more like +4 or 4.5 nationally right now. She’s in good shape, and has a great chance to nail it down with the remaining undecideds.