2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

[lawtig02]

Not sure that number is feasible given ttump will receive 45% of the vote, even if he strokes out at his next Nuremberg rally.

Eight+ in high quality polls on election day will allow me to watch election night with moderately anxious excitement; anything less than eight and I won't eat, BP up, breath shallow, pacing ... just a whole mess of sympathetic nervous system responses.

Barring something really strange happening in the swing states, 6+ on Election Day would probably be safe, and Kamala would be strongly favored at anything above 4. I get what you’re saying about feeling safe though.

 

[Healing]

Barring something really strange happening in the swing states, 6+ on Election Day would probably be safe, and Kamala would be strongly favored at anything above 4. I get what you’re saying about feeling safe though.

Yeah, I don't think I'll ever get past the "it's over feeling" from 2016.

I was on the west coast, and as I left a microbiology practical I looked at the early returns from PA and NC, and immediately said "nothing matters". I proceeded to an election gathering, as planned, with a feeling of genuine anhedonia, which other partygoers didn't understand b/c "it's so early". I left about 30 minutes later because I didn't want to sink deeper as the others individually came to the same realization, and I knew a second beer would release a cynicism I did not want to ply upon friends.

It was that night I learned my habit of tracking politics far exceeded my milieu.

 

[nycfan]

 

[lawtig02]

Awfully nice to see presidential candidates in positive territory. It’s been a while.

 

[nycfan]

 

[nycfan]

 

[Healing]

Realizing there are millions of extremely low information voters might be my biggest political blind spot.

 

[nycfan]

 

[gregh1]

If they vote they're simply voting on economic guesses and "strong pres" vs "weak pres".

 

[nycfan]

Missouri:

Missouri September 2024 Poll: Republican Candidates Lead in President, Governor, Senate Races - Emerson Polling

Majority support ballot measures on abortion access & sports gambling An Emerson College Polling/The Hill…Full Release & Results

emersoncollegepolling.com

Republicans are about +10 across the board, but "A majority of voters (58%) plan to vote in favor of the ballot measure to amend the Missouri Constitution to provide the right to reproductive freedom, while 30% plan to vote against it. Twelve percent are unsure."

 

[lawtig02]

Recent high quality polls have been very good for Kamala. If you discount the red wave polls, I think her advantage is more like +4 or 4.5 nationally right now. She’s in good shape, and has a great chance to nail it down with the remaining undecideds.

 

[TarHeelGrad]

If they vote they're simply voting on economic guesses and "strong pres" vs "weak pres".

I think it is more along the lines of "am I happy where I am right now". If the answer is yes, vote for the same party. If not, vote for the other party, because "different has to be better".

 

[SnoopRob]

I think it is more along the lines of "am I happy where I am right now". If the answer is yes, vote for the same party. If not, vote for the other party, because "different has to be better".

I agree that this seems to be the reasoning for many low information/engagement swing voters.

And a lot of them seem ready to change every 4-8 years because they're rarely happy with how things are going.

 

[Calheel]

I think it is more along the lines of "am I happy where I am right now". If the answer is yes, vote for the same party. If not, vote for the other party, because "different has to be better".

It is not that it has to be better but that it has the potential to be better. It is the same reason you fire a coach. The replacement coach may or may not be better but you know the existing coach won’t get it done.

 

[Centerpiece]

“Alright boys, it’s the end of the 3rd quarter, we’re up by a touchdown on the scoreboard, but we need to play like we’re down 10 on the field. We’re behind and the other team is ready to steam roll us. Now get out there and do your job. Play hard, smart and together! WIN on three…. Ready? 1, 2, 3, WIN!”

 

[aGDevil2k]

“Alright boys, it’s the end of the 3rd quarter, we’re up by a touchdown on the scoreboard, but we need to play like we’re down 10 on the field. We’re behind and the other team is ready to steam roll us. Now get out there and do your job. Play hard, smart and together! WIN on three…. Ready? 1, 2, 3, WIN!”

 

[lightbluenc]

And sorry, don't worry that the other team has released a pack of wild boars onto the field, instructed their fans to throw objects at you on the sideline and asked for the officials to review every play, flag or not.

 

[Bigs23]

And sorry, don't worry that the other team has released a pack of wild boars onto the field, instructed their fans to throw objects at you on the sideline and asked for the officials to review every play, flag or not.

Remember the Baylor game? Heels still won.

 

[nycfan]

AJC still has Trump +3 (down from +5) in Georgia



“…The Republican drew 47% support in the poll while Harris was at 44% — within the poll’s margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. About 7% of voters said they were undecided. Libertarian Chase Oliver and other third-party candidates polled below 1%. …”

For reference, the AJC September 2020 poll of Georgia had Trump and Biden tied at 47%, and Purdue ahead of Ossoff 47 - 44.6% … while Warnock was in third place and at risk of not making a runoff election for the remaining two years of that Senate seat.

The final results in 2020 were Biden 49.47%, Trump 49.24%.

Purdue got 49.73% to Ossoff’s 47.95%, but needed 50% to avoid a runoff. Ossoff got just over 50% in the runoff ( with turnout shockingly close to the original November election for a runoff). Ossoff garnered 95.5% of his November vote total, but Purdue only got 89.9% of his November vote total.

Were the 250,000 or so voters Purdue lost from the general election to the runoff Trump supporters following Trump’s temper tantrum about voter fraud in Georgia, or persuadable Republican voters?

 

[lawtig02]

AJC still has Trump +3 (down from +5) in Georgia



“…The Republican drew 47% support in the poll while Harris was at 44% — within the poll’s margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. About 7% of voters said they were undecided. Libertarian Chase Oliver and other third-party candidates polled below 1%. …”

For reference, the AJC September 2020 poll of Georgia had Trump and Biden tied at 47%, and Purdue ahead of Ossoff 47 - 44.6% … while Warnock was in third place and at risk of not making a runoff election for the remaining two years of that Senate seat.

The final results in 2020 were Biden 49.47%, Trump 49.24%.

Purdue got 49.73% to Ossoff’s 47.95%, but needed 50% to avoid a runoff. Ossoff got just over 50% in the runoff ( with turnout shockingly close to the original November election for a runoff). Ossoff garnered 95.5% of his November vote total, but Purdue only got 89.9% of his November vote total.

Were the 250,000 or so voters Purdue lost from the general election to the runoff Trump supporters following Trump’s temper tantrum about voter fraud in Georgia, or persuadable Republican voters?

I read this as Kamala having a lot of work to do in Georgia, but Trump still at 47% is a good sign. It suggests that may be his cap there. Georgia has broken to the Dems late in the last few cycles, so it’s definitely in play this year.