2024 Political Polls

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gregh1 said:
If they vote they're simply voting on economic guesses and "strong pres" vs "weak pres".
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I think it is more along the lines of "am I happy where I am right now". If the answer is yes, vote for the same party. If not, vote for the other party, because "different has to be better".
 
TarHeelGrad said:
I think it is more along the lines of "am I happy where I am right now". If the answer is yes, vote for the same party. If not, vote for the other party, because "different has to be better".
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I agree that this seems to be the reasoning for many low information/engagement swing voters.

And a lot of them seem ready to change every 4-8 years because they're rarely happy with how things are going.
 
TarHeelGrad said:
I think it is more along the lines of "am I happy where I am right now". If the answer is yes, vote for the same party. If not, vote for the other party, because "different has to be better".
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It is not that it has to be better but that it has the potential to be better. It is the same reason you fire a coach. The replacement coach may or may not be better but you know the existing coach won’t get it done.
 
“Alright boys, it’s the end of the 3rd quarter, we’re up by a touchdown on the scoreboard, but we need to play like we’re down 10 on the field. We’re behind and the other team is ready to steam roll us. Now get out there and do your job. Play hard, smart and together! WIN on three…. Ready? 1, 2, 3, WIN!”
 
AJC still has Trump +3 (down from +5) in Georgia



“…The Republican drew 47% support in the poll while Harris was at 44% — within the poll’s margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. About 7% of voters said they were undecided. Libertarian Chase Oliver and other third-party candidates polled below 1%. …”

For reference, the AJC September 2020 poll of Georgia had Trump and Biden tied at 47%, and Purdue ahead of Ossoff 47 - 44.6% … while Warnock was in third place and at risk of not making a runoff election for the remaining two years of that Senate seat.

The final results in 2020 were Biden 49.47%, Trump 49.24%.

Purdue got 49.73% to Ossoff’s 47.95%, but needed 50% to avoid a runoff. Ossoff got just over 50% in the runoff ( with turnout shockingly close to the original November election for a runoff). Ossoff garnered 95.5% of his November vote total, but Purdue only got 89.9% of his November vote total.

Were the 250,000 or so voters Purdue lost from the general election to the runoff Trump supporters following Trump’s temper tantrum about voter fraud in Georgia, or persuadable Republican voters?
 
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nycfan said:
AJC still has Trump +3 (down from +5) in Georgia



“…The Republican drew 47% support in the poll while Harris was at 44% — within the poll’s margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. About 7% of voters said they were undecided. Libertarian Chase Oliver and other third-party candidates polled below 1%. …”

For reference, the AJC September 2020 poll of Georgia had Trump and Biden tied at 47%, and Purdue ahead of Ossoff 47 - 44.6% … while Warnock was in third place and at risk of not making a runoff election for the remaining two years of that Senate seat.

The final results in 2020 were Biden 49.47%, Trump 49.24%.

Purdue got 49.73% to Ossoff’s 47.95%, but needed 50% to avoid a runoff. Ossoff got just over 50% in the runoff ( with turnout shockingly close to the original November election for a runoff). Ossoff garnered 95.5% of his November vote total, but Purdue only got 89.9% of his November vote total.

Were the 250,000 or so voters Purdue lost from the general election to the runoff Trump supporters following Trump’s temper tantrum about voter fraud in Georgia, or persuadable Republican voters?
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I read this as Kamala having a lot of work to do in Georgia, but Trump still at 47% is a good sign. It suggests that may be his cap there. Georgia has broken to the Dems late in the last few cycles, so it’s definitely in play this year.
 
nycfan said:
Missouri:

emersoncollegepolling.com

Missouri September 2024 Poll: Republican Candidates Lead in President, Governor, Senate Races - Emerson Polling

Majority support ballot measures on abortion access & sports gambling An Emerson College Polling/The Hill…Full Release & Results
emersoncollegepolling.com emersoncollegepolling.com

Republicans are about +10 across the board, but "A majority of voters (58%) plan to vote in favor of the ballot measure to amend the Missouri Constitution to provide the right to reproductive freedom, while 30% plan to vote against it. Twelve percent are unsure."
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About 20% are voting *FOR* reproductive freedom AND *FOR* the guy who is against reproductive freedom. That's a lot of people trying to thread that needle. (more likely a bunch of low-info voters)
 
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TarHeelGrad said:
I think it is more along the lines of "am I happy where I am right now". If the answer is yes, vote for the same party. If not, vote for the other party, because "different has to be better".
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That could be true. But I think the "am i happy right now" is largely tied to economy (i typed economics, but meant personal feelings about economy), like questions: do I feel good about job prospects, do I feel wages are okay, can I afford things.
 
theel4life said:
Kamala wins North Carolina and it’s over early on election night.
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This isn't true. A trade of NC and PA is not favorable to her. If she wins NC but loses PA she has work to do out west. Need at least NV in that case.

I think I know what you're saying: if Kamala wins NC, it means she's having a great night and will probably win other states. That would be my instinct. But at the moment, Kamala is polling basically identically in NC and PA, and historically they haven't been terribly correlated. So winning NC and losing PA is a possibility.

I do wonder if, in our age of polarized politics, all correlations are headed towards unity. Imagine a world in which there are only two options, call them R or D. Everyone is one or the other; there's no middle ground; and people have more or less the same issues that animate them. In that world, all states would be highly correlated and states would go Pub or Dem based on the numbers and enthusiasm of the voters within.

We're not there yet, but as the GOP manages to transform elections into all-purpose referenda about something bad happening somewhere while making themselves look like idiots to reasonable people, it's getting more that way. There's no middle ground on Haitians eating pets. Either you believe it's happening, in which case you're also likely to believe that severe immigration restrictions are necessary; or you don't, in which case you (hopefully) view Trump and Vance as tools of the greatest magnitude. Either way, it doesn't depend on where you live.
 
superrific said:
This isn't true. A trade of NC and PA is not favorable to her. If she wins NC but loses PA she has work to do out west. Need at least NV in that case.

I think I know what you're saying: if Kamala wins NC, it means she's having a great night and will probably win other states. That would be my instinct. But at the moment, Kamala is polling basically identically in NC and PA, and historically they haven't been terribly correlated. So winning NC and losing PA is a possibility.
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NC and PA haven't been terribly correlated (at the POTUS election level) because NC has been a fairly reliable Pub state and PA has been a fairly reliable Dem state over the last 30+ years. The only two times that hasn't been the case are in outlier elections (2008 and 2016) when one of them went the other way by a very small margin as part of a greater groundswell in that direction.

So it would be very, very unexpected for PA to go Trump while NC went Harris in the same election as the states would both have to go against type in opposite directions.

If Harris wins NC, I'd be fairly confident that she wins the election and that she carries PA. And if Trump wins PA, I'd be fairly confident that he wins the election and carries NC.

(That said, if she carries NC I doubt we'll actually know that on election night or at least anywhere near "early" on election night.)
 
SnoopRob said:
(That said, if she carries NC I doubt we'll actually know that on election night or at least anywhere near "early" on election night.)
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Your last point is what I said last time this issue came up. Unless this is a landslide election, NC and PA will likely not be called until fairly late on election night or the next morning.
 
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