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2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
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nycfan said:
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I mean...she's only been running for 3 weeks, only had a VP for 1, and hasnt had a convention.

Also, I dont think Trump is more popular. I think more people are just open to saying they like him than they were in those 2 cycles.
 
Man, I truly do understand the need for restrained exuberance, and I truly do understand that Team Blue still has to put in the work every day between now and November and still has to GOTV, and I truly do understand that people want to be cautious and not get bitten in the ass like they did in 2016, but.....like, this election isn't even remotely comparable to 2016, in my opinion. So many pundits are acting like the Democrats don't have enormous advantages over the other team in terms of energy, enthusiasm, excitement, fundraising, grassroots volunteerism, etc. Could Trump win the election straight-up? Yeah, he could. Is it looking more and more and more likely with each passing day that he will lose? Yeah, it is. In fact, it's looking more and more and more likely with each passing day that Republicans are heading for an absolute asskicking this fall. Pundits acting otherwise are essentially telling me to disbelieve my lying eyes. Very irritating.
 
Is there any reason to think that the polling miss of 2016-2020 will be repeated? I suspect it will be the opposite: there will likely be overcorrections. If I had to guess, I would say Trump slightly underperforms his polls.
 
superrific said:
I don't think that was a polling miss. I think it was an expectations miss. IIRC the polls and the models called the race just right. It was the pundits and GOP hopiate addicts who were way off.
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Fair. This is what Nate Silver said:

“While some polling firms badly missed the mark, in the aggregate the polls had one of their most accurate cycles in recent history. As a result, FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts had a pretty good year, too. Media proclamations of a “red wave” occurred largely despite polls that showed a close race for the U.S. Senate and a close generic congressional ballot. It was the pundits who made the red wave narrative, not the data.

With that said, the polls weren’t perfect.

  • Polling averages and forecasts did slightlyunderestimate Democrats, though the differences were modest — certainly less than the extent to which they underestimated Republicans in 2016 and 2020.
  • Some pollsters — such as Trafalgar Group and Rasmussen Reports, which have a history of Republican-leaning polling — had a conspicuously poor year.
  • There are different methods of polling aggregation and forecasting. The margins in the polling averages from RealClearPolitics were on average 1.3 percentage points more favorable to Republicans in the most competitive Senate races1 than those published by FiveThirtyEight. Similarly, RCP’s generic ballot polling average was 1.3 points more favorable to the GOP than FiveThirtyEight’s. In this article, I’ll only be evaluating FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts, but methodological choices made a difference.”
 
Bigs23 said:
That’s chances of the poll timelines being the same in 20 and 24 are very small.

People just throwing stuff out there. I get it.
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yup, to be clear that wasn't my feeling, just the tone of Harry's points
 
aGDevil2k said:
I mean...she's only been running for 3 weeks, only had a VP for 1, and hasnt had a convention.

Also, I dont think Trump is more popular. I think more people are just open to saying they like him than they were in those 2 cycles.
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Trump is less popular outside his CULT34. The Double Haters are leaning toward Single Haters.
 


“…
Harris has closed the gap with Trump since the last Swing State Project survey in May, when Trump led President Joe Biden by three points overall, and was ahead or tied in every one of the seven swing states.

The one state where Trump still holds a slim lead is Nevada, though Harris has narrowed Trump’s margin by six points since May. …”
 
IMG_2391.jpeg

Their NC and NV results appear scrambled to me. But they also indicate Trump gets hit harder by including third party candidates in states where Harris has the lead (except Michigan, where there may be a dedicated anti-Democrat but also anti-Trump voting bloc?).
 
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