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This is misleading. Closing the gap does not equal chance of winning
Which, and I'm just spitballing here, is probably why the headline didn't say "Harris has chance of winning in Texas"
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This is misleading. Closing the gap does not equal chance of winning
Yeah, I probably get 2-3 political text surveys and 1-2 calls per day. When it first started, I picked up a couple of the calls because it was a local number and I was expecting some contractor calls. Since that point, I stopped picking up any unknown number. Just not interested.One thing I’m curious about when it comes to polling (and why I also to some Degree downplay polling numbers): I’ve talked to many of my friends about it, and ultimately all of them who get invited to participate in a poll and decline or ignore them are all voting blue, while my red acquaintances are more than willing and even search out the opportunity to talk a poll they are voting for Trump. How do they take this into consideration? I feel like the dem numbers, as good as they are, are probably underrepresented
Totally agree. But as I said above, closing the gap in a place like Texas may not ultimately lead to Texas going blue, but if the same trend exists in similar states like North Carolina and Georgia that are already purple and trending blue, or even Florida and Ohio, it’s really bad news for the Trump campaign and it probably means they are going to get their ass kicked.This is misleading. Closing the gap does not equal chance of winning
MUST ... NOT ... ENGAGE ... AND ... SHARE ... MY ... THOUGHTS ... ABOUT ... POLLING ....One thing I’m curious about when it comes to polling (and why I also to some Degree downplay polling numbers): I’ve talked to many of my friends about it, and ultimately all of them who get invited to participate in a poll and decline or ignore them are all voting blue, while my red acquaintances are more than willing and even search out the opportunity to talk a poll they are voting for Trump. How do they take this into consideration? I feel like the dem numbers, as good as they are, are probably underrepresented
Nothing will give me greater pleasure than for the great state of North Carolina to be the one that delivers the fatal blow to MAGA.NC Polling ahead of Georgia is kind of blowing my mind
Trump has three main problems right now.At this point, it’s getting hard to tell whether some pundits are just hopelessly pessimistic by nature, or if they are being recreationally contrarian. There is no objective way to look at the aggregate polling data, the crowd sizes at the Harris rallies, the groundswell of grassroots volunteers, the jaw dropping fundraising numbers, and the overall energy, excitement, and enthusiasm permeating through the Democratic base, and not believe that Harris is currently leading and pulling away. At this point it would take one of the most dramatic reversals fortunes that we have ever seen in modern American politics for Donald Trump to regain the edge. Sure, it’s possible. But it is becoming more and more improbable with each passing day.
I wouldn’t put much stock in that. They’re both well within the MOE.NC Polling ahead of Georgia is kind of blowing my mind
It’s not recreational, it’s a business model.At this point, it’s getting hard to tell whether some pundits are just hopelessly pessimistic by nature, or if they are being recreationally contrarian. There is no objective way to look at the aggregate polling data, the crowd sizes at the Harris rallies, the groundswell of grassroots volunteers, the jaw dropping fundraising numbers, and the overall energy, excitement, and enthusiasm permeating through the Democratic base, and not believe that Harris is currently leading and pulling away. At this point it would take one of the most dramatic reversals fortunes that we have ever seen in modern American politics for Donald Trump to regain the edge. Sure, it’s possible. But it is becoming more and more improbable with each passing day.
Yeah, I want that gig.As an aside, how did it become socially acceptable to just blather on sitting in your car? Who approved this?
I get several a day it seems as well. Some of which are addressed to me. Others are for someone else.Yeah, I probably get 2-3 political text surveys and 1-2 calls per day. When it first started, I picked up a couple of the calls because it was a local number and I was expecting some contractor calls. Since that point, I stopped picking up any unknown number. Just not interested.
Ehh I don’t think the Trump campaign is worried about Texas, and moreover aren’t going to divert dollars from swing states to Texas. Because if they need to spend resources in Texas the election outcome is a foregone conclusion so what would be the point?Totally agree. But as I said above, closing the gap in a place like Texas may not ultimately lead to Texas going blue, but if the same trend exists in similar states like North Carolina and Georgia that are already purple and trending blue, or even Florida and Ohio, it’s really bad news for the Trump campaign and it probably means they are going to get their ass kicked.
Plus, every extra dollar or appearance that the Trump campaign has to spend in a place like Texas, is one less dollar and appearance that it can spend in a state that actually matters for the electoral college outcome. And considering the Trump campaign has already spent the last two weeks campaigning in battleground states while Dementia Don hides in the basement at Mar-a-Lago, they have a ton of ground to make up in swing states and they are running out of time to do so.
I have it likely 241-219 giving Harris Michigan. Election comes down to PA, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, NC, and GA and it’s unlikely Nevada is anything more than superfluous. Trump has to win a midwest state to get it done (and sweep the others). Harris has other paths, including basically ending the election if she wins NC and GAOh, I know. Barring a major shift in momentum, I actually think the whole election is now down to Pennsylvania, but we’ll see where it goes from here. I’m hoping we got the tidal waves out of the way early.
Great points, for sure.Ehh I don’t think the Trump campaign is worried about Texas, and moreover aren’t going to divert dollars from swing states to Texas. Because if they need to spend resources in Texas the election outcome is a foregone conclusion so what would be the point?
Roe changed everything.And it is "funny " that Biden and Harris have pretty much identical policies (assumming here a bit )-but Harris is worth maybe 30 more EC votes.I mean I get it......
Sir, you definitely should not play defense in Florida, sir, you already have the bigliest lead ever in Florida, sir, there's no way you could lose Florida, sir, many people are saying it, you're hearing it more and more!