2024 Political Polls

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Rock said:
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To be honest, I'm not at all sure that any supposedly "undecided" groups are truly undecided. Trump has been around for so long that a voter would pretty much have to be living in a cave without internet or other sources of information since 2016 not to have a strong opinion on the guy one way or another. And we know that the TV news networks have already been fooled by some "focus groups" that are supposedly undecided, like the group of "undecided" suburban mothers (in 2016, I believe) that CNN featured multiple times who turned out to all be active members of a local Republican women for Trump organization.
 
lawtig02 said:
This doesn’t bother me at all. Rasmussen only gives access to its cross tabs to subscribers, but their methodology has lost credibility recently. But polls like this pull the average down, which means the real numbers are probably a little better for Kamala than the averages. I’d much rather have an error in that direction than the other.
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Yeah they went all in on the bias several years ago. It was always right leaning and then they took off the Scooby mask and revealed Bannon underneath
 
CallMeTyler said:
It’s the content of the tweet. You don’t need me to point that out to you.
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Yeah, I get that using "snot" in a tweet suggests a certain lack of professionalism. I just thought it was important to clarify that Rasmussen wasn't lying about the betting markets on top of being unprofessional.
 
Calheel said:
Yeah, I get that using "snot" in a tweet suggests a certain lack of professionalism. I just thought it was important to clarify that Rasmussen wasn't lying about the betting markets on top of being unprofessional.
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Nobody should care about Rasmussen polls as their credibility has long since been dismissed. 538 no longer includes them in the aggregate because of their unwillingness to maintain strict standards in methodology and objectivity.

Feel free to read for yourself: https://archive.ph/BNR01
 
CallMeTyler said:
Nobody should care about Rasmussen polls as their credibility has long since been dismissed. 538 no longer includes them in the aggregate because of their unwillingness to maintain strict standards in methodology and objectivity.

Feel free to read for yourself: https://archive.ph/BNR01
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Oh I know. Rasmussen used to be a slight R in the 90s/00s, and then decided there was more money in the skewed poll business. Not defending their polling. Just pointing out that NYC posted a month old tweet.
 
Pollster ratings:

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Pollster Ratings

FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy and methodology of each firm’s polls.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com projects.fivethirtyeight.com
 


Harris up 2 in N.C. but down 4 in Georgia doesn’t quite feel right … but maybe the indictment in Georgia is somehow helping Trump there?
 
nycfan said:


Harris up 2 in N.C. but down 4 in Georgia doesn’t quite feel right … but maybe the indictment in Georgia is somehow helping Trump there?
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Up in NC, but down in Nevada is even more strange, especially when you consider the Senate race numbers in NV.
 
The thing Nevada and Georgia have in common is a massive, multi cultural metro area that is completely unlike the rest of the state.

I wonder if that makes them harder to poll well.
 
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