2024 Political Polls

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Should make Republicans awfully nervous… What new poll numbers signal for Trump…
New polling from The New York Times and Siena College show Kamala Harris making significant gains in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, important swing states that seemed to be under Trump’s grip just a few weeks ago.

But screw a bunch of polls. The only one that matters is the polling place we show up at to vote.
 
Let’s see what other polls say but the main takeaway right now is that Kamala appears to be winning the battle to define herself. Trump is fighting desperately to paint her as a stupid, lazy commie, but most voters aren’t buying it. A strong performance at the DNC this week and Trump’s window may be almost closed.
 
nycfan said:
+3 with entire field

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"Trump's evolving strategy against Harris." LOL. It's abundantly clear, based on his speeches like last night in PA, that neither Trump nor his campaign staff have developed any kind of effective or coherent strategy to attack Harris, at least not yet. Right now they're just throwing stuff against the social media wall to see if any of it sticks. Just today one of Trump's campaign officials tweeted out that "rumors" and "gossip" have it that Harris has a drinking problem. It's absurd, but they're just throwing crap out there to see if any of it works. There is no "evolving" strategy - Trump is likely incapable of anything that organized, and as usual he doesn't seem to be listening to his staff - he apparently got mad when he heard that some of his top campaign officials were meeting with some reporters, so he threw his weird press conference at Mar-a-Lago a couple of days ago to steal the spotlight.
 
CFordUNC said:
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I tortured myself this morning by watching some Fox News just to see what they were talking about and the overall narrative is that Harris is slipping in the polls and Trump is really ahead in the race. Basically saying that the public has now seen enough of Harris and are running back to Trump.
 
lawtig02 said:
Let’s see what other polls say but the main takeaway right now is that Kamala appears to be winning the battle to define herself. Trump is fighting desperately to paint her as a stupid, lazy commie, but most voters aren’t buying it. A strong performance at the DNC this week and Trump’s window may be almost closed.
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I definitely agree that Trump (and the GOP generally) has had a far more difficult time defining Harris or Walz than they did with Hillary or even Biden, but, assuming that the DNC goes well, I think his last chance to maybe turn things around will be his first debate with Harris. Both that debate and the vice presidential debate will likely be their last chances to regain some momentum. If Harris or Walz has a poor performance then both right-wing media like Fox and Trump's campaign will be all over it. But if they both do well then it's hard to see another major event (barring an "October surprise" scenario, which I don't think is going to happen this year) that could inject some life into what has been a surprisingly lifeless Trump/Vance campaign thus far.
 
Mulberry Heel said:
I definitely agree that Trump (and the GOP generally) has had a far more difficult time defining Harris or Walz than they did with Hillary or even Biden, but, assuming that the DNC goes well, I think his last chance to maybe turn things around will be his first debate with Harris. Both that debate and the vice presidential debate will likely be their last chances to regain some momentum. If Harris or Walz has a poor performance then both right-wing media like Fox and Trump's campaign will be all over it. But if they both do well then it's hard to see another major event (barring an "October surprise" scenario, which I don't think is going to happen this year) that could inject some life into what has been a surprisingly lifeless Trump/Vance campaign thus far.
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No way Trump and Vance do better in the debates than Harris and Walz. Harris being a woman of color dominating Trump is going to bring out the worst of him in the debates.
 
Mulberry Heel said:
I definitely agree that Trump (and the GOP generally) has had a far more difficult time defining Harris or Walz than they did with Hillary or even Biden, but, assuming that the DNC goes well, I think his last chance to maybe turn things around will be his first debate with Harris. Both that debate and the vice presidential debate will likely be their last chances to regain some momentum. If Harris or Walz has a poor performance then both right-wing media like Fox and Trump's campaign will be all over it. But if they both do well then it's hard to see another major event (barring an "October surprise" scenario, which I don't think is going to happen this year) that could inject some life into what has been a surprisingly lifeless Trump/Vance campaign thus far.
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Agree, but that’s why it’s so freaking stupid to be setting the bar so low. Harris is not stupid. Anyone who has seen her speak in the last 20 years knows that. I find it extraordinarily unlikely she’ll come across as stupid at the debate. So why in the everloving hell is Trump going on and on at every rally and press conference about how stupid she is? Unlike Biden, Harris doesn’t have to clear the “is she still capable bar.” She just has to clear the “is she ready” bar. But that’s not at all what Trump and his campaign have been talking about.
 
Centerpiece said:
Should make Republicans awfully nervous… What new poll numbers signal for Trump…
New polling from The New York Times and Siena College show Kamala Harris making significant gains in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, important swing states that seemed to be under Trump’s grip just a few weeks ago.

But screw a bunch of polls. The only one that matters is the polling place we show up at to vote.
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The downballot leads by Dems in Sun Belt states should scare the GQP twice as much.
 
StoneColdHeel said:
No way Trump and Vance do better in the debates than Harris and Walz. Harris being a woman of color dominating Trump is going to bring out the worst of him in the debates.
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I think unfortunately, that who really does better in debates is much less important these days than who outperforms their expectations (largely by the media sphere). I mean, in the first debate Trump was hot garbage, but he's rarely ever made any actual rhetorical sense and so there are no expectations for him to do so in any debate or public forum. It's incredibly frustrating, but the media basically sets the bar for Trump in a place where he'd have to literally piss his pants mid-debate in order to get the kind of negative attention that Biden got after the first debate (not so different from how the bar was laid on the floor for Bush during debates). The only source of optimism I have for this years debates is that the Harris-Walz team has already shown that they're savvy to how the meme-like messaging is more important than winning some sort of high school debate contest. I would hope they will use the debates to hammer home how weird and creepy Trump and Vance are.
 
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