2024 Political Polls

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I’ve seen several pro-Harris ads by a Super-PAC during the Olympic coverage. I’m watching streaming though, so not sure if local or national or what.
 
lawtig02 said:
Kamala has really expanded the map.
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Yep. I said earlier today on another thread, simply making the Trump campaign spend time, treasure, energy, and resources in places like North Carolina, Ohio, Georgia, and even Florida would be a big boon for the Harris campaign. Putting Trump on the defensive in any or all of these places is problematic for his campaign.

Pretty funny that just two weeks ago Republicans were openly musing about flipping freaking Virginia and Minnesota. My how the turntables!
 


I think it is impossible to overstate just how freaking good at campaigning the people running the Harris campaign are. It feels like we are living in a completely different lifetime, or hell a completely different universe, than we were two weeks ago.
 
CFordUNC said:
In a perfect world, the Trump campaign now has to expend a lot of money, time, energy, and resources that it wasn't planning on having to spend in places like North Carolina, Georgia, and even Ohio and Florida, any of which potentially flipping would make for an easy and early election night.
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They were planning to spend in Jersey and Minnesota, so I'm not sure it requires a change of strategy per se.
 
uncjhodges said:
plus 12 in michigan does not compute with a trump lead in wisconsin and PA imo.
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Of course it doesn't. But that's what happens with margins or error. A 4.5 MOE means that the true state of affairs in Wisconsin could be Harris +3.5, and in Michigan it would be Harris +7.5. That's not outlandish.

1. As mentioned, Michigan is less white than Wisconsin. There are more black people, and I would imagine that the Arab population, having got their scalp, will now recognize that Trump is a mortal danger to the Palestinian cause.

2. Unions have gotten historic wins in Michigan recently. The state legislature repealed the right to work law. The UAW had a huge win in its strike. Organized labor is more popular than it has been in a long while. Unions are especially big in Michigan. Lots of Michigan folks might be wanting to preserve what they have won in the last four years.

3. Business investment in Michigan has been booming because of the CHIPS Act. Unfortunately, there has been a group of reactionaries, fully supported by the GOP, who have been trying to stop that investment because China yada yada yada. Anyone who wants investment in jobs of the future knows which side they have to support. That would be true in WI as well, but I think the CHIPS Act has been less impactful there so the issue is maybe not as alive as it was.

4. The Michigan GOP is absolutely and utterly dysfunctional. I can't remember a party that disorganized. Whole articles have been written about their travails, and I won't try to recap. I'll just say that they ran an absolute nobody against Whitmer in 22 because the FIVE leading candidates for the nomination were disqualified from the primary for cheating on signature gathering.
 
Am I a misremembering or did someone post an article as to why betting markets aren't a good indicator on here? In a group text of ours, a friend who is conservative likes to throw the betting market numbers at us and the disparity I see on polymarket is interesting.
 
Rock said:
Am I a misremembering or did someone post an article as to why betting markets aren't a good indicator on here? In a group text of ours, a friend who is conservative likes to throw the betting market numbers at us and the disparity I see on polymarket is interesting.
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Betting markets don't have nearly enough liquidity to be provide information.

Functionally, the electoral odds are the same thing as the "price discovery" that stock markets do. The U.S equity markets have a capitalization of $50T and on any given day, something like 60-80B can be traded.

Polymarket has a total capitalization of 400M. Less than .001%.
 
emersoncollegepolling.com

New Hampshire 2024 Poll: Harris 50%, Trump 46% - Emerson Polling

Craig, Ayotte Lead Respective Gubernatorial Primaries A new Emerson College Polling/WHDH survey of New Hampshire…Full Release & Results
emersoncollegepolling.com emersoncollegepolling.com

A new Emerson College Polling/WHDH survey of New Hampshire voters finds 50% of voters support Vice President Kamala Harris and 46% support former president Donald Trump. Four percent of voters are undecided. When undecided voters are asked which candidate they lean toward, Harris’ total support increases to 52% and Trump 48%.

With third party candidates on the ballot, Harris leads Trump 48% to 41%; 6% support Robert Kennedy Jr., 1% support Jill Stein.
 
If she wins Michigan and Pennsylvania (I think she picks Shapiro fwiw) then she likely just needs one of:
Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, North Carolina
 
aGDevil2k said:
If she wins Michigan and Pennsylvania (I think she picks Shapiro fwiw) then she likely just needs one of:
Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, North Carolina
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Yeah Pennsylvania AND Michigan make the path pretty likely for a Harris win. Aside from Shapiro being popular in PA, he doesn’t bring the Union baggage Kelly does. Picking Shapiro along with the UAW endorsement this week makes Michigan more likely as well.

Not that I have anything against Shapiro, or that I’d be disappointed in the pick…strategically it’s starting to make a lot of sense.
 
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