2024 Political Polls

[aGDevil2k]

He thought Dems were going to take the House. That is like going over on the final showdown on Price is Right.

Nate was basically at 227 Republicans, give or take 8-9 either way. But he was at 84% that Republicans would hold on to the House. He was more right than Bouzy.

Bouzy is the Democratic equivalent of Rasmussen.

I 100% agree Bouzy is way in the blue clouds. But man Nate was all red waving. There's a reason he got booted from his own damn company, and he's struggling big time to maintain credibility. But there are 222 GOP house members - Bouzy was off 3. Nate was off 4, but as always he gives this massive hedge with stat range.

 

[aGDevil2k]

Especially the youth male. Especially the youth male gamer vote. Which is not a good demo for Harris.

According to....?

 

[UNCMSinLS]

Isn’t Bouzy like the king of Hopium?

ETA: yeah rolling Florida to blue … no.

I do NOT see Florida as a dark blue call. But, I think there's a chance for a tossup/slightly lean blue if momentum continues. Same deal with Texas. Rick Scott and Ted Cruz better start sweating.

 

[UNCMSinLS]

Yup. And as I’ve pointed out before, I don’t see Cannabis as helping the democrats the way it might have in the 90s or 00s.

There is a huge MAGA overlap with weed. Having that issue on the ballot in Fla may actually help Trump. It is not remotely like the abortion issue.

Abortion was, is, and will continue to be THE issue driving elections. Dems finally have a communicator to drive that issue home in Harris.

 

[Calheel]

I 100% agree Bouzy is way in the blue clouds. But man Nate was all red waving. There's a reason he got booted from his own damn company, and he's struggling big time to maintain credibility.

Nate was not big time red waving. Go read 538 archives from 2022

2022 House Forecast

Latest forecasts and polls for the 2022 House elections from ABC News’s FiveThirtyEight

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

2022 Senate Election Forecast

Latest forecasts and polls for the 2022 Senate elections from ABC News’s FiveThirtyEight

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

He thought the senate would go 50.8/49.2 to Republicans. It ended 50/50.
He thought House would be roughly 227/208, with a significant standard deviation in both directions. It ended 222/213.

Disney let Nate go in 2023 as part of a huge cost cutting process across all of its media divisions in 2023. I've seen no evidence that the move had anything to do with political prognostication ability or political views.

 

[Calheel]

Abortion was, is, and will continue to be THE issue driving elections. Dems finally have a communicator to drive that issue home in Harris.

I agree with that, although I think it remains to be determined whether an abortion prop on the ballot makes a material outcome in the presidential results vs. no prop on the ballot. Intuition says it should make a difference but I don't think we've seen any hard science on that one way or the other.

But I am confident that cannabis props will not be a helpful issue for Harris. I see those props as best a neutral issue.

 

[Bigs23]

Especially the youth male. Especially the youth male gamer vote. Which is not a good demo for Harris.

My son and his friends are in this group and they are all libs.

 

[Calheel]

My son and his friends are in this group and they are all libs.

There are plenty of young, male, weed-smoking gamers that support Harris.

Unfortunately, there are also plenty of young, male, weed-smoking gamers that support Trump.

The amount of misogyny in gamer culture is off the charts. Fortunately, these individuals are largely low-propensity voters. Unfortunately, a cannabis proposition is one of the things that could get them off their mothers' couches and into the voting booth for Trump.

 

[UNCMSinLS]

I agree with that, although I think it remains to be determined whether an abortion prop on the ballot makes a material outcome in the presidential results vs. no prop on the ballot. Intuition says it should make a difference but I don't think we've seen any hard science on that one way or the other.

But I am confident that cannabis props will not be a helpful issue for Harris. I see those props as best a neutral issue.

I see abortion referendums as HUGELY beneficial to Democrats. Republicans are solely responsible for the bans and voters know that. There's really no middle ground.

I agree with you on cannabis. I think it's a politically neutral issue. Most people don't feel that strongly about the issue one way or the other. Judging from my personal observations, many seem to think weed is already legal.

 

[Calheel]

According to....?

Many Gen Z Men Feel Left Behind. Some See Trump as an Answer.

Men under 30 are much more likely to support Donald Trump than women their age. It’s a far bigger gender gap than in older generations.

www.nytimes.com

https://thehill.com/opinion/4845492-gen-z-voter-polarization/

Also, cannabis has a class correlation now. The odds of someone using cannabis increase significantly if that person is not college educated, and also increase if someone is male. Cannabis Use Greatest Among Lower-Income and Less Educated.

And I am sure you are aware that Trump has much greater support with non-college educated voters.

In short, getting cannabis users out to the polls is not an especially helpful political issue for democrats these days.

 

[UNCMSinLS]

There are plenty of young, male, weed-smoking gamers that support Harris.

Unfortunately, there are also plenty of young, male, weed-smoking gamers that support Trump.

The amount of misogyny in gamer culture is off the charts. Fortunately, these individuals are largely low-propensity voters. Unfortunately, a cannabis proposition is one of the things that could get them off their mothers' couches and into the voting booth for Trump.

How does mom feel about her couch smelling like a skunk? Might that drive her to the polls?

 

[Calheel]

How does mom feel about her couch smelling like a skunk? Might that drive her to the polls?

Mom's given up. She has her own wine and Xanax issues to worry about.

 

[WaynetheDrain]

Bouzy remains very optimistic.. Said in his pod today that the ground game differences are insane and the weed vote in Florida could be huge

Christopher Bouzy on Spoutible

In case you missed it, here is my latest map.

spoutible.com

Optimistic is an understatement.

 

[Calheel]

I see abortion referendums as HUGELY beneficial to Democrats. Republicans are solely responsible for the bans and voters know that. There's really no middle ground.

I agree with you on cannabis. I think it's a politically neutral issue. Most people don't feel that strongly about the issue one way or the other. Judging from my personal observations, many seem to think weed is already legal.

But voters will know that whether abortion is on the ballot or not. The political science question to me is whether propositions will drive pro-choice turnout more than non-proposition states. As I said above, the intuitive answer is yes. But whether turnout is actually higher in the key demos in November in those states remains to be seen.

 

[Bigs23]

There are plenty of young, male, weed-smoking gamers that support Harris.

Unfortunately, there are also plenty of young, male, weed-smoking gamers that support Trump.

The amount of misogyny in gamer culture is off the charts. Fortunately, these individuals are largely low-propensity voters. Unfortunately, a cannabis proposition is one of the things that could get them off their mothers' couches and into the voting booth for Trump.

I don’t think it’s a game changer.

 

[aGDevil2k]

A college friend of mine works for the campaign (has basically been with Harris since 2018). She said they do think Florida is very possible this year from internal polling. They just think their $$ is better spent elsewhere, because it likely wouldn't be the tipping point State and $$ goes further in other states

Smart.

 

[aGDevil2k]

So I like Bouzy because he goes off things beyond polls and mainly because I like Spoutible and wish Twitter would die...

But I did just see he had Iowa and Ohio grey. LMFAO. he said in the pod that he doesn't think they go blue but still. Ohio? And I forgot about Iowa completely

 

[Calheel]

A college friend of mine works for the campaign (has basically been with Harris since 2018). She said they do think Florida is very possible this year from internal polling. They just think their $$ is better spent elsewhere, because it likely wouldn't be the tipping point State and $$ goes further in other states

Smart.

Yup. Kinda the opposite of Hillary focusing so much time on AZ in 2016 over Wisc and Mich. Hillary was right that AZ was about to flip. But she was wrong in assuming Wisc and Mi and PA were locked up.

 

[UNCMSinLS]

The political science question to me is whether propositions will drive pro-choice turnout more than non-proposition states. As I said above, the intuitive answer is yes.

Trust your intuition, my friend. The answer IS "Yes".

Anecdotally, I've seen plenty of previously non-voting women who are now saying, "Give me the damn ballot!".

 

[UNCMSinLS]

Yup. Kinda the opposite of Hillary focusing so much time on AZ in 2016 over Wisc and Mich. Hillary was right that AZ was about to flip. But she was wrong in assuming Wisc and Mi and PA were locked up.

Of course, Comey's timing played an itty bitty tiny role in that reversal of fortune as well.