aGDevil2k
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According to....?
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2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden
- Thread starter nycfan
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I do NOT see Florida as a dark blue call. But, I think there's a chance for a tossup/slightly lean blue if momentum continues. Same deal with Texas. Rick Scott and Ted Cruz better start sweating.
Abortion was, is, and will continue to be THE issue driving elections. Dems finally have a communicator to drive that issue home in Harris.
Nate was not big time red waving. Go read 538 archives from 2022
2022 House Forecast
Latest forecasts and polls for the 2022 House elections from ABC News’s FiveThirtyEight
2022 Senate Election Forecast
Latest forecasts and polls for the 2022 Senate elections from ABC News’s FiveThirtyEight
He thought the senate would go 50.8/49.2 to Republicans. It ended 50/50.
He thought House would be roughly 227/208, with a significant standard deviation in both directions. It ended 222/213.
Disney let Nate go in 2023 as part of a huge cost cutting process across all of its media divisions in 2023. I've seen no evidence that the move had anything to do with political prognostication ability or political views.
I agree with that, although I think it remains to be determined whether an abortion prop on the ballot makes a material outcome in the presidential results vs. no prop on the ballot. Intuition says it should make a difference but I don't think we've seen any hard science on that one way or the other.
But I am confident that cannabis props will not be a helpful issue for Harris. I see those props as best a neutral issue.
Bigs23
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My son and his friends are in this group and they are all libs.
There are plenty of young, male, weed-smoking gamers that support Harris.
Unfortunately, there are also plenty of young, male, weed-smoking gamers that support Trump.
The amount of misogyny in gamer culture is off the charts. Fortunately, these individuals are largely low-propensity voters. Unfortunately, a cannabis proposition is one of the things that could get them off their mothers' couches and into the voting booth for Trump.
I see abortion referendums as HUGELY beneficial to Democrats. Republicans are solely responsible for the bans and voters know that. There's really no middle ground.
I agree with you on cannabis. I think it's a politically neutral issue. Most people don't feel that strongly about the issue one way or the other. Judging from my personal observations, many seem to think weed is already legal.
Many Gen Z Men Feel Left Behind. Some See Trump as an Answer.
Men under 30 are much more likely to support Donald Trump than women their age. It’s a far bigger gender gap than in older generations.
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thehill.com
Also, cannabis has a class correlation now. The odds of someone using cannabis increase significantly if that person is not college educated, and also increase if someone is male. Cannabis Use Greatest Among Lower-Income and Less Educated.
And I am sure you are aware that Trump has much greater support with non-college educated voters.
In short, getting cannabis users out to the polls is not an especially helpful political issue for democrats these days.
How does mom feel about her couch smelling like a skunk? Might that drive her to the polls?
Mom's given up. She has her own wine and Xanax issues to worry about.
WaynetheDrain
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Optimistic is an understatement.Bouzy remains very optimistic.. Said in his pod today that the ground game differences are insane and the weed vote in Florida could be huge
But voters will know that whether abortion is on the ballot or not. The political science question to me is whether propositions will drive pro-choice turnout more than non-proposition states. As I said above, the intuitive answer is yes. But whether turnout is actually higher in the key demos in November in those states remains to be seen.
Bigs23
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I don’t think it’s a game changer.
aGDevil2k
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A college friend of mine works for the campaign (has basically been with Harris since 2018). She said they do think Florida is very possible this year from internal polling. They just think their $$ is better spent elsewhere, because it likely wouldn't be the tipping point State and $$ goes further in other states
Smart.
Smart.
aGDevil2k
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So I like Bouzy because he goes off things beyond polls and mainly because I like Spoutible and wish Twitter would die...
But I did just see he had Iowa and Ohio grey. LMFAO. he said in the pod that he doesn't think they go blue but still. Ohio? And I forgot about Iowa completely
But I did just see he had Iowa and Ohio grey. LMFAO. he said in the pod that he doesn't think they go blue but still. Ohio? And I forgot about Iowa completely
Yup. Kinda the opposite of Hillary focusing so much time on AZ in 2016 over Wisc and Mich. Hillary was right that AZ was about to flip. But she was wrong in assuming Wisc and Mi and PA were locked up.
Trust your intuition, my friend. The answer IS "Yes".
Anecdotally, I've seen plenty of previously non-voting women who are now saying, "Give me the damn ballot!".
Of course, Comey's timing played an itty bitty tiny role in that reversal of fortune as well.
Relying on what people around you are saying and doing is what gave us Stop the Steal and January 6th. It is not a very scientific method to predict what will actually happen in the voting booths on November 5th.
I'll check back in on November 6th after the exit poll data is posted from prop states and non-prop states and we can revisit the question. Until then, TBD.