2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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Bigs23 said:
My son and his friends are in this group and they are all libs.
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There are plenty of young, male, weed-smoking gamers that support Harris.

Unfortunately, there are also plenty of young, male, weed-smoking gamers that support Trump.

The amount of misogyny in gamer culture is off the charts. Fortunately, these individuals are largely low-propensity voters. Unfortunately, a cannabis proposition is one of the things that could get them off their mothers' couches and into the voting booth for Trump.
 
Calheel said:
I agree with that, although I think it remains to be determined whether an abortion prop on the ballot makes a material outcome in the presidential results vs. no prop on the ballot. Intuition says it should make a difference but I don't think we've seen any hard science on that one way or the other.

But I am confident that cannabis props will not be a helpful issue for Harris. I see those props as best a neutral issue.
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I see abortion referendums as HUGELY beneficial to Democrats. Republicans are solely responsible for the bans and voters know that. There's really no middle ground.

I agree with you on cannabis. I think it's a politically neutral issue. Most people don't feel that strongly about the issue one way or the other. Judging from my personal observations, many seem to think weed is already legal.
 
aGDevil2k said:
According to....?
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www.nytimes.com

Many Gen Z Men Feel Left Behind. Some See Trump as an Answer.

Men under 30 are much more likely to support Donald Trump than women their age. It’s a far bigger gender gap than in older generations.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com

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thehill.com

Also, cannabis has a class correlation now. The odds of someone using cannabis increase significantly if that person is not college educated, and also increase if someone is male. Cannabis Use Greatest Among Lower-Income and Less Educated.

And I am sure you are aware that Trump has much greater support with non-college educated voters.

In short, getting cannabis users out to the polls is not an especially helpful political issue for democrats these days.
 
Calheel said:
There are plenty of young, male, weed-smoking gamers that support Harris.

Unfortunately, there are also plenty of young, male, weed-smoking gamers that support Trump.

The amount of misogyny in gamer culture is off the charts. Fortunately, these individuals are largely low-propensity voters. Unfortunately, a cannabis proposition is one of the things that could get them off their mothers' couches and into the voting booth for Trump.
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How does mom feel about her couch smelling like a skunk? Might that drive her to the polls?
 
UNCMSinLS said:
I see abortion referendums as HUGELY beneficial to Democrats. Republicans are solely responsible for the bans and voters know that. There's really no middle ground.

I agree with you on cannabis. I think it's a politically neutral issue. Most people don't feel that strongly about the issue one way or the other. Judging from my personal observations, many seem to think weed is already legal.
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But voters will know that whether abortion is on the ballot or not. The political science question to me is whether propositions will drive pro-choice turnout more than non-proposition states. As I said above, the intuitive answer is yes. But whether turnout is actually higher in the key demos in November in those states remains to be seen.
 
Calheel said:
There are plenty of young, male, weed-smoking gamers that support Harris.

Unfortunately, there are also plenty of young, male, weed-smoking gamers that support Trump.

The amount of misogyny in gamer culture is off the charts. Fortunately, these individuals are largely low-propensity voters. Unfortunately, a cannabis proposition is one of the things that could get them off their mothers' couches and into the voting booth for Trump.
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I don’t think it’s a game changer.
 
A college friend of mine works for the campaign (has basically been with Harris since 2018). She said they do think Florida is very possible this year from internal polling. They just think their $$ is better spent elsewhere, because it likely wouldn't be the tipping point State and $$ goes further in other states

Smart.
 
So I like Bouzy because he goes off things beyond polls and mainly because I like Spoutible and wish Twitter would die...

But I did just see he had Iowa and Ohio grey. LMFAO. he said in the pod that he doesn't think they go blue but still. Ohio? And I forgot about Iowa completely
 
aGDevil2k said:
A college friend of mine works for the campaign (has basically been with Harris since 2018). She said they do think Florida is very possible this year from internal polling. They just think their $$ is better spent elsewhere, because it likely wouldn't be the tipping point State and $$ goes further in other states

Smart.
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Yup. Kinda the opposite of Hillary focusing so much time on AZ in 2016 over Wisc and Mich. Hillary was right that AZ was about to flip. But she was wrong in assuming Wisc and Mi and PA were locked up.
 
Calheel said:
The political science question to me is whether propositions will drive pro-choice turnout more than non-proposition states. As I said above, the intuitive answer is yes.
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Trust your intuition, my friend. The answer IS "Yes".

Anecdotally, I've seen plenty of previously non-voting women who are now saying, "Give me the damn ballot!".
 
UNCMSinLS said:
Trust your intuition, my friend. The answer IS "Yes".

Anecdotally, I've seen plenty of previously non-voting women who are now saying, "Give me the damn ballot!".
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Relying on what people around you are saying and doing is what gave us Stop the Steal and January 6th. It is not a very scientific method to predict what will actually happen in the voting booths on November 5th.

I'll check back in on November 6th after the exit poll data is posted from prop states and non-prop states and we can revisit the question. Until then, TBD.
 
Calheel said:
Relying on what people around you are saying and doing is what gave us Stop the Steal and January 6th. It is not a very scientific method to predict what will actually happen in the voting booths on November 5th.

I'll check back in on November 6th after the exit poll data is posted from prop states and non-prop states and we can revisit the question. Until then, TBD.
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Я думаю, что это разумное решение, но вы, возможно, захотите придать некоторую степень доверия Бузи, он был не так уж далек, и Украина также может принять во внимание.

There are still a few months left and Harris has a good bounce going. I suspect we will see more court challenges, voter suppression, and attempted bombshells on the part of the Republicans before then.
 
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