2024 Political Polls

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UNCMSinLS said:
Trust your intuition, my friend. The answer IS "Yes".

Anecdotally, I've seen plenty of previously non-voting women who are now saying, "Give me the damn ballot!".
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Relying on what people around you are saying and doing is what gave us Stop the Steal and January 6th. It is not a very scientific method to predict what will actually happen in the voting booths on November 5th.

I'll check back in on November 6th after the exit poll data is posted from prop states and non-prop states and we can revisit the question. Until then, TBD.
 
Calheel said:
Relying on what people around you are saying and doing is what gave us Stop the Steal and January 6th. It is not a very scientific method to predict what will actually happen in the voting booths on November 5th.

I'll check back in on November 6th after the exit poll data is posted from prop states and non-prop states and we can revisit the question. Until then, TBD.
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Я думаю, что это разумное решение, но вы, возможно, захотите придать некоторую степень доверия Бузи, он был не так уж далек, и Украина также может принять во внимание.

There are still a few months left and Harris has a good bounce going. I suspect we will see more court challenges, voter suppression, and attempted bombshells on the part of the Republicans before then.
 
Calheel said:
Yup. Kinda the opposite of Hillary focusing so much time on AZ in 2016 over Wisc and Mich. Hillary was right that AZ was about to flip. But she was wrong in assuming Wisc and Mi and PA were locked up.
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Right.

The Harris Campaign needs to lock up Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. All three will likely be tight; the Islamic voters in Michigan have me worried.
 
Zoo_View said:
Right.

The Harris Campaign needs to lock up Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. All three will likely be tight; the Islamic voters in Michigan have me worried.
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Are Islamic voters really going to go with trump who would happily wipe them off the planet?

It’s an odd tact on their part, even if just a bluff. It’s honestly a bit off-putting.
 
www.publicpolicypolling.com

The Thin Line Between Big Wins for Harris and Trump - Public Policy Polling

In the last week and a half PPP has done over 30 polls both statewide and in various districts in Arizona, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Texas. That represents a pretty broad swath of the...
www.publicpolicypolling.com www.publicpolicypolling.com

"In the last week and a half PPP has done over 30 polls both statewide and in various districts in Arizona, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Texas.


That represents a pretty broad swath of the country and in the polls that included the Presidential race Kamala Harris is doing an average of one point better than Joe Biden did in the same places.


That’s great news for Democrats! If that held across the board she would win by a commanding 5 point margin in the popular vote and win the Electoral College 303-235 while just falling the slightest bit short in North Carolina.


In 2020 81% of Republicans voted in North Carolina and only 75% of Democrats did- if the excitement around Kamala Harris evens that out it’s easy to imagine a world where it narrowly flips blue too and Harris wins 319-219. A blow out!


So Democrats should feel good right? Yes…but very cautiously so. Right now Harris is running a point ahead of Biden 2020. But let’s say that instead there was a small shift in the race and instead she actually ran a point behind Biden 2020. That would flip Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin into the Trump column and give him a 272-266 Electoral College win even as Harris won the popular vote by 3 points.


Make it a 1.2 point shift in Trump’s direction and Pennsylvania goes red too for a 291-247 win.


Things are going great right now. But that’s how thin the line is. 1.4 point movement in a Democratic direction from 2020, Harris wins by 100 electoral votes. 1.2 point movement in a Republican direction from 2020, Trump wins by 44 electoral votes. That’s why it’s so important to sustain the energy and momentum from convention week for another ten weeks."
 
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