2024 Political Polls

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Calheel said:
Let’s hope the Walz over Shapiro doesn’t cost PA.

That said, Harris losing some percentage points to Biden on white men is easily offset if the Philadelphia vote (and famous suburban moms) comes out to vote at 2% higher rate than 2020.
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Yeah Pennsylvania is a weird one. I dont know why Wisconsin would be leaning more to Harris than would PA.
Silver and 538 both are more optimistic on PA than is Jake Tapper. But of course, who knows who his source is.
 
It’s odd that we put so much stock in these polls. I guess it’s because we’ve gotten nothing else to go on.

It could be these pollsters want a tight race to keep us interested in their product.

I just know I’m skeptical of them.
 
With all the talk about PA being the “tipping point” state, I wonder if it might actually be NC.

Harris has a path that doesn’t include PA if she can hold the other blue wall states + pick up NC, AZ, and NV. Don’t think she would need GA in this scenario either.
 
aGDevil2k said:
Model Links:

Silver: Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast
538: ABC News – Breaking News, Latest News and Videos
Cook: Cook Political Report | Non-Partisan Political Analysis for US Elections & Campaigns
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I pretty much ride or die with Silver. Reocgnizing what he is providing is essentially an elaborate estimation based on what the polls are telling us know. So as of now, I am .... cautiously optimistic. Which is a huge turnaround from pre-RNC when I thought the election was a fait accomplis for the Donald.

That said, given the advantages of the Republican electoral coalition, this election will be decided closely across multiple states by the voters who show up to the polls in these battleground states. Unless it is possible that this election gets even crazier...and there is yet another Black Swan type event tossed into the mix.
 
Paine said:
With all the talk about PA being the “tipping point” state, I wonder if it might actually be NC.

Harris has a path that doesn’t include PA if she can hold the other blue wall states + pick up NC, AZ, and NV. Don’t think she would need GA in this scenario either.
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Basically if she wins MI/WI she needs to win: one of AZ/NV and one of NC/GA/PA. If she wins PA though, she doesnt need one of NV/AZ.

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nycfan said:
Hard to read much into it as of now because based on the list of polls added there haven’t been any major/high quality new polls with data that includes more than the first day of the DNC.
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Yeah, I'm not reading much in the polls beyond continuing the meme that Kamala is on an upward trend and Trump is stagnating :sneaky:
 
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