2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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I pretty much ride or die with Silver. Reocgnizing what he is providing is essentially an elaborate estimation based on what the polls are telling us know. So as of now, I am .... cautiously optimistic. Which is a huge turnaround from pre-RNC when I thought the election was a fait accomplis for the Donald.

That said, given the advantages of the Republican electoral coalition, this election will be decided closely across multiple states by the voters who show up to the polls in these battleground states. Unless it is possible that this election gets even crazier...and there is yet another Black Swan type event tossed into the mix.
 
With all the talk about PA being the “tipping point” state, I wonder if it might actually be NC.

Harris has a path that doesn’t include PA if she can hold the other blue wall states + pick up NC, AZ, and NV. Don’t think she would need GA in this scenario either.

Basically if she wins MI/WI she needs to win: one of AZ/NV and one of NC/GA/PA. If she wins PA though, she doesnt need one of NV/AZ.

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Hard to read much into it as of now because based on the list of polls added there haven’t been any major/high quality new polls with data that includes more than the first day of the DNC.
Yeah, I'm not reading much in the polls beyond continuing the meme that Kamala is on an upward trend and Trump is stagnating :sneaky:
 
quick story. Had a close friend who ended up being a big dog in Brunswick county politics/law enforcement. We used to get it off the boat in Sunset Beach or Holden Beach regularly in the 90's.
I hear you. I had my “connections” in the 1970’s/80’s. Dangerous in several forms, but what it’s “cut” with - or not cut - can be an issue. Rhythm changes in the heart can develop quickly. See: Len Bias 1986
 
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