2024 Political Polls

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TarHeelGrad said:
The media loves a tight race. Sort of like in the NCAA tournament when dook is playing SE Utah State, some commentator will try to hype the chances of SE Utah State pulling off the upset. Most people don't like a blowout (UNC wins, notwithstanding). The media is simply trying to keep people interested, IMHO.
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Perhaps, but SE Utah State isn't going to wreck our democracy or go after vulnerable groups of people if they win the game. I know the media loves a tight race, but that doesn't justify the endless bosiding, downplaying of GOP threats and rhetoric and actions, or articles in the Times like "Trump Can Win on Character." The reason the media wants a tight race is to keep up ratings and website hits, and that's why they also likely want Trump to win the race - if he wins he'll be great for ratings and subscriptions and website hits. As for the damage he might cause to the country and government they don't care.
 
aGDevil2k said:
The new york times is the worst for not reading the room
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Like with CNN and others... do you think it's also the ultimate "owners" of the print, broadcast and cable media outlets - who want to get clicks, sell ads or otherwise see their bottom line, their personal taxes reduced and their stock options increase in value? This along with feeding the fire and the frenzy of a horse-race and not a blowout. (Again, to gain clicks and sell ads, of course).

But in terms of "reading the room" - I think all of those media outlets are missing the main point: If they continue to bo-side and/or continue to bump up Trump, they run the risk of setting him back up in the White House. And if the tea leaves are telling us anything at all, that means an Authoritarian Dictator - a despot, criminal, mob style leader - who will gut the free press and turn it all into his personal, state-run media. Of course there will be some in power at certain media outlets (looking at you Sinclair) who will welcome this and will have no problem in sucking trump's d*** and/or bending over and allowing trump and his sycophants to run one up their collective backsides. But other media outlets (looking at you NYT) may not cotton to that sort of thing... and those are the folks who we will find mysteriously poisoned or otherwise falling out of open windows... or maybe, simply not found or heard from again - at all.
 
Centerpiece said:
Like with CNN and others... do you think it's also the ultimate "owners" of the print, broadcast and cable media outlets - who want to get clicks, sell ads or otherwise see their bottom line, their personal taxes reduced and their stock options increase in value? This along with feeding the fire and the frenzy of a horse-race and not a blowout. (Again, to gain clicks and sell ads, of course).

But in terms of "reading the room" - I think all of those media outlets are missing the main point: If they continue to bo-side and/or continue to bump up Trump, they run the risk of setting him back up in the White House. And if the tea leaves are telling us anything at all, that means an Authoritarian Dictator - a despot, criminal, mob style leader - who will gut the free press and turn it all into his personal, state-run media. Of course there will be some in power at certain media outlets (looking at you Sinclair) who will welcome this and will have no problem in sucking trump's d*** and/or bending over and allowing trump and his sycophants to run one up their collective backsides. But other media outlets (looking at you NYT) may not cotton to that sort of thing... and those are the folks who we will find mysteriously poisoned or otherwise falling out of open windows... or maybe, simply not found or heard from again - at all.
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You have quite the flair for the dramatic. Impressive.
 
HeelYeah2012 said:
Stein is gonna crush Robinson
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Depends on what you mean by "crush." I think Stein winning more than, say, 53% of the vote would be surprising/impressive. Being a statewide candidate with an "R" beside your name pretty much guarantees you at least 45% of the vote, no matter how terrible and repulsive a candidate.
 
rodoheel said:
Depends on what you mean by "crush." I think Stein winning more than, say, 53% of the vote would be surprising/impressive. Being a statewide candidate with an "R" beside your name pretty much guarantees you at least 45% of the vote, no matter how terrible and repulsive a candidate.
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I would consider 53-47 to be crushing him. Especially if Trump carries the state as expected at the top of the ticket.

I didn’t mean to imply that it would be 60-40 in the governors race or anything like that.
 


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Note though that their data is pretty old — August 2-9. But stout in that they interviewed 1200 respondents and whittled that down to 800 in their poll results.
 
I've been saying for a while now that I think that North Carolina is going to put us all to bed early on Election Night. As crazy as it might sound to say, Trump is perhaps only the third or fourth most batfuckshit crazy candidate on the ballot in North Carolina. He would struggle to carry the state again by himself- North Carolina was the thinnest of razor thin margins for Trump in 2020- but with some of the other asylum escapees on the ballot in NC, I think Trump is going to get dragged down even further. I think that Harris is going to run up such large margins in places like the Research Triangle area, where there is an enormous voting bloc of Indian- and- Asian-Americans, that it's going to overcome the deficit she will run in the rural parts of the state.
 
CFordUNC said:
I've been saying for a while now that I think that North Carolina is going to put us all to bed early on Election Night. As crazy as it might sound to say, Trump is perhaps only the third or fourth most batfuckshit crazy candidate on the ballot in North Carolina. He would struggle to carry the state again by himself- North Carolina was the thinnest of razor thin margins for Trump in 2020- but with some of the other asylum escapees on the ballot in NC, I think Trump is going to get dragged down even further. I think that Harris is going to run up such large margins in places like the Research Triangle area, where there is an enormous voting bloc of Indian- and- Asian-Americans, that it's going to overcome the deficit she will run in the rural parts of the state.
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IMO one of two things is going to happen:

--Trump is going to win the state by turning out his (rural) base and in the process boost the relatively unpopular/crazy statewide Republican candidates to having a legitimate chance to win their elections
--The relatively unpopular/crazy statewide Republican candidates are going to be such an anchor on Trump (depressing turnout/enthusiasm) that Harris has a real chance to carry the state.

I really hope it's the latter. But IMO either is pretty clearly possible.
 
rodoheel said:
IMO one of two things is going to happen:

--Trump is going to win the state by turning out his (rural) base and in the process boost the relatively unpopular/crazy statewide Republican candidates to having a legitimate chance to win their elections
--The relatively unpopular/crazy statewide Republican candidates are going to be such an anchor on Trump (depressing turnout/enthusiasm) that Harris has a real chance to carry the state.

I really hope it's the latter. But IMO either is pretty clearly possible.
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Fully agree with you, either scenario is very much possible.
 
If Harris wins NC, we can all go to bed early.

For me, the make-or-break on Election Night will be PA. In 2016 I knew trouble was brewing when the numbers from Philly started looking like it wasn’t going to be enough.
 
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