2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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Hogan could be different if the nominee is solid.

Collins, Romney & Murkowski all voted to confirm Brown-Jackson and I’d expect Hogan to be that type of Senator.
 
Raijin23 said:
I'm with you. If the Senate would end up in a comfortable Dem majority, I'd briefly consider Hogan but even then, I'd vote against him just for the future calculus of him affecting things when it's a tighter margin.

Alsobrooks has my vote regardless but I think things will turn around the closer we get to Election Day and the true implications start to be realized by the Maryland electorate about control of the Senate, especially if it looks likely the Presidency and House will be back in Dems hands.
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Is she running ads pointing out that no matter what Hogan says, if he's elected he'll just be another GOP shill for Trump and Trumpism? Because if not she really needs to start to running those kinds of ads ASAP.
 
GoHeelsweeeehoooo said:
I remember election night 2016 pretty well - my wife and I were wearing matching Bill Clinton first dude t shirts and we went out to pick up groceries and everyone we encountered was in high spirits and initially the numbers were looking good but then as more results came in Hillary was underperforming in key states and the news just kept getting worse
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Similar story for both me and my wife. She's Ethiopian and not that familiar with the whole process, so I was explaining how a good amount of states look like the Republican is "winning" until the major population centers report in.

When the numbers started to look underwhelming in Detroit, Philly and other places, I had to confirm her pessimistic view going into the election that Trump was going to be president.

Worse that they were going to keep the House and gain the Senate, that was the cherry on top of the shit sundae for me, ugh.
 
Mulberry Heel said:
Is she running ads pointing out that no matter what Hogan says, if he's elected he'll just be another GOP shill for Trump and Trumpism? Because if not she really needs to start to running those kinds of ads ASAP.
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Hard to say, I don't have cable and pay for YouTube without advertisements. When I've seen her ads while at the gym, they've been mostly about her. But I'm sure she'll start the attack ads soon.

The only thing that worries me is Hogan does have legit bipartisan chops and his ads are effective in pointing that out.
 
The reason Hogan has been popular in a blue state is because he hasn’t been a MAGA stooge.

While I wouldn’t expect him to abandon his roots, he’d be a sure one term Senator if he went full MAGA while representing Maryland.
 
Paine said:
Alsobrooks needs to also emphasize that Hogan could decide control of the chamber if he wins in November.
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Hogan having control of the chamber would be a great thing for a lot of people in Maryland. Similar to the power Manchin held a couple years ago.
 
CharmCityTiger said:
I think the entire Hogan argument is much ado about nothing. We're a proudly reliably blue state and there is no way in a presidential election year we're going to send a Republican to the senate. Mark it down: Hogan loses this one by about 8 points.
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You're a lot more confident than I.
I know Hogan isn't really looked at as your normal republican political person, he's highly regarded as a man that has been able to reach across the aisle to accomplish so much for the state of Maryland and he has that respect from the left.
Last I saw, the race was about dead even between he and Ms. Alsobrooks. . .
8 points ? I don't think so . .
Jus' saying.
 
Calheel said:
2020 had the flips of GA and AZ. Could NC be the 2024 flip?

Every election they claim NC is in play, and every election Lucy pulls away the football. 2008 is the only election democrats have won in NC this millennium. I'm keeping NC in the "I'll believe it when I see it category."
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Yep. Usually Democrats come close in NC, but no cigar. Nevada has been the same for Republicans - they've come very close to winning several times but never seem to get over the hump.
 
superrific said:
Central Limit Theorem doesn't give a fuck about state or national. 400 voters will always have a considerable margin for error because math.
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www.surveymonkey.com

How to calculate margin of error (free calculator with examples)

Easily calculate your margin of error with our free online calculator. Find clear explanations and examples within our comprehensive guide.
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400 responses in a state with roughly 5,000,000 votes cast will have a MOE of about 5%.
ETA: Please correct me or add to my knowledge if I'm wrong here.
 
BillOfRights said:
While polling has gotten more difficult, the hardest part is modeling the electorate. This gives Harris supporters a glimmer of hope (6 minute interview):

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I’d like to see the raw numbers, rather than a percentage increase. Young black women account for a small percentage of the US population.
 
Mulberry Heel said:
Is she running ads pointing out that no matter what Hogan says, if he's elected he'll just be another GOP shill for Trump and Trumpism? Because if not she really needs to start to running those kinds of ads ASAP.
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At BEST, Hogan is Susan Collins.

Which means when the Trumplicans NEED his vote, he votes Trumplican.

When the Trumplicans don’t need his vote, they’ll let him vote liberal to boost his “moderate” credentials.

When a Brett Kavanaugh needs a vote, Hogan will toe the Susan Collins-line and vote Trumplican.
 
1moretimeagain said:
I’d like to see the raw numbers, rather than a percentage increase. Young black women account for a small percentage of the US population.
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Of course raw numbers are great and so is knowing which 13 states these numbers came from. They haven’t released that to my knowledge.

But the point should not be diminished here. Relative increases over 2020 among newly registered:

All republicans - 7.8%
Men - 17.1%
Women - 37.6%
All Dems - 51.2%
All Hispanic - 63.2%
18-29 - 73.4%
Hispanic women - 78.3%
18-29 women - 83.7%
All black - 85.8%
Black women - 98.4%
18-29 Hispanic women - 149.7%
18-29 black women - 175.8%

These are not indexes where 100 is a baseline for 2020. These are *increases* vs 2020. These numbers are staggering.

And late in the interview Bonier mentions the KS Referendum after the Dobbs leak/decision which spiked registration massively and led to a resounding pro-choice win. In ruby red KANSAS. And this is one example of several similar.

When Bonier speaks, pay attention. His data is capturing what the polls are missing.

I’m telling you, the way the reproductive rights momentum has snowballed with Kamala’s candidacy… this thing ain’t gonna be close.
 
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