2024 Political Polls

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abcnews.go.com

Harris and Trump are tied in 538's new polling averages

Introducing 538's new 2024 presidential polling averages for Kamala Harris versus Donald Trump.
abcnews.go.com abcnews.go.com

Harris and Trump are tied in 538's new polling averages​

Harris is doing noticeably better than Biden was before he dropped out.

"...
As of Friday at 10 a.m. Eastern, our average of national polls says Harris has the support of 45.0 percent of voters, while Trump garners 43.5 percent.

That 1.5-percentage-point lead is within our average's uncertainty interval, which you can think of as a sort of margin of error for our polling averages. We also have new Harris versus Trump polling averages for the key swing states of Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania, and the races there are within the uncertainty interval as well. (We will add polling averages for additional states as soon as we get enough polls in them.*) ..."
 
Not to put too much stock in polls, but I’ll take it.
But if we did look at polling as a prediction, a solid VP pick should give a bump up, then a great performance and issue free DNC later on should produce another bump. And unless there is some earth shattering October surprise, it may be team Harris has a path to victory.
 
Centerpiece said:
Not to put too much stock in polls, but I’ll take it.
But if we did look at polling as a prediction, a solid VP pick should give a bump up, then a great performance and issue free DNC later on should produce another bump. And unless there is some earth shattering October surprise, it may be team Harris has a path to victory.
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I doubt we’ll see an “issue-free” convention.

I expect anti-Israel and pro-Palestine protesters will be out in force - it won’t be a repeat of Chicago 1968. It won’t be that by a longshot.

But, it will have American flag burnings, confrontations with law enforcement, graffiti, etc. Probably each day of the convention.
 
Zoo_View said:
I doubt we’ll see an “issue-free” convention.

I expect anti-Israel and pro-Palestine protesters will be out in force - it won’t be a repeat of Chicago 1968. It won’t be that by a longshot.

But, it will have American flag burnings, confrontations with law enforcement, graffiti, etc. Probably each day of the convention.
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Well, what goes on outside, yeah… the usual suspects with the protests and such… but I was really talking about what goes on inside, on the convention floor - perhaps being issue free. Yeah protesters and what not outside should be a given.
 
Centerpiece said:
Well, what goes on outside, yeah… the usual suspects with the protests and such… but I was really talking about what goes on inside, on the convention floor - perhaps being issue free. Yeah protesters and what not outside should be a given.
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But the freaking TV cameras will be 24/7 on the "rioters " outside...........?
 
Zoo_View said:
I doubt we’ll see an “issue-free” convention.

I expect anti-Israel and pro-Palestine protesters will be out in force - it won’t be a repeat of Chicago 1968. It won’t be that by a longshot.

But, it will have American flag burnings, confrontations with law enforcement, graffiti, etc. Probably each day of the convention.
Click to expand...
I expect to see a plenty of Brooks Brothers style of protest.
 
aGDevil2k said:
If she wins Michigan and Pennsylvania (I think she picks Shapiro fwiw) then she likely just needs one of:
Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, North Carolina
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the following swing states in addition to the usual suspects will bring Kamala to 270 on the nose.
  • Michigan
  • Minnesota
  • New Mexico*
  • Pennsylvania
  • Wisconsin

*based on 538 the most recent poll for New Mexico is before Biden dropped out. Using that poll, it's within 2% - hence I'm including it as a swing state
 
mpaer said:
But the freaking TV cameras will be 24/7 on the "rioters " outside...........?
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No doubt. Fox News will probably try to convince viewers that the protestors are all Harris delegates to the DNC and that flag burning and anti-Israel chants are being included in the party platform.
 
fsclark1 said:
Trafalgar, one of the most right-leaning polls out there, has Trump leading by just 2 in Georgia.
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The Harris campaign rally in Atlanta seems to have really energized GA Democrats to a much greater extent than they were for Biden, and the black community there especially. I think she's now got a much better chance of carrying Georgia than Biden probably ever did, although it's still going to be very close either way, just like 2020.
 
Mulberry Heel said:
The Harris campaign rally in Atlanta seems to have really energized GA Democrats to a much greater extent than they were for Biden, and the black community there especially. I think she's now got a much better chance of carrying Georgia than Biden probably ever did, although it's still going to be very close either way, just like 2020.
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The Ga MAGA legislators have been working overtime the last 3 years to make sure GA can never go Blue again like 2020.
 
Kingpin said:
The Ga MAGA legislators have been working overtime the last 3 years to make sure GA can never go Blue again like 2020.
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Mulberry Heel said:
The Harris campaign rally in Atlanta seems to have really energized GA Democrats to a much greater extent than they were for Biden, and the black community there especially. I think she's now got a much better chance of carrying Georgia than Biden probably ever did, although it's still going to be very close either way, just like 2020.
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Metro-Atlanta population has increased by almost 400,000 since 2020
 
Well in 2010, Atlanta traffic would be better by 7:00

Now it's still bad at 8 when I go back to visit
 
He's Not Here said:
the following swing states in addition to the usual suspects will bring Kamala to 270 on the nose.
  • Michigan
  • Minnesota
  • New Mexico*
  • Pennsylvania
  • Wisconsin

*based on 538 the most recent poll for New Mexico is before Biden dropped out. Using that poll, it's within 2% - hence I'm including it as a swing state
Click to expand...
If New Mexico is truly a swing state then Democrats have no chance, imo. But I don't believe it's close to being a swing state - maybe Biden was struggling somewhat (although I still think he would have carried NM in the end) but with Harris I think it's back to being reliably blue. If polls are to be believed (I know, I know) then Michigan is looking really good for Harris right now too, and I think she'll get Minnesota whether she names Walz as her running mate or not. The two real swing states on that list, imo, are PA and WI. Those two really are too close to call for either candidate.
 
uncgriff said:
all about turnout, which is why the grassroots groundswell of enthusiasm is freaking Trump's camp out so much.
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Bingo. The grassroots groundswell- the jaw-dropping fundraising numbers (most of which come from first-time donors to the campaign), the eye-popping number of new volunteer sign-ups, the volume of new voter registrations of folks between 18-34- are precisely why I think that the Harris campaign has staying power and that all of this isn't just a sugar high. You can't "sugar high" this kind of enthusiasm and energy. It is very palpable, and it's very obvious that people have been waiting for almost 8 years to have this kind of opportunity to crush MAGA.
 
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