2024 Political Polls

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CFordUNC said:
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This is great news, but this is the question I still have about not just this poll, but all these polls. The article states that this was conducted via landline and cell phone. I have to believe that landline responses would lean more heavily to rural republicans. And everyone I talk to have stated that they absolutely do NOT respond to random calls on cell phones. In my head, I’m feeling like - if anything - the nature of the sample would have a tendency to OVER-EMPHASIZE potential conservative voters, which would make the reality of the situation even better than these results show.

That’s my hope anyway, and I choose to believe that. 😆
 
CLT Heel said:
This is great news, but this is the question I still have about not just this poll, but all these polls. The article states that this was conducted via landline and cell phone. I have to believe that landline responses would lean more heavily to rural republicans. And everyone I talk to have stated that they absolutely do NOT respond to random calls on cell phones. In my head, I’m feeling like - if anything - the nature of the sample would have a tendency to OVER-EMPHASIZE potential conservative voters, which would make the reality of the situation even better than these results show.

That’s my hope anyway, and I choose to believe that. 😆
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I think people who still have landlines get pounded by survey takers.

We still have one because till about 6 months ago when they put in a new tower, cell service was terrible at my house and I couldn't get AT&T to properly unlock wifi calling on my wife's phone without cancelling our grandfathered US-Canada plan that they did away with years ago. I get media survey calls and during elections, political poll calls nearly once a week.

I generally don't answer so as not to waste their and mine time because the media ones (think Nielsen rating stuff) they always have to stop on because I work in television. The political ones go no where because I can't vote in Canada. I did take one about gambling once though, and I could tell it was more of a push poll trying to drum up new gamblers for the local casino, under the guise of addiction prevention. I am exaggerating here but it was questions like "Were you aware that that the THRILL of gambling could become too much for some and there are options for getting help?"
 
CLT Heel said:
This is great news, but this is the question I still have about not just this poll, but all these polls. The article states that this was conducted via landline and cell phone. I have to believe that landline responses would lean more heavily to rural republicans. And everyone I talk to have stated that they absolutely do NOT respond to random calls on cell phones. In my head, I’m feeling like - if anything - the nature of the sample would have a tendency to OVER-EMPHASIZE potential conservative voters, which would make the reality of the situation even better than these results show.

That’s my hope anyway, and I choose to believe that. 😆
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Good polling adjusts the raw numbers to meet certain immutable respondent characteristics (age, race/ethnicity, etc) to attempt to mirror the expected electorate. So that should do some of the work around bias of who answers polling phone calls.

But the truth is that it has become very, very hard for polling firms to get good raw response data at all and polling is much, much more difficult than it used to be.
 
My concern with polling and a psycho like Trump…he’ll cherry pick the ones where he’s leading (or at least tied) then if he loses that state on Election night, they’ll be in the crosshairs of his stolen/rigged election theme.
 
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