2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

[lawtig02]

That Kennedy number contaminates the whole poll, IMO. No chance that many people actually intend to vote for him. The question is what they really intend to do. Kennedy will get less than 2%. Where the other 4% end up could make a big difference.

 

[hedge]

2016 was so depressing. I was still a resident at UVA and had my POTUS tee shirt with the O being a female symbol. Went to a brewery early on when the early returns were good for Hillary (the dreaded tweets about florida turnout being good). went to a friends house to celebrate and it just got more and more depressing.

 

[lawtig02]

PA is a must win for Harris
NC is a must win for Trump

Agree, but GA is also a must win for Trump, and he’s probably weaker there than in NC.

 

[lawtig02]

Chris Bouzy’s updated maps.

I love it, but that’s a little too much hopium for me right now.

 

[CFordUNC]

I love it, but that’s a little too much hopium for me right now.

Haha yeah same here, even for me that's too much. I'm still feeling pretty confident about either 303 or 319 EC votes, but 349+ is....surgical grade hopium.

 

[aGDevil2k]

Haha yeah same here, even for me that's too much. I'm still feeling pretty confident about either 303 or 319 EC votes, but 349+ is....surgical grade hopium.

If he ends up being right, dude should just never predict again. I mean you drop the mic and ride off into the sunset

 

[nycfan]

 

[RockyMtnHoo]

These numerous poll results, while encouraging that Harris is doing better than Biden, also cements that around 47-48% of our fellow Americans have no bottom, and no amount of conventions, interviews or debates will change that. Hillary caught hell for what she called them, but she wasn’t wrong.

 

[theel4life]

Need a bump

 

[aGDevil2k]

Need a bump

Huh?

 

[farce©]

Need a bump

Yeah, but with all the fentanyl floating around It's hard to trust it these days.

 

[maxcrowder]

"i can't feel my face, i mean i can touch it, but i can't feel it"

 

[heelinhell]

The poll that matters :

voter turnout : 70+%
voter suppression/nullification : 10%

Harris wins the popular vote by 10 million votes with 320+ electoral votes

 

[Bigs23]

Wisconsin and PA dont look very good there

There are other polls where they look much better.

 

[Igs149]

Her recent polling in PA has not been good, which is a major concern. It’s pretty much all she wrote if she loses PA.

There are many paths to victory with PA. Almost none without it. And I’m highly skeptical that GA or NC actually go blue in this election.

The campaign has to be laser focused on PA until Election Day.

 

[uncjhodges]

These numerous poll results, while encouraging that Harris is doing better than Biden, also cements that around 47-48% of our fellow Americans have no bottom, and no amount of conventions, interviews or debates will change that. Hillary caught hell for what she called them, but she wasn’t wrong.

Amazing that calling half of trump supporters deplorable led to the mainstream media fainting in disbelief and spending 4 years fellating rural people in diners but Vance can tell Harris to go to hell without a peep

 

[nycfan]

His predicted electoral votes and likelihood of winning and predicted swing state probabilities seem scrambled to me.

 

[lawtig02]

I don’t want to dismiss this just because I don’t want it to happen, but that seems highly contrary to all of the evidence we’re seeing right now.

 

[aGDevil2k]

His predicted electoral votes and likelihood of winning and predicted swing state probabilities seem scrambled to me.

How the hell does he justify that it all just flipped in 24 hours?

 

[nycfan]

Here is the explanation:

FINAL Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast

All the numbers for Trump vs. Harris.

www.natesilver.net

“Although we wouldn’t advise worrying too much about the difference between a 52/48 race one way versus a 48/52 race the other way — it’s not a big difference — this wasn’t a good day for Kamala Harris in our model, as Donald Trump is the slight favorite for the first time since August 3.

There’s one big reason for that — Pennsylvania, which is the tipping-point state more than one-third of the time and where it’s been quite a while since we’ve seen a poll showing Harris leading (including two new polls today).

The model is also applying a convention bounce adjustment to Harris’s recent numbers, who has made gains in national polls, and you could argue about whether that’s the right assumption. But the bottom line is that the model has the Electoral College/popular vote gap opening up again, a concern for Harris all along. There’s now a 17 percent chance she wins the popular vote but not the Electoral College, the model estimates.”