2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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Zoo_View said:
You actually think a “moderate” Republican anywhere won’t get primaried from the Right? The Tea Party and MAGA say even in “liberal” Maryland, he’ll get primaried.

Also, the recent history (last 20 years) of GOP “moderates” in the Senate, says they’ll be good GOP soldiers when the GOP needs their votes and “moderate” when it’s a meaningless vote.

The “moderates,” “Independent-leaning Democrats,” and “Independents” who vote for Hogan in this Senate race are fools.
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Yes, I do. The majority of Republicans in Maryland are not MAGAs, so I doubt he'll be primaried if he were to win.

Now I do believe he would go along with enough of the GOPs agenda to disqualify him for the Senate, so he won't get my vote but he's enough of his own candidate that he would not need the GOPs support to win the state, which is what makes him dangerous.
 
nycfan said:
www.yahoo.com

New Yahoo News/YouGov poll: A huge surge in Democratic optimism — but no big bounce for Harris — after the DNC

Harris (47%) and Trump (46%) remain effectively tied in a head-to-head match-up.
www.yahoo.com www.yahoo.com

New Yahoo News/YouGov poll: A huge surge in Democratic optimism — but no big bounce for Harris — after the DNC​


“… Harris (47%) leads Trump (46%) by only one point in a head-to-head matchup among registered voters — a margin that does not change (Harris 46% vs. Trump 45%) when third-party candidates are included on the hypothetical ballot.

…
The previous Yahoo News/YouGov poll — which was conducted just after the Republican National Convention but mostly before Biden ended his candidacy and endorsed Harris — found Harris and Trump tied at 46% apiece.

In other words, if Harris got a “bounce” from the DNC, it was a very small one — too small to alter the fundamentally deadlocked nature of the 2024 contest. …”
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The internals in that poll suggest a very nice bounce for Harris
 
heelinhell said:
The internals in that poll suggest a very nice bounce for Harris
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Right? There are some really rough numbers in there for Trump - showing he's capped at about 46-47% really. And that's just registered voters. I dont know if pollsters are ready for the blue side to be the enthusiastic ones.

I am confused why they lead with an enthusiasm surge, but they also do a registered voter poll. Usually by the time you get after the conventions, they shift to likely voter models.

Of course anything with Yahoolol is just weird.
 
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Trump got surges of first time voters in 2016 and a little bit in 2020.

Is it likely that polls are missing the same on the blue side right now with all of the small donations, enthusiasm gains and registrations happening??
 
I’ve got to think that Kari Lake is going to be a drag on Trump in Arizona. I suppose it could happen, but I have a hard time thinking someone would vote for Trump but also decide that Lake is a bridge too far.
 
HeelInTheOzarks said:
There’s no damn way that 14% of voters are Trump/Gallego.
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Similar results in Nevada and NC:

IMG_2579.jpeg

Seems like there are a lot of people who won’t vote for the state-level MAGA candidate but remain all-in on Trump. Pretty sure this tracks some of what HY has been telling people, though includes the Senate candidates (not just state executive offices) out West.
 
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