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2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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These numerous poll results, while encouraging that Harris is doing better than Biden, also cements that around 47-48% of our fellow Americans have no bottom, and no amount of conventions, interviews or debates will change that. Hillary caught hell for what she called them, but she wasn’t wrong.
 
Her recent polling in PA has not been good, which is a major concern. It’s pretty much all she wrote if she loses PA.

There are many paths to victory with PA. Almost none without it. And I’m highly skeptical that GA or NC actually go blue in this election.

The campaign has to be laser focused on PA until Election Day.
 
RockyMtnHoo said:
These numerous poll results, while encouraging that Harris is doing better than Biden, also cements that around 47-48% of our fellow Americans have no bottom, and no amount of conventions, interviews or debates will change that. Hillary caught hell for what she called them, but she wasn’t wrong.
Click to expand...
Amazing that calling half of trump supporters deplorable led to the mainstream media fainting in disbelief and spending 4 years fellating rural people in diners but Vance can tell Harris to go to hell without a peep
 
Here is the explanation:

www.natesilver.net

FINAL Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast

All the numbers for Trump vs. Harris.
www.natesilver.net www.natesilver.net

“Although we wouldn’t advise worrying too much about the difference between a 52/48 race one way versus a 48/52 race the other way — it’s not a big difference — this wasn’t a good day for Kamala Harris in our model, as Donald Trump is the slight favorite for the first time since August 3.

There’s one big reason for that — Pennsylvania, which is the tipping-point state more than one-third of the time and where it’s been quite a while since we’ve seen a poll showing Harris leading (including two new polls today).

The model is also applying a convention bounce adjustment to Harris’s recent numbers, who has made gains in national polls, and you could argue about whether that’s the right assumption. But the bottom line is that the model has the Electoral College/popular vote gap opening up again, a concern for Harris all along. There’s now a 17 percent chance she wins the popular vote but not the Electoral College, the model estimates.”
 
Igs149 said:
Her recent polling in PA has not been good, which is a major concern. It’s pretty much all she wrote if she loses PA.

There are many paths to victory with PA. Almost none without it. And I’m highly skeptical that GA or NC actually go blue in this election.

The campaign has to be laser focused on PA until Election Day.
Click to expand...
1. It depends on why she loses PA. If it's a state specific thing, then arguably she might be able to offset that loss with NC or GA. There's no inherent reason why she can't win either of those states. They have a bigger R partisan lean than PA, but again, if the PA thing is state-specific (i.e. fracking), then it's not game over.

2. If she wins PA, she's very likely to take MI and WI and that's pretty much all she needs.

3. And we get another idiocy of the electoral college. AZ + NV is enough to make up the loss of MI. It's not enough to make up the loss of PA. Does that make sense? I mean, I guess PA has more people than MI but it's not really about the population. It's about the arithmetic. It just so happens that the 4 EVs make a difference this go round, primarily because the Dems are winning VA instead of NC and because Utah just barely squeezed ahead of MN for the last EV.

And all of this, even though the vote margin would probably be the same in Michigan as Pennsylvania -- and proportionally bigger in MI. So it's better for Kamala to do better in PA than MI, even if she does worse in the two put together. It is so frustrating.

4. I still can't believe that there is no appetite in half the country to get rid of the EC. I get it -- ideology. But there's no reason that the GOP can't win in a non-EC world. They might need to tweak their policies a bit, and make more of an effort in CA, but it's doable. Meanwhile, the vast majority of the citizens in this country actually have no say at all about the next president, because only PA, MI, WI, NC and AZ matter (and not all of them do).

Every election boils down to four or five swing states. A constitutional amendment can pass with 38 states approving. It would undoubtedly be better for the 45 non-swing states to get rid of the EC and make their votes matter. And yet. And yet.
 
poll.qu.edu

2024 Race: Harris And Trump Neck And Neck As RFK Jr. Exits Presidential Race, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Nearly 7 In 10 Think America's Best Days Are Yet To Come | Quinnipiac University Poll

"Conventions done, debates in the planning, rhetoric getting rougher, there's a slight numerical difference, but it is essentially a tie as the presidential race roars toward November 5th," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
poll.qu.edu poll.qu.edu

“… This is the first national survey of likely voters in the 2024 presidential election race by the Quinnipiac University Poll and cannot be compared to results of earlier surveys of registered voters. …”
 
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