2024 Political Polls

[Mulberry Heel]

It blows my mind that Harris is polling weaker than a couple of weeks ago, despite nothing negative happening, fund raising through the roof, and Trump has done nothing to gain momentum in any way.

I'm not at all sure that she is polling weaker. My faith in polls is at about the same level as my faith in our news media these days.

 

[lightbluenc]

It makes sense when people had hope a few weeks ago that Harris would chart a different path forward than Biden. Since then, she has essentially said she will continue Biden’s policies (save for a more right-wing tax policy than Biden).

It’s a weird strategy considering Biden was just forced out of the race due to his unpopularity. Seems like there was a bit more to the Biden dislike than just his age.

If Biden was 65 he’d be doing just fine, still in the race and probably in the same exact position Harris is in. Which is leading the polls. His age is all that mattered.

 

[Paine]

If Biden was 65 he’d be doing just fine, still in the race and probably in the same exact position Harris is in. Which is leading the polls. His age is all that mattered.

I don’t think there’s any evidence to point towards his age being all that mattered. We’ll see for sure in November.

 

[lightbluenc]

I don’t think there’s any evidence to point towards his age being all that mattered. We’ll see for sure in November.

It was all anyone was asking for like 3 years. Anyone younger than Biden! Anyone, pick any human being younger! That’s all the media and voters asked for.

Not a single entity said, we’re fine with biden being old as fuck if he was just a little more _____.

 

[Paine]

It was all anyone was asking for like 3 years. Anyone younger than Biden! Anyone, pick any human being younger! That’s all the media and voters asked for.

Not a single entity said, we’re fine with biden being old as fuck if he was just a little more _____.

I think the age thing was a proxy issue for leadership with Biden. His approval started to slip hard around the time of the Afghanistan withdrawal. I was for this, but the way the media covered it made Biden’s admin. seem incompetent to a lot of people.

To the average voter that isn’t tuned in like we are, they also see the war in Ukraine and the Gaza conflict as failures of leadership by Biden. In their mind, a good president would prevent war in the world.

The perceived “border crisis” could also be lumped in under this same rule.

You can see that the Trump team thinks this is their best shot at defeating Harris too. By tying her to these perceived failures of leadership by Biden.

Harris isn’t doing herself any favors by telling folks she will be a continuation of Biden. Most people want a major change from Biden according to the polling.

The question becomes: who do the very narrow set of swing voters think will break most from Biden?

 

[Mundial]

And, imo, that's the problem with nearly all of them. Trump has been a boon to their ratings and book sales and so on, and they simply don't want it to stop. Of course conservatives will never believe it because anything remotely to the left of Fox News (or OAN or Newsmax) is considered liberal, but the ugly truth is our national news media has definitely appeared to move significantly to the right this year, more so than in almost any previous presidential campaign. There are damned few news sites that could be considered centrist, much less actually liberal. And for those who disagree please explain The NY Times endless bosiding, the WaPo hiring a former Murdoch employee, Sinclair media buying more and more local TV stations and forcing them to run pro-Trump segments, CNN catering to Frank Luntz and his bogus focus groups of "undecideds" and other favorable Trump stories, Katy Tur on MSBNC, and so on.

Interesting take. So you are saying the media is looking for ways to call the race closer in order to increase ratings and maintain interest?

 

[aGDevil2k]

I think the age thing was a proxy issue for leadership with Biden. His approval started to slip hard around the time of the Afghanistan withdrawal. I was for this, but the way the media covered it made Biden’s admin. seem incompetent to a lot of people.

To the average voter that isn’t tuned in like we are, they also see the war in Ukraine and the Gaza conflict as failures of leadership by Biden. In their mind, a good president would prevent war in the world.

The perceived “border crisis” could also be lumped in under this same rule.

You can see that the Trump team thinks this is their best shot at defeating Harris too. By tying her to these perceived failures of leadership by Biden.

Harris isn’t doing herself any favors by telling folks she will be a continuation of Biden. Most people want a major change from Biden according to the polling.

The question becomes: who do the very narrow set of swing voters think will break most from Biden?

When has she said that?

 

[nycfan]

 

[Paine]

When has she said that?

The issues section she posted on her website today is straight from the Biden-Harris campaign. She has carried over his campaign manager and much of the campaign staff.

You’re free to disagree, but I’ve watched almost every speech she’s given since her ascension to the nomination. She seems very hesitant to break from Biden, with the Gaza conflict being the most striking example.

There has been some behind the scenes stuff and tea leaves that she may have a different position on that particular issue, but that’s not evident to most voters.

I get that there is a weird dynamic in that Biden is technically her boss, but she must separate herself from him.

Besides a more conservative tax policy, as I said earlier, what has she proposed that would differ from another 4 years of Biden?

 

[CFordUNC]

I think that it would be very foolish from a policy standpoint for Harris to break too far from the Biden/Harris administration. The U.S. enjoyed by far the best economic recovery in the world post-pandemic; unemployment rates are at record lows; the stock market is returning record highs; wage are growing and inflation is receding; illegal border crossings are at a four-year low; rates of viollent crime are plummeting across the country to decades-lows; there has been immense investment in infrastructure, manufacturing, rural and underserved communities, etc.; consumer spending is at an all-time high; record numbers of people are traveling for vacation; our military and geopolitical alliances are stronger than they've been at any point over the last few decades; one of our primary foreign geopolitical foes has been crippled in large part by U.S. influence and aid to Ukraine.

Why in the world would Harris try to distance herself from any of that?

 

[aGDevil2k]

Wow. Those NC polls

 

[CFordUNC]

Wow. Those NC polls

 

[Zoo_View]

I answered a pollster a couple of months ago and since then my phone has blown up. I don't really recall ever getting a call from a pollster, but I'm probably misremembering. But yet and still, I am certain I've never gotten more than a few calls from pollsters ever. This year I've received dozens of calls and texts (I've answered 3 or 4 of them). Sample size of one (me), obviously, but it sure seems like if you answer a pollster, your name get put into the nationwide "we've got a live one" pool...

It’s more likely that you’re on the receiving end of a “push poll.”

 

[Paine]

I think that it would be very foolish from a policy standpoint for Harris to break too far from the Biden/Harris administration. The U.S. enjoyed by far the best economic recovery in the world post-pandemic; unemployment rates are at record lows; the stock market is returning record highs; wage are growing and inflation is receding; illegal border crossings are at a four-year low; rates of viollent crime are plummeting across the country to decades-lows; there has been immense investment in infrastructure, manufacturing, rural and underserved communities, etc.; consumer spending is at an all-time high; record numbers of people are traveling for vacation; our military and geopolitical alliances are stronger than they've been at any point over the last few decades; one of our primary foreign geopolitical foes has been crippled in large part by U.S. influence and aid to Ukraine.

Why in the world would Harris try to distance herself from any of that?

Distancing herself from him doesn’t require her to disavow everything they’ve done. The truth is, most voters don’t know or care about half the things you just mentioned. Might be sad, but it’s the truth.

If the strategy of telling people about all the stuff the Biden administration did worked, then Biden would still be in the race. Saying: “aren’t you grateful for all we’ve done for you?” isn’t a winning strategy when people are still struggling.

She must offer a vision for the future that includes easy to understand economic populist messaging. I thought she would lean much harder into the childcare, elder care, and pre-k aspects. How about lowering the age for Medicare?

So far, the economic policies she’s offered up have been a bit wonky for the average voter to easily understand and for the campaign to easily market.

 

[Mulberry Heel]

Interesting take. So you are saying the media is looking for ways to call the race closer in order to increase ratings and maintain interest?

Not an original take, but I do think the media leans more to the right this year than it has in previous years.

 

[Mulberry Heel]

If the strategy of telling people about all the stuff the Biden administration did worked, then Biden would still be in the race. Saying: “aren’t you grateful for all we’ve done for you?” isn’t a winning strategy when people are still struggling.

I doubt that. Biden left the race because he zoned out for part of the first debate and there were already calls for him to step down due to his age. The success or lack thereof of his administration had little to do with it. He was driven out because of his age and fears that he was senile or at least not up to the job, not because of the success or failure of his administration overall. If he were 65 he'd very likely still be in the race, assuming he did better in the first debate.

 

[CFordUNC]

Distancing herself from him doesn’t require her to disavow everything they’ve done. The truth is, most voters don’t know or care about half the things you just mentioned. Might be sad, but it’s the truth.

If the strategy of telling people about all the stuff the Biden administration did worked, then Biden would still be in the race. Saying: “aren’t you grateful for all we’ve done for you?” isn’t a winning strategy when people are still struggling.

She must offer a vision for the future that includes easy to understand economic populist messaging. I thought she would lean much harder into the childcare, elder care, and pre-k aspects. How about lowering the age for Medicare?

So far, the economic policies she’s offered up have been a bit wonky for the average voter to easily understand and for the campaign to easily market.

I hear you, for sure. and appreciate the perspective you're bringing to this thread. I think we probably respectfully disagree on the amount to which Biden's age and fragility was the true (almost singular, IMO) albatross weighing him down. I think that it was something like 90% of it. The messy withdrawal from Afghanistan was, IMO, the lone true blemish on his administration's resume- it's what initially tanked his approval ratings and they never subsequently recovered. Aside from Afghanistan and his age (and his stutter), there was nothing- I mean absolutely nothing- on which the right wing was able to land successful punches on him. It just so happens that they landed a perfectly-placed punch on the grievance about his age during the debate debacle. If Biden were 15 years younger, running on what has been objectively a highly successful first term from a legislative accomplishment standpoint combined with both a booming economy and the incumbency advantage, we'd probably be talking right now about him expanding his 2020 electoral map, which is exactly what Harris now has the opportunity- and I would argue, the probability- to do.

 

[Paine]

I doubt that. Biden left the race because he zoned out for part of the first debate and there were already calls for him to step down due to his age. The success or lack thereof of his administration had little to do with it. He was driven out because of his age and fears that he was senile or at least not up to the job, not because of the success or failure of his administration overall. If he were 65 he'd very likely still be in the race, assuming he did better in the first debate.

I agree he’d still be in the race. I don’t agree that he’d be winning, even barring his senile debate appearance.

 

[Paine]

I hear you, for sure. and appreciate the perspective you're bringing to this thread. I think we probably respectfully disagree on the amount to which Biden's age and fragility was the true (almost singular, IMO) albatross weighing him down. I think that it was something like 90% of it. The messy withdrawal from Afghanistan was, IMO, the lone true blemish on his administration's resume- it's what initially tanked his approval ratings and they never subsequently recovered. Aside from Afghanistan and his age (and his stutter), there was nothing- I mean absolutely nothing- on which the right wing was able to land successful punches on him. It just so happens that they landed a perfectly-placed punch on the grievance about his age during the debate debacle. If Biden were 15 years younger, running on what has been objectively a highly successful first term from a legislative accomplishment standpoint combined with both a booming economy and the incumbency advantage, we'd probably be talking right now about him expanding his 2020 electoral map, which is exactly what Harris now has the opportunity- and I would argue, the probability- to do.

Definitely just trying to bring some perspective like you said. Thanks for not jumping down my throat over it.

I’m anxious like all of y’all and just want Harris to win. I agree the Biden admin. passed impressive legislation and has done some great stuff. I especially have been pleasantly surprised by his antitrust policy and support for unions.

I worry that the voters who will swing this election don’t feel the effects of Biden’s wins enough for it to matter this year.

 

[CFordUNC]

Definitely just trying to bring some perspective like you said. Thanks for not jumping down my throat over it.

I’m anxious like all of y’all and just want Harris to win.

Oh, I know you do. That much is very obvious. Let’s do this damn thing in November!