2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

[lawtig02]

What Trump is doing, you're not seeing, because you are not in a media bubble primarily comprised of one of the following 4 constituencies (all of which represent "secret" upsides where trump can gain new voters outside of what we view as his hard upside limit:

• protestant (evangelical) Hispanics
• disaffected young black men
• disaffected bro culture young (primarily white) men
• Anti-communist hispanics (e.g. Cubans, but many others; here's where the Komrade Kamala attacks and memes are pointed)

He's got someone doing data for him that is very good at identifying these constituencies where he can eke out new votes (and I question how organic that is to his campaign, but that's a different story).

In any event modest gains in those constituencies could swing a close election. Take a moment to be scared, and then go work your ass off to save the country you love. If you've never knocked on doors before it may seem intimating, but if an introvert like me can do it, you can too.

I hear you, and I’m doing the work. But if I were to compose a list titled “Groups Most Likely To Bitch Loudly and Even Answer Pollster Calls But Not Actually Show Up At The Polls,” it would look a lot like yours, save the Cubans.

 

[ZenMode]

Why would selecting Shapiro as VP “guarantee” a win in PA but Shapiro campaigning even more frequently in PA on Harris’s behalf while not on the ticket, not guarantee it?

I don’t think you have to wonder at all if Kamala regrets her VP pick. Her selection of Tim Walz has been even more resoundingly spectacular of a success than even the most hopeful and optimistic Democratic partisan could have envisioned.

Ok, guarantee is an exaggeration, but in a state that is so close and so important, having a very popular governor on the ticket would likely make a difference. I'm acknowledging that VP selection isn't shown to have a huge impact in limited research, at least through 2008, but the political landscape is much different now than it was then.

 

[aGDevil2k]

I would imagine Nate has a silent Trump voter built in there.

But it's fair to assume poll models may have overcorrected. It's very possible. We won't know for 2 months. We DO know models arent the same as in 2020.


If those Senate races are accurate, Harris wins.

 

[aGDevil2k]

538's latest:

"Vice President Kamala Harris got a few scares in the polls over the weekend. A new national poll from The New York Times and Siena College shows Harris down two points versus Former President Donald Trump among likely voters. And surveys in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin from YouGov and CBS News found Harris and Trump within the margin of error among likely voters. These new polls confirm a slight trend towards Trump over the last two weeks, moving our forecast of the race closer to a pure toss-up.

The big thing to watch this week will be any post-debate polls from the big pollsters. I expect a quick turnaround of national polls from online panels later in the week, national live-phone polls to come out Friday and over the weekend, and state polls over the weekend and into next week. Any significant changes in the polls could impact our forecast somewhat aggressively, since we are now in the stage of the campaign where remaining volatility is declining rapidly as the time left for polls to change vanishes.

Still, it would take quite a shift to move the forecast into the 70+ percent probability range for either candidate; given recent misses in pre-election polls, our forecast factors in a relatively high probability of a correlated, large bias among most polls. Such a miss would cause averages across states to overstate support for one candidate by similar amounts (sound familiar?). If the campaign stays roughly the way it’s been for months, expect the model to see a close race through Election Day.

There is a 54-in-100 chance that Harris wins at least one state Biden didn't win in 2020
See a new scenario

538’s forecast is based on a combination of polls and campaign “fundamentals,” such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency. It’s not meant to “call” a winner, but rather to give you a sense of how likely each candidate is to win. Check out our methodology to learn exactly how we calculate these probabilities."

 

[maxcrowder]

and yet Katy Tur was pimping a poll earlier today that had Casey tied at 46 in Pa. I did a double take and mumbled "bullshit"

 

[UNCatTech]

I got a text today that appeared to be a poll. It wasn't. It was a solicitation from drump, begging for money.

I filled it out hoping to be able to submit, but you basically had to pay to submit.

Just look at the bullshit options for these questions.

 

[UNCMSinLS]

and yet Katy Tur was pimping a poll earlier today that had Casey tied at 46 in Pa. I did a double take and mumbled "bullshit"

I think Katy Tur still suffers from Stockholm Syndrome from her time on the road with the 2016 Trump campaign.

 

[maxcrowder]

I think Katy Tur still suffers from Stockholm Syndrome from her time on the road with the 2016 Trump campaign.

i think she sucks up to him hoping to write another book.

 

[UNCMSinLS]

I got a text today that appeared to be a poll. It wasn't. It was a solicitation from drump, begging for money.

I filled it out hoping to be able to submit, but you basically had to pay to submit.

Just look at the bullshit options for these questions.

Seems like your typical "fair and balanced" poll. Wonder if Nate Silver will pick it up?

 

[aGDevil2k]

I got a text today that appeared to be a poll. It wasn't. It was a solicitation from drump, begging for money.

I filled it out hoping to be able to submit, but you basically had to pay to submit.

Just look at the bullshit options for these questions.

These are polls that are getting included in aggregates these days. Reason being, if she wins, they can do the theft claim for chaos

 

[altmin]

The Gaza thread is starting feel lees depressing than this one. I may just have to put this thread on ignore before it convinces me not to vote because it is all pointless.

 

[aGDevil2k]

The Gaza thread is starting feel lees depressing than this one. I may just have to put this thread on ignore before it convinces me not to vote because it is all pointless.

@quakerdevil was right... We have to remember what Michelle said. These moments would come and we can't freak

 

[altmin]

@quakerdevil was right... We have to remember what Michelle said. These moments would come and we can't freak

True. All true.

 

[maxcrowder]

I think Katy Tur still suffers from Stockholm Syndrome from her time on the road with the 2016 Trump campaign.

I think she sucks up to him in the hopes of doing another book.

 

[Ddseddse]

The Gaza thread is starting feel lees depressing than this one. I may just have to put this thread on ignore before it convinces me not to vote because it is all pointless.

Umm… you too depressed to vote is, in fact, their endgame. How do you think Putin kept winning election after election? They want you beaten down and dispirited. Don’t give them the satisfaction.

 

[aGDevil2k]

Umm… you too depressed to vote is, in fact, their endgame. How do you think Putin kept winning election after election? They want you beaten down and dispirited. Don’t give them the satisfaction.

Well Putin didn't even count votes... they just make shit up

 

[Ddseddse]

Well Putin didn't even count votes... they just make shit up

Not to start with. It gets easier over time. That’s my point. Don’t make it easy on them.

 

[altmin]

Umm… you too depressed to vote is, in fact, their endgame. How do you think Putin kept winning election after election? They want you beaten down and dispirited. Don’t give them the satisfaction.

I will be voting, don't worry - if RFK wasn't being his asshole self I would have voted already. It is just depressing though that would should be a homerun, looks like a pop fly to the infield because of how horrible humanity is.

 

[quakerdevil]

The Gaza thread is starting feel lees depressing than this one. I may just have to put this thread on ignore before it convinces me not to vote because it is all pointless.

It is not pointless. Remember FL in 2000. 500 people can change an election.

 

[UNCMSinLS]

It is not pointless. Remember FL in 2000. 500 people can change an election.

One one-hundredth of that ... if they're wearing robes.