2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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nycfan said:


Pollercoaster is about to end folks!
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Terrible, terrible poll for Trump. If he's really down 28 in NH, he's toast. New Hampshire has a partisan lean of about D+3, I think. HRC won NH by half a point. Biden won it by 7. 17 would either be catastrophic for Trump or it would imply a huge shift in NH partisan alignment. That's not impossible, but it's unlikely.

That said, this is the same pollster who had Kamala up 21 in early October. So whatever they are doing, it's an outlier. The reality is probably more like Kamala +10, which is still good but not necessarily fatal for Trump.
 
tallheel95 said:
While nice to see, the respondents from that poll also previously voted 58% Joe Biden and 35% Donald Trump, and the actual outcome from the state was 52/45, so maybe not the most representative sample.

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You're basically weighting by recalled vote here. That's suspicious methodology for a number of reasons. First, people either forget or are dishonest about who they vote for. Second, it doesn't account for people moving. A lot of people have moved to Sun Belt states in the past four years, and they have to be coming from somewhere. If NH shed 100,000 mostly conservative folks who moved to Florida or Texax seeking freedumb, that itself could be responsible for the 58/35 split.
 
aGDevil2k said:
The holy fuck?!
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Same pollster that had KH +21 earlier in October.

There is a very good chance that the story of this election is going to be herding. There was a poll by Bullfinch where they released the straight data with no massaging (other than constructing a representative sample). It had KH +8 in Michigan.

If you step away from national and swing state polls -- i.e the ones that are most likely to herd, because they are the ones that get the most attention -- the rarely polled states are showing good news. Not just IA. KS was +5 in an RV poll from October -- Trump won it by 14 in 2020. Biden won NE-2 by 6; the polls since August have been KH +8, +12, +9, +11.

These are the states where the overt racism is likely to turn voters off. They like their racism disguised. Remember -- Iowa ran Steve King out of town eventually, and he was nowhere nearly as bad as Trump has been this cycle. There's also abortion, of course.
 
Another thing to consider about some of these Midwest states: Trump has been talking about how there are Venezuelan gangs occupying all these towns in the Midwest, how they are given a green light to shoot police, blah blah blah. The people who best know that to be a ridiculous lie with no basis in reality are the people who live in WI, IA, etc.

The caravans were the way to do it. Literally nobody in the US lives where the caravans were. You can scare people with caravans. They might believe you. But when you say they are taking over WI and people in WI can see that's plainly bullshit, it sort of blunts the message.
 
According to 538, there's been one poll of Indiana, and that was in the field O3-O28. It has Trump +16, which was exactly the 2020 margin. Of course, doing as well as 2020 isn't going to do it for him. He needs to gain at least a point, maybe a point and a half, to win any of the Blue Wall states. This Indiana data point isn't strong evidence either way, but it's another possible non-herded state poll that isn't going his way.
 
superrific said:
Another thing to consider about some of these Midwest states: Trump has been talking about how there are Venezuelan gangs occupying all these towns in the Midwest, how they are given a green light to shoot police, blah blah blah. The people who best know that to be a ridiculous lie with no basis in reality are the people who live in WI, IA, etc.

The caravans were the way to do it. Literally nobody in the US lives where the caravans were. You can scare people with caravans. They might believe you. But when you say they are taking over WI and people in WI can see that's plainly bullshit, it sort of blunts the message.
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You can say gangs are taking over Milwaukee because the small town people are like OMG Milwaukee is scary! And they don’t want to go there. But if you say every small town is being run by MS13, that’s too easily debunked.
 
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