2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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HeelingAg said:
I feel like the Occam’s explanation is embedded within machismo, paternalism, “comrade Kamala”, and “I got mine” resistance to immigrants.
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Many if not most Hispanics are Catholics.

A significant portion of recent Hispanic immigrants have come from countries like Venezuela where they despise communist/socialist regimes (or at least corrupt dictators that have claimed to install those forms of government) and Republicans have worked hard to cast Harris/Walz/Biden as communists/socialists.

The Democratic party has mostly ignored Hispanics and have done very little for them. Beyond immigration, the party has done virtually nothing for them. Republicans have done less. Trump is attempting to convince them that he will do something for the wealthy/business owners among them.
 
Mundial said:
Many if not most Hispanics are Catholics.

A significant portion of recent Hispanic immigrants have come from countries like Venezuela where they despise communist/socialist regimes (or at least corrupt dictators that have claimed to install those forms of government) and Republicans have worked hard to cast Harris/Walz/Biden as communists/socialists.

The Democratic party has mostly ignored Hispanics and have done very little for them. Beyond immigration, the party has done virtually nothing for them. Republicans have done less. Trump is attempting to convince them that he will do something for the wealthy/business owners among them.
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And yet the GOP wants to kick the Venezuelans out of the US
 
Bigs23 said:
What’s the explanation for this?

Believing the lies?
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I'm not saying the numbers are accurate but there is a shift amongst minorities toward the GOP. I tend to categorize the Democratic party as a big tent party with a lot of things in common with a few differences. The GOP is becoming a big tent party of single issue voters.

The religious right has made inroads with religious minorities. Anecdotally, my Ethiopian wife has told me of her people's dissatisfaction with Biden over trans and gay rights.

The misogynistic message works with minority men, especially the lower educated. Black and Hispanic men in particular, especially if they are current or former military or LEOs.

The lower taxes work with the wealthier and affluent minorities. Asians of all stripes fall into this category.

And a decent portion of immigrants that come from socialist countries, whether that be the more prosperous ones from Europe or the less stable ones from South America, tend to like the capitalist message. From their perspective, they left those countries for the opportunities here and have a bias against some of the Democrats messages that involve the national gov't being the primary mover on the majority of issues.

Now, are there concerns valid? Slightly, yes. But they don't care about the potential negative affects of the rest of the GQP's policies, only the actions related to their single issue.
 
Raijin23 said:
I'm not saying the numbers are accurate but there is a shift amongst minorities toward the GOP. I tend to categorize the Democratic party as a big tent party with a lot of things in common with a few differences. The GOP is becoming a big tent party of single issue voters.

The religious right has made inroads with religious minorities. Anecdotally, my Ethiopian wife has told me of her people's dissatisfaction with Biden over trans and gay rights.

The misogynistic message works with minority men, especially the lower educated. Black and Hispanic men in particular, especially if they are current or former military or LEOs.

The lower taxes work with the wealthier and affluent minorities. Asians of all stripes fall into this category.

And a decent portion of immigrants that come from socialist countries, whether that be the more prosperous ones from Europe or the less stable ones from South America, tend to like the capitalist message. From their perspective, they left those countries for the opportunities here and have a bias against some of the Democrats messages that involve the national gov't being the primary mover on the majority of issues.

Now, are there concerns valid? Slightly, yes. But they don't care about the potential negative affects of the rest of the GQP's policies, only the actions related to their single issue.
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Republicans have long had the benefit of simplicity when it comes to their messaging:

"Are you afraid of ________? Well you should be, ____ is terrifying and will destroy the country. Elect me, and I will make sure ________ doesn't happen; elect Democrats and __________ is guaranteed to happen."

The thing that's so frustrating is that they're able to get away with (1) filling in the blank with different things for different constituencies, often in a completely contradictory way, without people seeing through the BS; and (2) decades of demonstrated history that they never actually do anything to solve these problems they say they're gonna solve, because they want to keep the problems as issues they can campaign on. It's no coincidence that the election Trump lost was with him as an incumbent, because at least some people could see through the BS when he was already President and still not fixing anything.
 
altmin said:
And yet the GOP wants to kick the Venezuelans out of the US
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Agreed. These are not justifications just observations. Democrats have done a poor job of messaging and enacting programs to assist Hispanic voters (or conveying how programs that generally help Americans help the Hispanic Community). The substance and messaging is just not there.

Palestinian Americans are a bad comparison. Hispanics have been in America as long if not longer than the English and the French (in terms of their European ancestry, longer in terms of their indigenous ancestry). They have fought and served in most of America's wars. They are the largest minority group in America.

 
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Enigma94 said:
Kind of like Palestinian voters, if Latino voters help elect Trump I will not feel sorry for them when they are inevitably profiled and harassed in the effort to deport millions of people who look like them.
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If we could survive Trump and it wouldn't personally harm me, part of me wishes people that ignorantly buy into him would get their wish and suffer the consequences.

Alas we don't live in a bubble
 
uncgriff said:
Refuse to get my hopes up but Cruz losing would be a reason to open a magnum of grand cru
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Yeah, not getting my hopes up but it is becoming somewhat intriguing. But I still would be stunned if Cruz is less than +2-3, much less at risk for losing in the final tally.
 
nycfan said:
I have read that some GOP strategists believe that framing immigration around Haitians has helped with Hispanic voters, men in particular, who are just as likely as non-Hispanic whites to see black people as “other”. But that would be recent and not explain the trend that was already well underway.
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I lived in Puerto Rico for 3 years growing up. Immigrants from the Dominican would be viewed the same as Hispanics crossing the border so I wouldn’t be surprised if something similar is going on with polling, unfortunately.
 
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