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2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
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theel4life said:
Bouzy has been pretty spot on so far. He was one of the only ones who called the blue wave in 2022.
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So now, after spraying the board with caterwauling guarantees (more or less) that we're 2 weeks away from Trump being elected, you're touting Bouzy, who is basically calling for a Harris landslide. If you think Bouzy is spot-on, why are you worried? And aren't you the poster who was also literally guaranteeing Biden was going to win even after his disastrous debate performance and that it would be a disastrous move for him to step aside? If that wasn't you, disregard that last question, but if it was you all I can say is put down the crack pipe. You're all over the place, even on the same day and in the same thread...
 
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hedge said:
So now, after spraying the board with caterwauling guarantees (more or less) that we're 2 weeks away from Trump being elected, you're touting Bouzy, who is basically calling for a Harris landslide. If you think Bouzy is spot-on, why are you worried? And aren't you the poster who was also literally guaranteeing Biden was going to win even after his disastrous debate performance and that it would be a disastrous move for him to step aside? If that wasn't you, disregard that last question, but was you all I can say is put down the crack pipe. You're all over the place, even on the same day and in the same thread...
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Bro I have a strategy.
James Franco Flirt GIF
 
Paine said:
I know you had said you’re from Wilson; I had meant to ask you what part of it you were from a while ago.
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I'm a city boy, but have family in the county and also put in 'baccer every summer starting in 8th grade thru high school, so I know the county/"country" pretty well. Also, to respond to your post about the city leaning blue but not the county, that may or may not be true. Wilson County has gone for the Dem candidate in the past 4 presidential elections. I can't find any data on just the city of Wilson voting, so it's certainly possible that the city vote overrode the county vote, but who knows? But Wilson County as a whole (along with some of the surrounding counties - Edgecombe, Nash, Pitt) has been reliably Dem for several cycles now..
 
hedge said:
So now, after spraying the board with caterwauling guarantees (more or less) that we're 2 weeks away from Trump being elected, you're touting Bouzy, who is basically calling for a Harris landslide. If you think Bouzy is spot-on, why are you worried? And aren't you the poster who was also literally guaranteeing Biden was going to win even after his disastrous debate performance and that it would be a disastrous move for him to step aside? If that wasn't you, disregard that last question, but was you all I can say is put down the crack pipe. You're all over the place, even on the same day and in the same thread...
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Yes, that was him with the Biden stuff. Dude was ridin with Biden till the bitter end
 
The story about the Dems picking up some ground with non-college whites is interesting in light of their losing few points amongst blacks and other people of color. Will those cancel each other out? Or does one party come out on top?
 
hedge said:
I'm a city boy, but have family in the county and also put in 'baccer every summer starting in 8th grade thru high school, so I know the county/"country" pretty well. Also, to respond to your post about the city leaning blue but not the county, that may or may not be true. Wilson County has gone for the Dem candidate in the past 4 presidential elections. I can't find any data on just the city of Wilson voting, so it's certainly possible that the city vote overrode the county vote, but who knows? But Wilson County as a whole (along with some of the surrounding counties - Edgecombe, Nash, Pitt) has been reliably Dem for several cycles now..
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Yeah, I had that same thought after I posted it. I actually found some precinct level results for Wilson in 2020, but only for the city.

Unsurprisingly, the eastern city precincts were blue and the western ones red, more or less. Couldn’t find any precinct data for any county precints. Saratoga’s population is majority Black though, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they actually voted Biden in 2020.

Regardless, LosPollosHermanos made an assumption about me that wasn’t true. And I still think there is a smug liberal attitude about country people, Black or white, just being anti-gay and trans that isn’t necessarily true. More so just that they aren’t exposed to it as often and may not understand.
 
aGDevil2k said:
I dont belive Bouzy on Florida. And I dont believe Trump is winning it by 10 points either
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I've gotten to the point that I just don't trust polls in this election cycle, period, and I'm equally skeptical of trying to analyze early voting returns. They seem to be all over the place, especially in swing states. Trump leads in FL by double digits, Trump leads in FL by just two percent, etc. And given that in 2020 we had covid and most voters voted early, comparing this year's early voting results with 2020 may lead to some very inaccurate conclusions. So early voting in Georgia is up? Does that mean that more Democrats are voting this cycle, or is Trump's base yet again turning out in huge numbers? At this point I just wish I could avoid hearing it all until election day and see what the results actually say, if then.
 
CFordUNC said:
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1. That runs counter to my intuition. I was thinking that late breaking voters would break to Trump, because often "undecided" voters at this stage in the campaign aren't really undecided. They're just uncomfortable with their choice.

BUT

2. I don't think the math works there. It implies that Kamala was losing a month ago but has been gaining ground. That's not the story I've seen in any poll. So either there's some statistical process I'm not appreciating, this cross-tab is FOS, or people been lying to pollsters.
 
superrific said:
1. That runs counter to my intuition. I was thinking that late breaking voters would break to Trump, because often "undecided" voters at this stage in the campaign aren't really undecided. They're just uncomfortable with their choice.

BUT

2. I don't think the math works there. It implies that Kamala was losing a month ago but has been gaining ground. That's not the story I've seen in any poll. So either there's some statistical process I'm not appreciating, this cross-tab is FOS, or people been lying to pollsters.
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This is more recall. Some folks think she just joined the race a month or so ago.
 
superrific said:
1. That runs counter to my intuition. I was thinking that late breaking voters would break to Trump, because often "undecided" voters at this stage in the campaign aren't really undecided. They're just uncomfortable with their choice.

BUT

2. I don't think the math works there. It implies that Kamala was losing a month ago but has been gaining ground. That's not the story I've seen in any poll. So either there's some statistical process I'm not appreciating, this cross-tab is FOS, or people been lying to pollsters.
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I don't know. I think "undecided" voters might very well break for Harris as they hear more batshit crazy bilge coming from Trump. I can't imagine folks hearing about the size of Arnold Palmer's schlong are going to rush out to vote for Trump at the end.
 
BurtoniumAD said:
I think this is right and I also think it's fairly unlikely there will be a major mistake. I think her campaign has been incredibly smart, including not doing press with a disingenuous media, which has really only downside (even if it's minor).

I do not expect a scandal as she has been running for office forever and the vetting has already occurred (unlike JD Vance). I think she needs to hold serve on the debate, but even if she doesn't do great, I don't think it really impacts her except on the margins for people who were most likely not going to vote for her anyway.

I do think it will get darker from the Trump side for the remainder of the cycle namely because nothing they are doing is sticking on her right now. She is brushing him off and not engaging directly with anything from him, which is his only hope.

If she pummels him in the debate, I think this thing is over, because A) he will melt down for the remainder of the cycle B) Early voting will be weeks after it and C) she will continue to pick up new voters.

My take: 25% chance Trump ekes out a win; 25% chance Harris ekes out a win; 50% chance Harris wins big.

This is not 2016 or 2020 - since then, Dobbs has been overturned, January 6th has occurred and despite polling, Trump's appeal has waned considerably and if you read through the focus group info, most people are just tired of his act and he really has no other game to play. The fact that both she and Walz have positive net favorability and both Trump and Vance are very net unpopular just furthers this.
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I still stand by this months later, with maybe more a likelihood she wins big. We'll see after the election, but I think the polling is tighter than what will happen. Trump is physically and mentally crumbling, there is no GOTV infrastructure, he's running a right-wing online only campaign and he's relying on same store sales that wasn't enough the last time and has closed some of those stores since 2020 (defections to Harris, people tired of him, etc.)

I think the Trump "magic" myth is just that - he has a fervent base, but it's not enough and everything he and the campaign have done is repel non-base voters. The reasons I think this election is very, very different than 2016 & 2020 are Dobbs & Jan.6. I don't think people realize how much damage he did with a decent number of reliable Republican voters with January 6th - only MAGA is on board with that and Dobbs has really enraged and motivated women voters and younger voters. While I understand folks should not rely on the young vote, Harris's campaign is running the same playbook with them as Obama did (with Plouffe leading both) and they absolutely will be a factor in this election.

I understand the anxiety when folks see the polling, but polling is just one factor. The bad thing about 538 & Nate Silver is that it made polling seem like the only predictive metric and it's not the case. Small donor donations, GOTV and maturity of the campaign, money in the bank are also just as important. Harris is pummeling Trump on of those fronts.

I think polling will need to be treated differently going forward - there is so much different these days than traditional elections. National media doesn't matter nearly as much as it used to and my take is that polling is like that. I'm a baseball guy and I look at polling like Wins in pitching. It used to be the barometer of what made a good pitcher, but Wins were only one aspect and not necessarily predictive of the pitcher's effectiveness. WHIP, ERA, Batting Average against are equally, if not more important.

And definitely pay zero attention on the betting market as the Thiels of the world are simply throwing a ton of money in there to make it look like not only a Trump win, but a blowout. Like I said, everything in the campaign is a right-wing online only strategy.
 
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