2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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rodoheel said:
I think we should probably just let everyone process what is, by all measures, a very close election in their own way. Some people prefer to maintain an optimistic mindset and keep whispering "everything is OK" to themselves. Others are pessimistic by nature and would rather mentally prepare themselves for the worst while hoping for the best. And others are at all points in between. There are arguments for why each approach can be helpful or harmful to your mental health, but everyone's brain works differently and I think we just need to accept that it's going to be a stressful few weeks given how distressingly close we are to electing Donald Trump president AGAIN.
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rodoheel said:
I think we should probably just let everyone process what is, by all measures, a very close election in their own way. Some people prefer to maintain an optimistic mindset and keep whispering "everything is OK" to themselves. Others are pessimistic by nature and would rather mentally prepare themselves for the worst while hoping for the best. And others are at all points in between. There are arguments for why each approach can be helpful or harmful to your mental health, but everyone's brain works differently and I think we just need to accept that it's going to be a stressful few weeks given how distressingly close we are to electing Donald Trump president AGAIN.
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I hear you 100%! And I think you’re absolutely 100% correct. Still though, I think there is a difference between expressing what is completely valid and legitimate concern or even fear, versus spamming the board with maniacal pessimism. Overall, though, you’re absolutely right about showing more grace and letting folks process stressors in their own way.
 
CFordUNC said:
Man, with all due respect, for your own mental health well-being and sanity, you really should consider unplugging completely from the news and from social media for the next two weeks. I cannot imagine that kind of emotional roller coaster is healthy for you. This race has not changed in weeks. It’s a close election in which Harris is a pretty decent favorite – not a guarantee by any means, but a decent favorite with almost all fundamentals and intangibles on her side. Democrats have been turning out in droves in every election since 2016 with Trump or Trumpism on the ballot- why do you think this is going to be any different?
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Tie No Respect GIF by Rodney Dangerfield
 
rodoheel said:
I think we should probably just let everyone process what is, by all measures, a very close election in their own way. Some people prefer to maintain an optimistic mindset and keep whispering "everything is OK" to themselves. Others are pessimistic by nature and would rather mentally prepare themselves for the worst while hoping for the best. And others are at all points in between. There are arguments for why each approach can be helpful or harmful to your mental health, but everyone's brain works differently and I think we just need to accept that it's going to be a stressful few weeks given how distressingly close we are to electing Donald Trump president AGAIN.
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Well reasoned and fair. GTFO!

Jk.
 
theel4life said:
Then ignore me.
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Dude, I don't think that most people want to put you on ignore. But when you go into your tailspin, and people start to post positive info, you tend to shit all over it with your worrying.

Look, I get it. I don't want Trump in office either. And in a sane world, he would not only be down double digits, but he wouldn't have even been the candidate. But aside from donating, voting, canvassing, etc., there is literally nothing you can do but wait.
 
theel4life said:
Everyone was calling a red wave.
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There were a lot of right-wing polls that flooded the zone in 2022. I wouldn’t say everyone was calling a red wave, but a lot of people expected one based on prior assumptions about the incumbent president’s party losing ground in their midterm elections.

The high quality pollsters were actually fairly accurate in 22.
 
gtyellowjacket said:
There have been bookies that would take that bet in most large American cities for probably as long as we have had a country but there's no research on it.

Newsweek found some research back to 1980, but I don't think they cite the study in the article. You could probably Google it and find it if you want.
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So in other words, you haven't seen any study cited that backs up your claim that the betting markets are superior to polling in predicting the outcome of the election...
 
hedge said:
So in other words, you haven't seen any study cited that backs up your claim that the betting markets are superior to polling in predicting the outcome of the election...
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Correct.

I’d also add cons associated with online betting, as cited by betting sites themselves. Interestingly, all things we’re seeing in this particular cycle (sharks dropping huge bets in one direction, Trump bets overly-represented, etc.

CONS:​

  • Market manipulation is possible if some sharks make huge bets that sway the odds in a certain direction, such as when someone bet at least $4 million on Mitt Romney in the 2012 election. It is also possible that the population of bettors are not evenly distributed among Democrats, Republicans, and independents, giving one side an advantage.
  • While updating for current news can be good, sometimes that is an overreaction, such as Trump’s guilty verdict this year. After 2 weeks, his odds are right back to where they were before the verdict was read.
  • Live betting odds in 2020 grossly overestimated Trump’s chances of winning on election night as the mail-in votes, which were largely done by Joe Biden voters, were not counted until later, which led to Biden’s victory.
  • Since the odds are just for the winner, it may not be reflecting the state-wide odds properly in the swing states that should ultimately decide the election winner.
 
LosPollosHermanos said:
Trump was 8 to 1 in 2016. There were people putting their entire bankroll on Hillary thinking it was free money. I mean they had to put up like $1000 to win $150 but they thought there was no way she could lose so they did it. Lots of people went broke.
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I'm skeptical that anyone went broke betting on Hillary in 2016...
 
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