BillOfRights
Honored Member
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- 825
Polling average 270 to win, RCP, and 538 on Nov 2, 2020:Trump voters are anything but silent.
If anything I suspect there are a lot of secret Kamala voters out there. They are women in red districts too afraid to tell their husbands, friends, or congregation they are voting for Harris.
Biden 51.4%, trump 43.5%, margin 7.9%
Actual results:
Biden 51.3%, trump 46.8%, margin 4.5%
Actual results had 3.3% more trump voters than polled, even though Biden's numbers were basically identical. I can't prove it, but if they were still silent trump voters in 2020, they likely will be again.
Biden was ahead in the polls by 7.9%, won the popular vote by 4.5%, and still only won the tipping state of Wisconsin by 20,000 votes, or 0.63%. Yes, polling has adjusted, and yes, Dobbs happened, but trump is on the ballot in 2024 and he wasn't in 2022. I believe in Keyser Soze, and I believe in the silent trump voter. I'm not trying to be a doom and gloom buzz kill, but if Harris isn't doing better in the polls by election day, I'm not sure I have enough bourbon for election night.
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