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2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
  • Start date Start date
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  • Politics 
nycfan said:




I actually find it hard to believe anyone is voting for Robinson and yet unlikely he finishes with less than 42-43%.
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I drove back and forth between Charlotte and Raleigh yesterday. On the way home back to Charlotte, I took 64 and 49. There were a number of homes along the way that still had Mark Robinson signs out front. One even had a a big Mark Robinson flag that was connected to one of the posts holding up a big Trump banner.

I also saw a number of signs that said “Robinson/Weatherman” (“Robinson” on the top / “Weatherman” on the bottom.) I wonder what Hal Weatherman thinks of that sign.

For the record, I have not seen a single Mark Robinson sign in Charlotte.
 
DrillAndFillHeel said:
Is is just me or is the confidence level of Harris winning dropping on here?
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It's just you. Confidence level is where it has been: Cautiously confident. This "dropping confidence" you believe you see on this board is just you misdiagnosing our angst that no matter how little sense it makes, this is going to be a close race. Maybe the closest in presidential history. That in itself is depressing, but that doesn't mean we're not confident she'll win in the end. We're just sad that a person like Trump is still going to get minimum 47% of the vote in this country, and we're going to have to sweat it out until the end.

For Kamala to win, she needs to offset a dip in black and hispanic votes by adding more white votes to her coalition. If the gains she's made with white women hold (+6%), it's going to more than offset the dip in black and hispanic votes. White women are the #1 voting bloc in the country.

One other thing: Kamala needs turnout from high-propensity voters to win. Trump's new gains have come from low-propensity male voters, people that don't normally turn out. His coalition is on a much less secure foundation than hers. As David Plough said, he's encouraged because early voting totals haven't shown a big wave of incel votes yet.
 
WaynetheDrain said:
It's just you. Confidence level is where it has been: Cautiously confident. This "dropping confidence" you believe you see on this board is just you misdiagnosing our angst that no matter how little sense it makes, this is going to be a close race. Maybe the closest in presidential history. That in itself is depressing, but that doesn't mean we're not confident she'll win in the end. We're just sad that a person like Trump is still going to get minimum 47% of the vote in this country, and we're going to have to sweat it out until the end.

For Kamala to win, she needs to offset a dip in black and hispanic votes by adding more white votes to her coalition. If the gains she's made with white women hold (+6%), it's going to more than offset the dip in black and hispanic votes. White women are the #1 voting bloc in the country.

One other thing: Kamala needs turnout from high-propensity voters to win. Trump's new gains have come from low-propensity male voters, people that don't normally turn out. His coalition is on a much less secure foundation than hers. As David Plough said, he's encouraged because early voting totals haven't shown a big wave of incel votes yet.
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The most confident I’ve ever been that the presidential candidate I voted for would win the election was in 2016. I didn’t think there was any way that Trump had a chance. I shall never be confident again.
 
I'm apprehensive but I have to feel like with things like the Kelly statements and the press finally showing some signs of remorse for all the sanewashing that Harris has more potential for gaining voters.
 
Icky Mettle said:
The most confident I’ve ever been that the presidential candidate I voted for would win the election was in 2016. I didn’t think there was any way that Trump had a chance. I shall never be confident again.
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Same. Now I have readied my brain to be able to process him winning (again). I was not ready for that in 2016 and it took quite some time. At least now I do know that his fanatics have no boundaries and it is a very real possibility that he can win, and very well may. And that there is nothing he can do that will turn his base from him.
 
lightbluenc said:
Same. Now I have readied my brain to be able to process him winning (again). I was not ready for that in 2016 and it took quite some time. At least now I do know that his fanatics have no boundaries and it is a very real possibility that he can win, and very well may. And that there is nothing he can do that will turn his base from him.
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In 2016, I seriously thought that we would see red states turn blue due to Trump being the worst major party nominee we have had in modern American history, if not ever. That’s how naive I was. Naive about red states turning blue, that is (or even swing states going red). Not naive about how horrible of a candidate he was. I was right on the money with that.
 
Washington Post:

“…
The Post’s Democracy team has your full download here. But a couple of points worth pulling out:
  • Democrats in Arizona are far behind their pace from four years ago, while Republicans are on a similar pace.
  • Nevada Republicans voting early in person have outnumbered Democrats, which is a reversal from four years ago.
  • Turnout appears strong in North Carolina, which should hearten Republicans who were concerned about the Hurricane Helene recovery harming turnout in the disproportionately Republican areas that were hit hardest.
There are some major caveats, including that Democratic-leaning young people tend to vote later in the process. And it’s early. But at least for now, it’s looking as if the Republican Party’s attempts to push their voters to adopt these methods — despite Trump’s baselessly linking them to widespread voter fraud — could be paying dividends. …”

GIFT LINK —> https://wapo.st/48fgRGX

“… A recent YouGov survey blind-tested more than 100 policy proposals — without saying which candidate favored them — and found that nearly all of Harris’s had majority support. By contrast, around half of Trump’s proposals did not. …”

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