2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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aGDevil2k said:
Ummm

Make it make sense. Looks to me like his model is broken
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No, no. You'd see the same thing at 538. It means that there's a much bigger chance of a Kamala blowout than a Trump one.

In the 538 simulation, 1 out of 1000 times, Trump wins with 447 EV, once at 399 and 2 at 382. Meanwhile, there are 20 simulations that give Kamala 400 EVs. It's probably because TX and FL are more in reach for Kamala than NY or CA are for Trump.
 
Focker said:
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Verrrrry interesting. I was born in 1973, the year that Roe V. Wade was decided. Prior the past several years, it was completely inconceivable to me that abortion wouldn't be legal in America. Perhaps some of the women older than me remember the struggle for women's rights prior to RvW... and the women younger than me are feeling the loss. Remember the women's marches after Trump was elected? Sounds like they're showing up at the ballot box, and maybe they're bringing their aunts, grandmothers and/or daughters with them. Meanwhile Trump and Vance have been parading around the bro-verse forgetting that we are in a post-Me Too era, where "whether they like it or not" doesn't fly. Hmmm. Maybe there is hope on Tuesday after all...
 
superrific said:
No, no. You'd see the same thing at 538. It means that there's a much bigger chance of a Kamala blowout than a Trump one.

In the 538 simulation, 1 out of 1000 times, Trump wins with 447 EV, once at 399 and 2 at 382. Meanwhile, there are 20 simulations that give Kamala 400 EVs. It's probably because TX and FL are more in reach for Kamala than NY or CA are for Trump.
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You would think if you have the best chance to win you would actually end up with the most electoral votes
 
aGDevil2k said:
You would think if you have the best chance to win you would actually end up with the most electoral votes
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Basketball player 1: scores in three consecutive games 14 14 16
Basketball player 2: scores in three consecutive games 10 12 27

If we define "winning" as scoring more points than the other player in a game, Player 1 wins twice (14>10, 14>12).
But 2 averages more points per game.
 
superrific said:
Basketball player 1: scores in three consecutive games 14 14 16
Basketball player 2: scores in three consecutive games 10 12 27

If we define "winning" as scoring more points than the other player in a game, Player 1 wins twice (14>10, 14>12).
But 2 averages more points per game.
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Also it might as well be 50/50

And that's using hedging polls so it makes sense that it's split
 
Not so much a poll but I think something will happen tomorrow night that will make the outcome of the election clearer.

UNC plays Elon. Elon shares the name of one of Trump’s biggest backers, Elon Musk. UNC wears blue, the color of the Democratic Party. If UNC beats Elon, then Kamala beats Trump.
 
“An anxious America, weary from a vitriolic campaign season and worried about the state of the nation’s democracy, is voting with determination, with roughly 75 million people having cast ballots in the early voting period.

In North Carolina, nearly 4.5 million voters set an early in-person voting record in the state amid devastation from Hurricane Helene. Georgia voters also set a record with four million voters casting an early ballot.

In Pennsylvania, 1.7 million people voted by mail amid increasingly caustic litigation over whose mail ballots should count.

Nine states have seen more than 50 percent of eligible voters already vote.

Projections from early voting indicate that the overall turnout for the election will probably be between the roughly 60 percent of eligible voters who turned out in 2016 and the two-thirds of eligible voters who voted in 2020, according to Michael McDonald, a professor of politics at the University of Florida who tracks voting. While overall turnout is likely to be slightly lower than the modern high-water mark set in the 2020 election, it still puts the country on pace for a historical high compared with almost all other previous years. …”

www.nytimes.com

In Early Voting Period, Nearly 75 Million Have Cast Ballots

Nearly 75 million people have cast early ballots, making their voices heard amid worry about the process, the outcome and democracy itself.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
 
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