2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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“… Nearly 3.8 million people voted in person during three weeks of early voting, including a crush of 292,000 voters on Friday, the final day. Another 242,000 voters have returned absentee ballots to push the swing state over the 4 million mark. …” [rest behind a paywall]
 
HeelYeah2012 said:
Why do you think the election is 50/50 if you thought Harris was crushing it with white women?
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I didn’t think she was “crushing it” with white women. I thought she had a lead among white women. I also knew that Trump was “crushing it” with white males, which is what I thought made it 50/50. I’m actually surprised it’s 50/50 if she has a substantial deficit among white men and a less substantial deficit among white women. After all, white folks make up the majority of voters by a substantial margin.

I’m also surprised that Biden had such a substantial deficit among white women. I’m not sure how he won with such a deficit.
 
mpaer said:
It will be interesting to see. I sure hope the educated Republican women in Charlotte suburbs show good sense
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Most of them haven’t in prior elections…..I’m not expecting much from them in 2024…….college educated Republicans are likely Christo-Nationalists.
 
The confidence level on this board for Harris has seemed fairly high over the last few days. The conglomerate of all the polls I see (mostly posted here!) seem to demonstrate a toss up and some even suggesting Trump in the lead.

What’s the source of confidence in light of the above mentioned polls??
 
DrillAndFillHeel said:
The confidence level on this board for Harris has seemed fairly high over the last few days. The conglomerate of all the polls I see (mostly posted here!) seem to demonstrate a toss up and some even suggesting Trump in the lead.

What’s the source of confidence in light of the above mentioned polls??
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I’m not confident at all, just hoping her gotv effort makes a difference. I still think he has just as much of a chance at winning as she does. Very concerned about PA and WI still.
 
DrillAndFillHeel said:
The confidence level on this board for Harris has seemed fairly high over the last few days. The conglomerate of all the polls I see (mostly posted here!) seem to demonstrate a toss up and some even suggesting Trump in the lead.

What’s the source of confidence in light of the above mentioned polls??
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Personally, my confidence stems from a wide multitude of factors: the most prolific political fundraising machine in history belongs to the Harris campaign; the most prolific grassroots volunteerism effort in political history belongs to the Harris campaign; the Biden administration, of which Harris has been part, has presided over the recovery and expansion of what is now the strongest economy in U.S. history; Democratic enthusiasm is measurably significantly higher than Republican enthusiasm, on par with the 2008 election that was a blowout; Democrats have built the widest ranging coalition in American political history, from Liz Cheney conservative types to Bernie Sanders progressive types and everyone in between; Donald Trump has lost every single election since 2016 on which either he or his MAGA movement have been on the ballot; Donald Trump is unraveling by the minute right before the eyes of the entire country; and last but not least, there are all sorts of polling data out there that are extremely problematic for Trump, even those which show him leading (for example, the Trump campaign says that their internal polling shows him +5 in Iowa, which is awful for him, and other polls in places like Kansas, Ohio, Nebraska, etc. are quite frankly bad for him, as well).

Anyone who is not confident heading into Tuesday is certainly well within their right to feel that way, and their feeling is entirely valid. But it’s based almost strictly upon fear and anxiety of a repeat of 2016, and we might as well be living on a different planet in a different universe right now in this election than we were in 2016.

I have a really, really, really difficult time believing that I should not be anything other than extremely confident when our opponent is spending his final days of his campaign driving around in garbage trucks and simulating oral sex on microphones.
 
DrillAndFillHeel said:
The confidence level on this board for Harris has seemed fairly high over the last few days. The conglomerate of all the polls I see (mostly posted here!) seem to demonstrate a toss up and some even suggesting Trump in the lead.

What’s the source of confidence in light of the above mentioned polls??
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Donald Trump GIF by Storyful
 
DrillAndFillHeel said:
The confidence level on this board for Harris has seemed fairly high over the last few days. The conglomerate of all the polls I see (mostly posted here!) seem to demonstrate a toss up and some even suggesting Trump in the lead.

What’s the source of confidence in light of the above mentioned polls??
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I don't have any confidence. I do believe our greatest hope is that abortion is on the ballot and that women have had enough. Otherwise it would be a Trump win. It's incomprehensible, really.
 
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Focker said:
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I hate these stories. Black voters did not "surge" this week in any meaningful sense of the term. They kept up with white people. Yesterday was the first day in a while that the black/white turnout gap closed, and it wasn't very much -- I think it went from about 10.5% to 10.2%. We'll see what happens today.

However, the Hispanic vote DID surge this week. On Oct 28, the turnout was 22%. As of yesterday, it was 44%. So that's a lot of votes in a condensed period of time. Hmm, I wonder if something happened recently that might juice Hispanic turnout in NC?

Edit: I was looking at the wrong column on the report. Hispanic turnout is now up to 38%. Still acceptable, and still a lot of movement over the last few days, but not quite the surge implied above.
 
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DrillAndFillHeel said:
The confidence level on this board for Harris has seemed fairly high over the last few days. The conglomerate of all the polls I see (mostly posted here!) seem to demonstrate a toss up and some even suggesting Trump in the lead.

What’s the source of confidence in light of the above mentioned polls??
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Depends what polls you are viewing.

The internals and the gender gap are why the confidence of many is quietly increasing
 
superrific said:
I hate these stories. Black voters did not "surge" this week in any meaningful sense of the term. They kept up with white people. Yesterday was the first day in a while that the black/white turnout gap closed, and it wasn't very much -- I think it went from about 10.5% to 10.2%. We'll see what happens today.

However, the Hispanic vote DID surge this week. On Oct 28, the turnout was 22%. As of yesterday, it was 44%. So that's a lot of votes in a condensed period of time. Hmm, I wonder if something happened recently that might juice Hispanic turnout in NC?
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Polls aren't open today
 
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