2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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tallheel95 said:
TBH I'm not confident. The hopium thread sort of faded away, and with good reason I think.

I don't have any confidence. I do believe our greatest hope is that abortion is on the ballot and that women have had enough. Otherwise it would be a Trump win. It's incomprehensible, really.
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The hopium thread faded because it's no longer necessary. The overlap between "hopium" and sober analysis has become substantial. Most of the hopium now is about running up the score.

It's become clear to me that Michigan is not really one of the swing 7. It's lean D. I say that for a number of reasons. Short version is that the Trump/Kamala delta is larger in MIchigan than any of the swing 7. Arizona is probably next closest, and then WI. After that, Trump has a big challenge. Even if he wins PA, he has to hold both GA and NC and then take NV and AZ.
 
aGDevil2k said:
Depends what polls you are viewing.

The internals and the gender gap are why the confidence of many is quietly increasing
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And this, which may be the most important metric of all.

www.businessinsider.com

Democrats are beating Republicans in voter enthusiasm, even as swing-state polls show tight race

New polling from Gallup shows more Democrats are enthusiastic about voting than Republicans. But it's unclear how much that translates to votes.
www.businessinsider.com www.businessinsider.com

With just five days to go until Election Day, Democrats appear to have a significant advantage over Republicans when it comes to voter enthusiasm.

According to new polling from Gallup, 77% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters say they're more enthusiastic about voting than usual, versus 67% of Republicans and GOP-leaning voters who say the same.

That's a slightly higher level of enthusiasmfor Democrats than they had just before the 2008 election, when that same poll found that 76% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters were more enthusiastic than usual about voting. Barack Obama would go on to win that year in an Electoral College landslide.
 
aGDevil2k said:
Polls aren't open today
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Oh, right. The part of the voter suppression package that the federal court allowed.

Well, then you have it. Strong Hispanic turnout this week put the Hispanic turnout at a respectable 44%. No, sorry, I was looking at the wrong column. 38% turnout. That could be better but my understanding is that Hispanics vote on ED (and indeed they voted late this week).

Black/white turnout gap could be better. We'll see what happens on ED. White turnout is 61%, so beginning to approach the ceiling. The black vote can catch up because it has more low-hanging fruit.

Gender split is amazing -- 4 points. Thus, 51.7% of the total votes cast were women, and 41.1% men. Undesignated pulls 8%. Who knows what that means, but if the gender turnout gap remains at 4, it bodes very well for the campaign.
 
superrific said:
The hopium thread faded because it's no longer necessary. The overlap between "hopium" and sober analysis has become substantial. Most of the hopium now is about running up the score.

It's become clear to me that Michigan is not really one of the swing 7. It's lean D. I say that for a number of reasons. Short version is that the Trump/Kamala delta is larger in MIchigan than any of the swing 7. Arizona is probably next closest, and then WI. After that, Trump has a big challenge. Even if he wins PA, he has to hold both GA and NC and then take NV and AZ.
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Yeah, I thought I had erased the first part about the hopium thread prior to completing my response, but somehow it got posted.

Here are a couple of articles that give food for thought about why my confidence has been wavering. Let's be clear that I will be devastated if Trump wins... but my method of coping is to try to go ahead and steel myself for a loss.

www.nytimes.com

Opinion | Our 61 Focus Groups Make Me Think Trump Has a Good Chance of Winning

What we learned from interviewing nearly 700 Americans over nearly three years.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
www.theatlantic.com

The Great, Disappearing Trump Campaign

In North Carolina, the Harris campaign has built a massive infrastructure. Trump is employing a very different strategy.
www.theatlantic.com www.theatlantic.com
 
DrillAndFillHeel said:
The confidence level on this board for Harris has seemed fairly high over the last few days. The conglomerate of all the polls I see (mostly posted here!) seem to demonstrate a toss up and some even suggesting Trump in the lead.

What’s the source of confidence in light of the above mentioned polls??
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Trump and team Trump lie about everything and are lying to themselves with inflated polls and flood the poll zone which I believe is driving the "tied race" talk. Not sure why but I believe in my fellow Americans to be better than the MAGA cultists.
 
tallheel95 said:
Yeah, I thought I had erased the first part about the hopium thread prior to completing my response, but somehow it got posted.

Here are a couple of articles that give food for thought about why my confidence has been wavering. Let's be clear that I will be devastated if Trump wins... but my method of coping is to try to go ahead and steel myself for a loss.

www.nytimes.com

Opinion | Our 61 Focus Groups Make Me Think Trump Has a Good Chance of Winning

What we learned from interviewing nearly 700 Americans over nearly three years.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
www.theatlantic.com

The Great, Disappearing Trump Campaign

In North Carolina, the Harris campaign has built a massive infrastructure. Trump is employing a very different strategy.
www.theatlantic.com www.theatlantic.com
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That Times article is pretty weak. Who cares about the focus groups from 2022 or 2023?
 
The betting markets have been surging in Kamala's favor the last four days. Trump still has a very slight lead on some sites, but the margin has shrunk from 30 points to about 2-5 points.

electionbettingodds.com

Election Betting Odds

Live betting odds on the 2024 presidential election, and more! Who will win? Biden, Trump, Harris, DeSantis?...
electionbettingodds.com

PredictIt

www.predictit.org www.predictit.org
polymarket.com

Presidential Election Winner 2024

Polymarket | This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald J. Trump wins the 2024 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The r...
polymarket.com polymarket.com
 
SmilingJack said:
The article about the pollsters being cowards and going with the "tie" narrative just to be safe is part of it.
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Yes, they have. the trend is your friend. There's a phase delay in polls, and the Trump insanity is finally having an effect.
 
1moretimeagain said:
Just had a Harris canvasser at my door making sure I’d be voting Tuesday.
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I finally voted early this weekend. I had been knocked three or four times -- but on reflection, I don't think any of them were Kamala. I got knocked by the state Dems, the county party, an issue advocacy group, and someone running in a down ballot race.

I tell them that I have never voted for a Republican in my life and I ain't gonna start now, so maybe that's why Kamala isn't bothering with me. The state and county Dems might not have that information, or they might think it worthwhile to knock anyway to get a read on down ballot races, and of course the issue-advocacy group has its own agenda that partly but not entirely overlaps with Kamala.

So to me, ground game is important. I haven't been knocked by a single GOP canvasser, which maybe isn't surprising given the info about me. But my neighborhood isn't entirely liberal and I haven't seen any GOP door knockers around. Not that I sit on my porch 10 hours a day and monitor who comes and goes, but there doesn't seem to be much presence outside of yard signs.
 
superrific said:
I finally voted early this weekend. I had been knocked three or four times -- but on reflection, I don't think any of them were Kamala. I got knocked by the state Dems, the county party, an issue advocacy group, and someone running in a down ballot race.

I tell them that I have never voted for a Republican in my life and I ain't gonna start now, so maybe that's why Kamala isn't bothering with me. The state and county Dems might not have that information, or they might think it worthwhile to knock anyway to get a read on down ballot races, and of course the issue-advocacy group has its own agenda that partly but not entirely overlaps with Kamala.

So to me, ground game is important. I haven't been knocked by a single GOP canvasser, which maybe isn't surprising given the info about me. But my neighborhood isn't entirely liberal and I haven't seen any GOP door knockers around. Not that I sit on my porch 10 hours a day and monitor who comes and goes, but there doesn't seem to be much presence outside of yard signs.
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Trump's game is all interwebz smoke and mirrors
 
superrific said:
I finally voted early this weekend. I had been knocked three or four times -- but on reflection, I don't think any of them were Kamala. I got knocked by the state Dems, the county party, an issue advocacy group, and someone running in a down ballot race.

I tell them that I have never voted for a Republican in my life and I ain't gonna start now, so maybe that's why Kamala isn't bothering with me. The state and county Dems might not have that information, or they might think it worthwhile to knock anyway to get a read on down ballot races, and of course the issue-advocacy group has its own agenda that partly but not entirely overlaps with Kamala.

So to me, ground game is important. I haven't been knocked by a single GOP canvasser, which maybe isn't surprising given the info about me. But my neighborhood isn't entirely liberal and I haven't seen any GOP door knockers around. Not that I sit on my porch 10 hours a day and monitor who comes and goes, but there doesn't seem to be much presence outside of yard signs.
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It may have been Mecklenburg Dems. The only race he specifically asked about was Harris, but the flyer he left was produced by Meck Dems and includes local and state races.
 


I could’ve sworn we had folks promising us that Joe Biden making a gaffe on an obscure Zoom call would be irreparably damaging to the Harris campaign, but a Trump surrogate calling Puerto Ricans garbage and then the campaign doubling down by wheeling Trump around in a garbage truck, would not negatively impact the Trump campaign.
 
HeelYeah2012 said:
Seriously?
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I’m also surprised that white females go trump, but less so about the numbers that turn out as the rationale. Do they have no self-respect? I can’t imagine my wife or daughters voting for a person that degrades women, has cheated on multiple wives, lies constantly, has been convicted of sexual assault, and has no moral fiber in his body. I can understand why dumb male boomers and zoomers vote for him because their lives didn’t turn out as expected and they don’t want minorities to have additional power/influence or are in it for the lulz, but expect women to be able to be more rational than those morons.
 
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