2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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nycfan said:


Agreed about treating this like a convention bump and waiting so see how things settle down. But it does seem like the double-haters were mostly sincere about not wanting either candidate but were taking it out against the incumbent.
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Yeah but it has felt like it's only been growing
 
*obvious caveat that the Democrats still have to put in the hard work every day between now and November, and actually have to GOTV*

Assuming Democratic turnout is what it should be- and what it currently appears like it will be- I think Harris should have no problem carrying the Blue Wall, Arizona, and Nevada, which gets her 287 EC votes. I also think we currently have many reasons to believe that Georgia is going to stay blue, which gets to 303. The real fun begins when getting to watch whether NC flips, as well, of which I think there is a very real 50/50 chance. That gets to 319.
 
FWIW harris herself said last night in Arizona that the Democrats are the underdogs. Seems like they are well aware the faux convention bump could fade.
 
Trump’s only shot to win the election now is if Harris screws up when she’s off teleprompter and actually is pressed on her record, etc. during press conferences and debates. Still don’t think she’s answered a question since becoming the nominee, right?

In other words, Trump isn’t going to “win” the election but there’s still time for Kamala to “lose” it, like Biden did in the first debate.

I suspect she will carry every state Biden did in 2020. Still can’t believe there were some who thought as late as three weeks ago that Joe Biden gave the Dems the best chance to win :ROFLMAO:
 
clearly the DNC is a huge opportunity. I would love to see many of the Olympic champions on the podium.
too much to hope for a Taylor Swift, Beyonce tag team endorsement.

but first night needs to be about Biden with him getting attention and thanks for putting country first


after that its all about the debates, the inevitable 60 minute interview and how badly Trump continues to flounder with weird rants.
 
HeelYeah2012 said:
Still can’t believe there were some who thought as late as three weeks ago that Joe Biden gave the Dems the best chance to win :ROFLMAO:
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Well on the old ZZLP board there was literally only one poster who thought that 3 weeks ago but that one poster posted about it every 45 seconds so I can see why it may have appeared to be more than one person.
 
Sheetsfaced said:
Well on the old ZZLP board there was literally only one poster who thought that 3 weeks ago but that one poster posted about it every 45 seconds so I can see why it may have appeared to be more than one person.
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No no no, not true at all. There was obviously one poster who spammed the board with it nonstop, but plenty of posters felt that it was too late in the game to make the change and that subbing in the backup quarterback at this stage of the game was too risky.

What they didn’t realize is that Biden was already sunk. Someone made this analogy, but it was like in baseball when your starting pitcher is serving up meatball after meatball. You may not have a very good bullpen but you can’t just leave the starter in at that point, no matter how little you trust the bullpen.
 
nycfan said:
BFD:

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Slotkin +3 in MI
Casey+14 in PA
Baldwin+7 in WI
Brown +4 in Ohio
Gallego +4 in AZ
Rosen +3 in NV
Tester -2 in MT
Allred -2 in TX
Murcarsel-Powell -4 in FL

The Senate is looking ok at this point...

With the exception of Tester and WV Dems are ahead in their races and FL and TX could become intersting over the next few weeks;)
 
lightbluenc said:
So unhinged press conferences DO matter to voters? 🙃😉
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See the tweets above - after the Dems removed Biden it kind of put us in uncharted waters in this whole cycle. Harris may be polling like a generic Democrat right now (or maybe not). If so Trump still has a good shot. If not he’s likely toast.
 
HeelYeah2012 said:
Trump’s only shot to win the election now is if Harris screws up when she’s off teleprompter and actually is pressed on her record, etc. during press conferences and debates. Still don’t think she’s answered a question since becoming the nominee, right?

In other words, Trump isn’t going to “win” the election but there’s still time for Kamala to “lose” it, like Biden did in the first debate.

I suspect she will carry every state Biden did in 2020. Still can’t believe there were some who thought as late as three weeks ago that Joe Biden gave the Dems the best chance to win :ROFLMAO:
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Hey bro just @ me next time! (Haha jk). But I was definitely one of the ones- though not nearly as vocal or as adamant about it as that one poster whose name is escaping me- who thought that Joe was the Dems best bet up until he actually dropped out. I just figured that 1. the advantage of incumbency with a good legislative track record was something that shouldn’t be forfeited, 2. that a bloody open primary would kill any changes the Dems had to win, and 3. I was still remembering the 2019 Kamala Harris on the campaign trail and had no clue she had become the 2024 campaigning powerhouse that we’ve seen her become. Shows how little I know, though. Never been more glad to be wrong in my life!
 
HeelYeah2012 said:
See the tweets above - after the Dems removed Biden it kind of put us in uncharted waters in this whole cycle. Harris may be polling like a generic Democrat right now (or maybe not). If so Trump still has a good shot. If not he’s likely toast.
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If trump and Harris both say completely unhinged things at their own press conferences does it hurt both the same or is there a double standard?
 
The polls that should be *really* fun to look at will be the ones at the end of August/early September if the DNC goes off without a hitch and like the great, big party it’s looking like it’s shaping up to be.
 
HeelYeah2012 said:
No no no, not true at all. There was obviously one poster who spammed the board with it nonstop, but plenty of posters felt that it was too late in the game to make the change and that subbing in the backup quarterback at this stage of the game was too risky.

What they didn’t realize is that Biden was already sunk. Someone made this analogy, but it was like in baseball when your starting pitcher is serving up meatball after meatball. You may not have a very good bullpen but you can’t just leave the starter in at that point, no matter how little you trust the bullpen.
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it's looking like we brought Emmanuel Clase out of the bullpen :cool:
 
Personally I’m thrilled that Kamala isn’t catering to the press. Obviously at some point she will need to sit down with them and answer questions- I believe her campaign said earlier this week that their plan is to do so by the end of this month?- but right now she is absolutely crushing it on the campaign trail while her opponent is absolutely having a nuclear meltdown. Why in the world should she talk to the press? She’s obviously getting her message out loud and clear, and it’s obviously working really, really well, to the people that matter. The only people who are mad right now that Harris isn’t talking to the press are Trump voters….and the press. Everyone else is enjoying watching this great big blue snowball roll downhill with tons of momentum.
 
People who think Kamala Harris will be "exposed" by interviews, debates, etc don't seem to realize that she will be compared to Trump, who has been hiding in the shadow of Joe Biden. I think the more exposure each gets the larger the gap between them will grow- with Trump ending up with only his hardcore 43% or so of the voters.
 
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