2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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Rock said:
Yeah, keeping the momentum has me worried. Trump had the momentum like 3 weeks ago. Granted, a lot changed but..

I'm a worrier!

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That’s entirely justifiable, but there’s a big difference. Trump had momentum mainly because of Biden. Kamala has momentum because people love what they’re seeing from her. Most Americans still hate Trump and that won’t change. If Kamala can continue being likeable and positive, I think she has a great chance to crush him.
 
farce said:
"There's something happening on the ground in Florida."

Perhaps it is because more than anyone else in the country (except maybe Texans) Florida has seen and felt the effects of what a MAGA driven agenda looks like when put in place by an asshole like DeSantis and a loyal MAGA legislature. Maybe they've seen enough.
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That poll is Miami-specific, but I can tell you what's happening on a wider level in FL. It's the same thing that has happened all over the country, but especially in states where the reproductive rights issues have made their way onto the ballots: it was wildly, wildly unpopular to overturn Roe and restrict those existing rights in any way, and republicans are going to pay massively for it. Firmly red places like KS, OH, KY have already shown the turnout waves it has created. This is an underestimated and under-polled population and it's going to show up huge.

As far as battleground states, reproductive rights are directly on the ballot in FL and NV. But the albatross is indirectly draped around the neck of every republican on every state's ballot, and I've been saying that even a cardboard cutout of Biden could've won this election, even after the debate disaster and ensuing media/pundits panic. It seems like only me and that one presidential historian who makes the predictions still feel that way.

But now that part is moot, and where Biden would've just edged by, Harris has energized people in a way that is going to make it a total beatdown. The convention bump hasn't even come yet. By Nov 5, it won't be close.
 
duluoz said:
That poll is Miami-specific, but I can tell you what's happening on a wider level in FL. It's the same thing that has happened all over the country, but especially in states where the reproductive rights issues have made their way onto the ballots: it was wildly, wildly unpopular to overturn Roe and restrict those existing rights in any way, and republicans are going to pay massively for it. Firmly red places like KS, OH, KY have already shown the turnout waves it has created. This is an underestimated and under-polled population and it's going to show up huge.

As far as battleground states, reproductive rights are directly on the ballot in FL and NV. But the albatross is indirectly draped around the neck of every republican on every state's ballot, and I've been saying that even a cardboard cutout of Biden could've won this election, even after the debate disaster and ensuing media/pundits panic. It seems like only me and that one presidential historian who makes the predictions still feel that way.

But now that part is moot, and where Biden would've just edged by, Harris has energized people in a way that is going to make it a total beatdown. The convention bump hasn't even come yet. By Nov 5, it won't be close.
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Agreed. I think it's going to be an absolute electoral asskicking.
 
Zoo_View said:
I said it to CFord on a thread (maybe this one), many of you haven’t experienced a Democratic circular firing squad…..Kamala Harris hasn’t.

LONG, LONG WAY to go.

Don’t go ordering drapes or couches for the Oval Office or West Wing.
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After the 2016 nightmare, and Trump doing better than expected in 2020, I'm not going to feel confident or comfortable until all of the votes are counted and Harris has been officially certified as the winner by Congress and the Electoral College in January 2025. It does look bad for Trump right now, but as we've seen over the past month the momentum in campaigns can change on a dime in modern politics. If Harris or Walz has a disappointing debate performance or some right-wing media outlet digs up some dirt on Harris or Walz or something else unexpected happens then her momentum could come to a halt rather quickly. Having said all that, I would rather be in her position than Trump's right now.
 
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Mulberry Heel said:
After the 2016 nightmare, and Trump doing better than expected in 2020, I'm not going to feel confident or comfortable until all of the votes are counted and Harris has been officially certified as the winner by Congress and the Electoral College in January 2025. It does look bad for Trump right now, but as we've seen over the past month the momentum in campaigns can change on a dime in modern politics. If Harris or Walz has a disappointing debate performance or some right-wing media outlet digs up some dirt on Harris on Walz or something else unexpected happens then her momentum could come to a halt rather quickly. Having said all that, I would rather be in her position than Trump's right now.
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Spot on Mulberry. I think a lot of people went to bed thinking Hillary would be elected and woke up to a surprise. You never know
 
Rock said:
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As others have talked about in other threads, I think the notion that NC is turning bluer because of people moving here from other states is incorrect. There are plenty of red voters amongst those New Yorkers and Floridians that move here.

NC is purple because we have a large minority population. NC will only go blue if that bloc goes to the polls. It wasn't going to happen with Biden; it may happen with Harris.
 
WBroylesH said:
As others have talked about in other threads, I think the notion that NC is turning bluer because of people moving here from other states is incorrect. There are plenty of red voters amongst those New Yorkers and Floridians that move here.

NC is purple because we have a large minority population. NC will only go blue if that bloc goes to the polls. It wasn't going to happen with Biden; it may happen with Harris.
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I hope we see Harris and walz in person in NC in fairly short order. That would significantly benefit to build momentum here.
 
Mulberry Heel said:
After the 2016 nightmare, and Trump doing better than expected in 2020, I'm not going to feel confident or comfortable until all of the votes are counted and Harris has been officially certified as the winner by Congress and the Electoral College in January 2025. It does look bad for Trump right now, but as we've seen over the past month the momentum in campaigns can change on a dime in modern politics. If Harris or Walz has a disappointing debate performance or some right-wing media outlet digs up some dirt on Harris or Walz or something else unexpected happens then her momentum could come to a halt rather quickly. Having said all that, I would rather be in her position than Trump's right now.
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!
 


In the past, this pollster's results tend to lean R in past elections, but this lead is similar to what they found right after Harris became the likely nominee when Biden withdrew (after having Biden trailing Trump) ...
 
CLT Heel said:
I hope we see Harris and walz in person in NC in fairly short order. That would significantly benefit to build momentum here.
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Same here. They were supposed to hear last week but the storm caused them to cancel. I was really hoping for a quick reschedule before the convention.
 
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