2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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I feel like this is one of his worst, most egregious lie tweets of all time. Pollsters are changing their methods and standards from three weeks ago? Right at the time he started losing in the polls?

He is freaking. out.
 
Rock said:
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I feel like this is one of his worst, most egregious lie tweets of all time. Pollsters are changing their methods and standards from three weeks ago? Right at the time he started losing in the polls?

He is freaking. out.
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He’s in absolute panic mode right now. This is what compulsive liars do when the walls start closing in. The lies become more and more outrageous and unbelievable.
 
Trump’s campaign reminds me of when I was a with the football team at UNC and we played at Clemson one year, and we went into the halftime locker room either tied or slightly ahead and just completely feeling ourselves, and then Clemson changed their game plan at halftime and started feeding Sammy Watkins and DeAndre Hopkins literally every play and they scored like 35 points in a 10 min span in the 3rd quarter and just absolutely kicked our ass. I remember being on the sideline at Death Valley and everyone just kind of standing around looking completely dazed during that onslaught. That’s got to be what it feels like to be part of the Trump campaign right now as they are getting hit and pummeled over and over and over and appear totally powerless to stop it
 
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nycfan said:


In the past, this pollster's results tend to lean R in past elections, but this lead is similar to what they found right after Harris became the likely nominee when Biden withdrew (after having Biden trailing Trump) ...
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You know my feelings about polls but a couple of things about this poll confirm my predictions from months ago:

1) Kennedy likely wouldn't get 5%; and
2) any of the other third-party candidates would be lucky to get 1%.
 
Please let NC show they are entering normalcy We ain't hicktown no mo.....maybe
 
quakerdevil said:
Just imagine the insanity of all the major news networks calling the race for Harris on election night if the margins are big enough. There's no "blue shift" for Don Old to claim as rigged. It solidifies the views of all rational people and lowers the chances of another J6 type event.
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Honestly that is a driving factor for some on the fence folks. Prevent his tantrum
 
nycfan said:
We’ve seen these kind of outlier polls occur and be proven wrong in terms of margin before in Wisconsin, but certainly an indication of the Harris/Walz momentum of the moment.

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The other thing to keep in mind is that you (should) expect polls to scatter around the "true" margin, so if the true margin is Harris +5 and the polls have margins of error in the +/-4 point range, then it's expected that individual polls should get anywhere from Harris +1 to Harris +9. This same thinking applies to the poll a little while back that had Harris+12 (or something ridiculous like that) in PA. It seem super unlikely that Harris will win by anywhere close to +12 in PA, but a result like that also suggests that the "true" margin is solidly at least Harris+(A few).
 
quakerdevil said:
Just imagine the insanity of all the major news networks calling the race for Harris on election night if the margins are big enough. There's no "blue shift" for Don Old to claim as rigged. It solidifies the views of all rational people and lowers the chances of another J6 type event.
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I know that Kamala/Walz have all the momentum right now, but we have to remember that the fundamentals of this race really haven't changed...it's going to be tight on election night and it would be absolutely surprising if the vote tabulation doesn't go into the next day in the closest swing states.

Election night is almost certainly going to be rough no matter what we hope might happen.
 
SnoopRob said:
I know that Kamala/Walz have all the momentum right now, but we have to remember that the fundamentals of this race really haven't changed...it's going to be tight on election night and it would be absolutely surprising if the vote tabulation doesn't go into the next day in the closest swing states.

Election night is almost certainly going to be rough no matter what we hope might happen.
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Maybe. And maybe it is a blowout. There is a lot of time between now and November. A lot of time for either campaign to mess up. There is a decent chance that this is blown wide open by November. We may know the outcome by 8 PM EST on November 5. Or, you could be right and this goes down to the wire. Very hard to predict right now.
 
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Yea, the polling has actually moved more towards the fundamentals of the race (which is why 538 had it close even when Biden was still in). Now we have a deeply unpopular old man with worsening mental acuity vs a younger far more energetic nominee. I feel a hell of a lot better than i did 3-4 weeks ago
 
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