2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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milom98 said:
I tortured myself this morning by watching some Fox News just to see what they were talking about and the overall narrative is that Harris is slipping in the polls and Trump is really ahead in the race. Basically saying that the public has now seen enough of Harris and are running back to Trump.
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I hope they keep it up. Complacency on their side is fine
 
treblkickd said:
I think unfortunately, that who really does better in debates is much less important these days than who outperforms their expectations (largely by the media sphere). I mean, in the first debate Trump was hot garbage, but he's rarely ever made any actual rhetorical sense and so there are no expectations for him to do so in any debate or public forum. It's incredibly frustrating, but the media basically sets the bar for Trump in a place where he'd have to literally piss his pants mid-debate in order to get the kind of negative attention that Biden got after the first debate (not so different from how the bar was laid on the floor for Bush during debates). The only source of optimism I have for this years debates is that the Harris-Walz team has already shown that they're savvy to how the meme-like messaging is more important than winning some sort of high school debate contest. I would hope they will use the debates to hammer home how weird and creepy Trump and Vance are.
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This 100%. The first time I recall people making “exceeding low expectations” as the standard for winning a debate was when George W. Bush was running for president (as you mentioned). The Bush campaign had a very sound strategy of talking Gore up as a formidable debater prior to the first debate, despite the fact that Gore had never really earned such a reputation. The Bush campaign painted Bush as the underdog, which is a good way to get people rooting for you. After setting high expectations for Gore and low expectations for Bush, Bush pretty much came out the “winner” based on exceeding people’s expectations, while at the same time Gore didn’t live up to the expectations that the Bush campaign worked to set for him.

We saw it again 8 years later with Sarah Palin. The bar was much lower for her. I don’t think anyone with any level of objectivity thought she won her debate with Biden, but for many, their assessment of her performance was relatively favorable due to her having surpassed extremely low expectations.

Then there came Trump. Outside of those deeply entrenched in his cult, expectations for him could not be lower and he doesn’t disappoint in that regard. As bad as people outside of his cult expect him to be, he is even worse. And he’s so bad, that for many, his performance doesn’t even factor into the equation. The focus is therefore entirely on his opponent and every little detail about the opponent’s debate performance becomes scrutinized. The thought is, “We all know Trump is bad, so we won’t even discuss him, so let’s just talk about [insert name of opponent].”
 
Yes I know the debate earlier this year had the effect of getting Pres Biden out of the race, but I don't think debates have nearly the impact they had several decades ago. The debates aren;t going to hurt Trump even if he does badly. KH needs to avoid catastrophic errors, not let Trump distract onto other things, and pound home her message on
reproductive rights,
aid for middle and lower calles not wealthy,
respect for rule of law ep by Presidents,.
note Dems are not tranactional like Trump (they give aid regardless of whether you voted for them),
strike an optimistic tone unlike Trump's dsytopian one
Follow the law, work hard, don;t try to force your beliefs on others, and we will do all we can to help you succeed
 
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CarolinaFever said:
No way Trump and Vance do better in the debates than Harris and Walz. Harris being a woman of color dominating Trump is going to bring out the worst of him in the debates.
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They don't have to - Trump hasn't done better in any of his debates with Clinton or Biden and it doesn't matter. He didn't beat Biden in the first debate in any real debating sense, but Biden lost it by seeming to be mentally out to lunch for the first half-hour or so. If Harris or Walz get any facts wrong or Trump or Vance hit them with a good one-liner and they can't respond then you can bet that the news media will be all over it. I certainly feel far better about Harris doing well against Trump than Biden, and Walz should certainly be able to more than hold his own against Vance, but if this campaign has shown us anything so far it is to expect the unexpected. My own guess is that they'll both do fine, but I'm not counting on anything in this crazy campaign year until it actually happens.
 
treblkickd said:
I think unfortunately, that who really does better in debates is much less important these days than who outperforms their expectations (largely by the media sphere). I mean, in the first debate Trump was hot garbage, but he's rarely ever made any actual rhetorical sense and so there are no expectations for him to do so in any debate or public forum. It's incredibly frustrating, but the media basically sets the bar for Trump in a place where he'd have to literally piss his pants mid-debate in order to get the kind of negative attention that Biden got after the first debate (not so different from how the bar was laid on the floor for Bush during debates). The only source of optimism I have for this years debates is that the Harris-Walz team has already shown that they're savvy to how the meme-like messaging is more important than winning some sort of high school debate contest. I would hope they will use the debates to hammer home how weird and creepy Trump and Vance are.
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^All of this.
 
Mulberry Heel said:
They don't have to - Trump hasn't done better in any of his debates with Clinton or Biden and it doesn't matter. He didn't beat Biden in the first debate in any real debating sense, but Biden lost it by seeming to be mentally out to lunch for the first half-hour or so. If Harris or Walz get any facts wrong or Trump or Vance hit them with a good one-liner and they can't respond then you can bet that the news media will be all over it. I certainly feel far better about Harris doing well against Trump than Biden, and Walz should certainly be able to more than hold his own against Vance, but if this campaign has shown us anything so far it is to expect the unexpected. My own guess is that they'll both do fine, but I'm not counting on anything in this crazy campaign year until it actually happens.
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I think you're giving Trump way too much credit. Harris will mop the floor with him. Trump is going to get so flustered having to deal with a woman of color like Harris.
 
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