2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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The reason to sweat MN isn't because Kamala might lose it. If she loses it, she will likely have lost many other states as well and MN will make little difference.

But polls of MN are at least partly predictive of polls in WI. If she's only winning in MN by 2, then that might imply that she's in a dead heat in WI or even behind.

This shit is complicated and basically impossible to process in our heads, which is why people build models to do the calculations. The models are only as good as the inputs, and the inputs aren't great because we just don't have a lot of data on which to train, but they are also better than nothing.
The good news is Wisky has had a real comeback the last few meaningful elections-like the Wisky Supremes
 
The reason to sweat MN isn't because Kamala might lose it. If she loses it, she will likely have lost many other states as well and MN will make little difference.

But polls of MN are at least partly predictive of polls in WI. If she's only winning in MN by 2, then that might imply that she's in a dead heat in WI or even behind.

This shit is complicated and basically impossible to process in our heads, which is why people build models to do the calculations. The models are only as good as the inputs, and the inputs aren't great because we just don't have a lot of data on which to train, but they are also better than nothing.
I get that. Not sweating Wisconsin either.
 
The reason to sweat MN isn't because Kamala might lose it. If she loses it, she will likely have lost many other states as well and MN will make little difference.

But polls of MN are at least partly predictive of polls in WI. If she's only winning in MN by 2, then that might imply that she's in a dead heat in WI or even behind.

This shit is complicated and basically impossible to process in our heads, which is why people build models to do the calculations. The models are only as good as the inputs, and the inputs aren't great because we just don't have a lot of data on which to train, but they are also better than nothing.
The same math applies to Texas too. Trump has roughly the same chance of winning Minn as Harris has of winning Texas. To the extent Minn is correlated to Wisc, MI and PA, Texas is arguably just as correlated to Nevada, AZ, Florida and GA.
 
During the pandemic, I went to the dentist and my hygienist talked at length about how her mother and sister had both recently died of Covid. I felt sorry for her until she then railed against the vaccines and would never get the vaccine. Masks in the office also were not mandatory. Needless to say, I switched dental practices. Much happier and the new dentist happened to be a Tar Heel!
The North Carolina Dental Society message boards were a COMPLETE shitshow of pseudoscience and flat out snake oil during the pandemic. As a guy who practices in Chapel Hill, I couldn’t believe the positions being taken by some local colleagues. I whittled down my referral list dramatically in 2020, and completely changed the way I approach my work with the admissions committee at the dental school.
 
The North Carolina Dental Society message boards were a COMPLETE shitshow of pseudoscience and flat out snake oil during the pandemic. As a guy who practices in Chapel Hill, I couldn’t believe the positions being taken by some local colleagues. I whittled down my referral list dramatically in 2020, and completely changed the way I approach my work with the admissions committee at the dental school.
There is a long history between quackery and dentistry (although chiropractors definitely take the cake). I've generally found dentists to be some of the most "off" of the medical professionals I've dealt with. Like, if I were going to bet on which medical professionals were most likely to be in to foot fetishism, dentists would be number 1 with a bullet.
 
The North Carolina Dental Society message boards were a COMPLETE shitshow of pseudoscience and flat out snake oil during the pandemic. As a guy who practices in Chapel Hill, I couldn’t believe the positions being taken by some local colleagues. I whittled down my referral list dramatically in 2020, and completely changed the way I approach my work with the admissions committee at the dental school.
I had neighbor once that was a fairly prominent member of the Dental School When his young buck went to UNC he had him join the fraternity that flies the Confederate flag on some special day
 
There is a long history between quackery and dentistry (although chiropractors definitely take the cake). I've generally found dentists to be some of the most "off" of the medical professionals I've dealt with. Like, if I were going to bet on which medical professionals were most likely to be in to foot fetishism, dentists would be number 1 with a bullet.
brother anyone GIF
 
I had neighbor once that was a fairly prominent member of the Dental School When his young buck went to UNC he had him join the fraternity that flies the Confederate flag on some special day
That would be the KA House - used to be on the right in Little Fraternity Court.

I’m confident you’re not referring to Dr. Sockwell or his son, Sid.
 
Not that Polls mean anything - but... updated less than 24 hours ago:
  • Harris leads Trump 47% to 42% in Reuters/Ipsos poll
  • 53% of voters familiar with debate say Harris won
I like me some Reuters, and not because of this most recent poll result. I like them because they are the Gold Standard in unbiased, real news that leans neither left nor right. Totally trustworthy Worldwide.
 
That would be the KA House - used to be on the right in Little Fraternity Court.

I’m confident you’re not referring to Dr. Sockwell or his son, Sid.
No sir
The Sockwells are fine folks He had some nice dark haired daughter about my age . Susan?
 
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I made the mistake of logging onto Twitter and right at the top is Nate Silver posting about how people have NDS (Nate Derangement Syndrome). This dude is such a loser.

I made the mistake of logging onto Twitter and right at the top is Nate Silver posting about how people have NDS (Nate Derangement Syndrome). This dude is such a loser.
He loves the attention
 
It's like this, though: is it really their intelligence?

If the MAGAs were as dumb in real life as they are about politics, nothing would get done. I had an electrician at my house yesterday. He definitely looked, talked and had a car outfitted like a Trumper, without any specific references of course. I'd put good money on him being a Trumper (for one thing, white working class men are overwhelmingly likely to be MAGA, especially in my state, even if we ignore all the other stuff). He did his job. My new breaker was installed, and as far as I know, it was done correctly.

We've also talked about all the indisputably smart people who are MAGA. My dad was a surgeon, and a good one too judging by his clientele (which included a couple of Saudi emirs). And he's MAGA to the core. He believes all the bullshit. If Trump was his patient, my dad wouldn't take what he says at face value. He'd order tests to see what was really going on, which is to say he would look for the facts. But if Trump is his presidential candidate, it's all different.

See, I think that there are multiple meanings of the word "stupid," and only one of them is a strict antonym for intelligence. When we say MAGA is stupid, we're not necessarily saying they lack intelligence. We are talking about the way they are using their intelligence, which is, shall we say, highly suboptimal.
I have also been around many intelligent MAGA’s. What I think is that they lack critical thinking skills. Here is a good article on the subject. One take from it is that even some very intelligent people cannot get past their biases.

 
There is a long history between quackery and dentistry (although chiropractors definitely take the cake). I've generally found dentists to be some of the most "off" of the medical professionals I've dealt with. Like, if I were going to bet on which medical professionals were most likely to be in to foot fetishism, dentists would be number 1 with a bullet.
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I have also been around many intelligent MAGA’s. What I think is that they lack critical thinking skills. Here is a good article on the subject. One take from it is that even some very intelligent people cannot get past their biases.


A certain percentage are bigoted schmucks.

A certain percentage only want their taxes low (see HeelYeah2012).

A certain percentage are both.
 
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No sir
The Sockwells are fine folks He had some nice dark haired daughter about my age . Susan?
Sid was two years older than me. His Mom was on the school board for 8-10 years - one of those people who just made the world and Chapel Hill (and Carrboro) a better place. I never knew the older siblings. There were two daughters.

Sid’s parents, like seemingly the entire parental body of former Rainbow and CHHS soccer players, retired to Carol Woods. Sid took over his Dad’s dental practice.

Really nice family.
 
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