2024 Presidential Election | 40 Days to Election Day

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Mulberry Heel said:
I don't think Democrats were like that until 2016. The 2000 election angered them, but 2016 traumatized Democrats and shook them as no election in my lifetime. The notion that 63 million Americans could possibly have reasoned that Donald Freaking Trump was in any way qualified to be POTUS wrecked whatever faith they had developed in American democracy after Obama's two election wins. I remember reading message board posts during the campaign and while many posters were not exactly enthusiastic about Hillary and thought the election might be close, relatively few thought that Trump would actually win. The fact that Trump nearly won in 2020 and got 11 million more votes than he did four years earlier just made them even more pessimistic. And so here we are. And yes, I also fear that Dear Leader will once again - against all reason and logic and decency - win the Oval Office yet again.
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This captures my thoughts and feelings 100%.
 
Anyone calling themselves a moderate Republican, listen to me. The only way to rid yourself of Trumpism, is to get rid of Trump. It doesn't mean you have to agree on policy with Dems, not by any stretch. But for the love of God, we want normal Republicans back. We want to be able to be able to just compromise on issues with you. We need you. But this fascination with MAGA evangelical nationalism means there is no compromise when your leaders and hardcore base believe its good vs evil.
 
Icky Mettle said:
I wouldn’t be surprised if Harris wins the popular vote by more than 10 million votes. That difference is greater than the population of all but 10 states. Crazy to think that a candidate can win that many more votes and still not be elected president.
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OTOH, I’ve read a number of analysts indicate that the gender gap is doing strange things to voting models — white men in very blue states moving to Trump and women in very red states away from Trump, so the blue state margins for Harris may not match Biden 2020 or Clinton 2016 (and the red states are generally smaller so the flow toward Harris there might not even out). I think we just won’t know until we know, but there do seem to be some unusual flow/counterflow in voting.

The crazy thing is, all the data suggest that if Haley were the GOP nominee, she might win in an electoral landslide and even win the popular vote. The country’s general mood seems to be to shift right but Trump seems to be just awful enough that he is creating an opportunity for Harris to thread the needle. Trump may still win, but having him as the nominee may also be a drag on the GOP preventing what could have been a genuine red wave.
 
Little unsolicited background here but I am a lifelong conservative (fiscally not socially) who until about 12-15 years ago voted pretty much along party lines. However, within that time period I became disillusioned with the Republican party due to what I call bible thumpers and their desire to spend more time in people's bedrooms than on national policies.

With that said, I went to the Trump event yesterday in Mint Hill not because he's even remotely getting my vote but more for reasons along the lines of what I told some of my employees who know I'm no fan of his..."when the circus comes to town, you go see the clowns even if you don't like them." Had VIP access so I was only about 20 feet from him. Yes, his hands really are that tiny but I digress.

Towards the end of the speech he confirmed why I've moved further away from the Republican party. All his talk of the economy, Iran trying to kill him, bringing manufacturing back into the country, etc. elicited cheers from the crowd; however, the absolute loudest cheers (and I mean not even close) was when he talked about getting CRT out of the classroom, and transgenders, and no men in women's sports. The damn place went crazy. I just can't anymore. It's fucking disgusting. Leave people the fuck alone and focus on running the damn country instead of who people want to sleep with.
 
nycfan said:
OTOH, I’ve read a number of analysts indicate that the gender gap is doing strange things to voting models — white men in very blue states moving to Trump and women in very red states away from Trump, so the blue state margins for Harris may not match Biden 2020 or Clinton 2016 (and the red states are generally smaller so the flow toward Harris there might not even out). I think we just won’t know until we know, but there do seem to be some unusual flow/counterflow in voting.

The crazy thing is, all the data suggest that if Haley were the GOP nominee, she might win in an electoral landslide and even win the popular vote. The country’s general mood seems to be to shift right but Trump seems to be just awful enough that he is creating an opportunity for Harris to thread the needle. Trump may still win, but having him as the nominee may also be a drag on the GOP preventing what could have been a genuine red wave.
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Yep. There have been several articles in recent days about how Harris will likely only need a small popular vote victory to win the electoral college.

Similarly to how Clinton got a lot of votes in states she didn’t win (Florida, Texas), Trump seems set to gain more votes in Cali and NY. Of course, he won’t win those.
 
bdubunc01 said:
Little unsolicited background here but I am a lifelong conservative (fiscally not socially) who until about 12-15 years ago voted pretty much along party lines. However, within that time period I became disillusioned with the Republican party due to what I call bible thumpers and their desire to spend more time in people's bedrooms than on national policies.

With that said, I went to the Trump event yesterday in Mint Hill not because he's even remotely getting my vote but more for reasons along the lines of what I told some of my employees who know I'm no fan of his..."when the circus comes to town, you go see the clowns even if you don't like them." Had VIP access so I was only about 20 feet from him. Yes, his hands really are that tiny but I digress.

Towards the end of the speech he confirmed why I've moved further away from the Republican party. All his talk of the economy, Iran trying to kill him, bringing manufacturing back into the country, etc. elicited cheers from the crowd; however, the absolute loudest cheers (and I mean not even close) was when he talked about getting CRT out of the classroom, and transgenders, and no men in women's sports. The damn place went crazy. I just can't anymore. It's fucking disgusting. Leave people the fuck alone and focus on running the damn country instead of who people want to sleep with.
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Interested Idris Elba GIF

Well said. Couldn’t agree more.
 
Paine said:
Yep. There have been several articles in recent days about how Harris will likely only need a small popular vote victory to win the electoral college.

Similarly to how Clinton got a lot of votes in states she didn’t win (Florida, Texas), Trump seems set to gain more votes in Cali and NY. Of course, he won’t win those.
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Yeah, I’m having a hard time avoiding responding to the doomcasting on here, as I don’t want to be annoying. But the reality is Kamala remains in excellent shape. The overwhelming majority of variables and markers favor her right now. Barring a major mistake or an asteroid-hits-NYC type catastrophe, she will win. That doesn’t diminish the need to keep doing the work, but we can do it with enthusiasm and excitement. The end of Trump is nigh. Maybe not MAGA, but at least Trump.
 
lawtig02 said:
Yeah, I’m having a hard time avoiding responding to the doomcasting on here, as I don’t want to be annoying. But the reality is Kamala remains in excellent shape. The overwhelming majority of variables and markers favor her right now. Barring a major mistake or an asteroid-hits-NYC type catastrophe, she will win. That doesn’t diminish the need to keep doing the work, but we can do it with enthusiasm and excitement. The end of Trump is nigh. Maybe not MAGA, but at least Trump.
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Couldn’t agree more. I’ve tried to scale back on my posting as I, too, don’t want to come across as irritating or diminishing the concerns of others, but I totally agree with you. Kamala is well positioned for a resounding victory in November, and she is a clear and solid favorite.
 
CFordUNC said:
Couldn’t agree more. I’ve tried to scale back on my posting as I, too, don’t want to come across as irritating or diminishing the concerns of others, but I totally agree with you. Kamala is well positioned for a resounding victory in November, and she is a clear and solid favorite.
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Your a lot more sanguine than I am.

I've decided the average person in this country is much less grounded in logic and reality than I ever imagined possible.
 
nycfan said:
OTOH, I’ve read a number of analysts indicate that the gender gap is doing strange things to voting models — white men in very blue states moving to Trump and women in very red states away from Trump, so the blue state margins for Harris may not match Biden 2020 or Clinton 2016 (and the red states are generally smaller so the flow toward Harris there might not even out). I think we just won’t know until we know, but there do seem to be some unusual flow/counterflow in voting.

The crazy thing is, all the data suggest that if Haley were the GOP nominee, she might win in an electoral landslide and even win the popular vote. The country’s general mood seems to be to shift right but Trump seems to be just awful enough that he is creating an opportunity for Harris to thread the needle. Trump may still win, but having him as the nominee may also be a drag on the GOP preventing what could have been a genuine red wave.
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It isnt' shifting right. It's a change time. Look at Europe in the last year.
 
bdubunc01 said:
Little unsolicited background here but I am a lifelong conservative (fiscally not socially) who until about 12-15 years ago voted pretty much along party lines. However, within that time period I became disillusioned with the Republican party due to what I call bible thumpers and their desire to spend more time in people's bedrooms than on national policies.

With that said, I went to the Trump event yesterday in Mint Hill not because he's even remotely getting my vote but more for reasons along the lines of what I told some of my employees who know I'm no fan of his..."when the circus comes to town, you go see the clowns even if you don't like them." Had VIP access so I was only about 20 feet from him. Yes, his hands really are that tiny but I digress.

Towards the end of the speech he confirmed why I've moved further away from the Republican party. All his talk of the economy, Iran trying to kill him, bringing manufacturing back into the country, etc. elicited cheers from the crowd; however, the absolute loudest cheers (and I mean not even close) was when he talked about getting CRT out of the classroom, and transgenders, and no men in women's sports. The damn place went crazy. I just can't anymore. It's fucking disgusting. Leave people the fuck alone and focus on running the damn country instead of who people want to sleep with.
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I too used to be what I consider a fiscal conservative. I've rid myself of the republican party for all the reasons you stated. I also noted from his rally yesterday that the loudest cheers were when he was disparaging a certain group of people or just being generally disgusting. There is absolutely no policy based reason to vote for this man. He's not a Republican.

He hates who they hate and that's why they vote for him.
 
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lawtig02 said:
But the reality is Kamala remains in excellent shape. The overwhelming majority of variables and markers favor her right now.
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I don't agree about that reality. I would not say she is in excellent shape. Biden in 2020 was in excellent shape. Kamala is in excellent shape relative to Biden 2024, but if the overwhelming majority of variables and markers favor her right now, why are all the election models saying the race is pretty close to a tossup? You're assuming, I think, that the greater Kamala enthusiasm will turn into more Kamala votes, but we don't know that's true.

And as for that asteroid hitting NYC, I give you the impending dockworker strike:

apnews.com

Ports seek order to force dockworkers to bargaining table as strike looms at East and Gulf ports

With a strike deadline looming, the group representing East and Gulf Coast ports is asking a federal agency to make the Longshoremen’s union come to the bargaining table to negotiate a new contract.
apnews.com apnews.com

I'm trying to find the profile of the head of that union that I just read this morning. That dude DGAF and he improbably has the unliteral authority to call a strike.
 
nycfan said:
OTOH, I’ve read a number of analysts indicate that the gender gap is doing strange things to voting models — white men in very blue states moving to Trump and women in very red states away from Trump, so the blue state margins for Harris may not match Biden 2020 or Clinton 2016 (and the red states are generally smaller so the flow toward Harris there might not even out). I think we just won’t know until we know, but there do seem to be some unusual flow/counterflow in voting.

The crazy thing is, all the data suggest that if Haley were the GOP nominee, she might win in an electoral landslide and even win the popular vote. The country’s general mood seems to be to shift right but Trump seems to be just awful enough that he is creating an opportunity for Harris to thread the needle. Trump may still win, but having him as the nominee may also be a drag on the GOP preventing what could have been a genuine red wave.
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1. The candidates on the sidelines, like the quarterbacks, always look attractive. Haley "might" win a a landslide, but she'd have to get a lot more MAGA support. If MAGA was willing to support a woman of foreign parentage, we wouldn't be in such a predicament today.

2. I don't think the country's mood is shifting right. I think part of what we're seeing is the incel angst we discussed on the other thread. Put it this way: if young men would put down the porn and experience the pleasure of having sex at night, then waking up in the norming next to the same person and having again, it might be an electoral blowout.

3. The other reason that the mood seems to be shifting right is that Americans decided not to argue about COVID any more because they want to put it in the past (this does not apply to some on this board). So Trump is getting judged on the three years of his term where things were generally calm in the world despite Trump's best efforts to create storms everywhere. 2020, when the chickens came home to roost -- not only about his crisis management, but also his terrible policies -- has been excised.

That's not an ideological shift. That's just temporary exhaustion.
 
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